Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 171115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A rather benign and calm fall pattern is expected through the period
with no real concerns through the forecast period.

A cold front, associated with an upper level trough moving through
the western Great Lakes, as moved through the CWA early this
morning. Winds behind this front will pick up out of the NW today
allowing for good CAA as well as partly to mostly cloudy skies
across northern Missouri. This will allow highs to be more than 10
degrees cooler than yesterday in the 60s. The upper level trough
across the Great Lakes deepens as it moves eastward into the eastern
Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley on Saturday. This will leave the
local under cool NW flow aloft with high pressure at the surface.
Highs will be even cooler Saturday in the mid 50s to mid 60s. By
Sunday, the surface high will shift east and winds will shift to the
south allowing for warm air advecting back into the area. This
couple with height rise will allow temperatures to push back up into
the 60s.

Next week will begin with another upper level trough moving into the
western Great Lakes and driving another cold front through the CWA.
This frontal passage also looks to remain dry as most models keep
conditions dry. The exception is the GFS which provides just enough
most to produce some light showers along the front as it moves
through. With all other models including the GFS Ensemble Mean
keeping conditions dry...have opted for a dry solution. Highs Monday
should reach the mid 60s to low 70s before the frontal passage.
However, behind the front, on Tuesday, highs will be in the 60s. For
the remainder of the work week, models suggest upper level ridge
will dominate the area. This will keep conditions dry and mild for
late October standards with highs in the 60s CWA wide. Lows also
will not be worthy of freeze or even frost conditions as nightly
lows will be mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Little concern for aviators as TAFs will remain VFR through the
period. The main issue will be winds as NW winds btn 5-10kts this
morning will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts by late morning
and persist through the afternoon. This evening winds will again
subside as high pressure begins to move into the region. Expect just
a few high clouds this morning with sct cu btn 3-4kft moving into the
terminals late this morning. Skies will again clear this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73





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