Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160844

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

As previously advertised, our weather will be dominated by the interaction
between an upper level ridge to our south and upper level trough on
the West Coast. So we can continue to expect strong southerly winds
and warm temps today and tomorrow due to the tightening pressure
gradient and strengthening WAA.

The main concern for today is this morning`s dense fog advisory for
far northwestern MO until 10 am. The cold front stalled in eastern
NE and across central IA, helping calm the winds and clear the
clouds overnight creating ideal conditions for fog. Expect
visibilities to drop to a quarter of a mile or less. Rain chances for
northeastern MO will continue to diminish through 7 am as the
stalled cold front retreats back north. Clouds will clear this
afternoon for a majority of the area allowing temps to reach the
mid- 80s. Clouds may stick around a little longer along the MO/IA
border; therefore, temps there should only reach the upper 70s, low
80s. Also, wind gusts may reach 20-25 mph this afternoon, especially
in western MO and eastern KS. Monday will be even warmer and windier
than today with highs in the upper 80s, low 90s and wind gusts up to
30 mph for the entire area.

As far as the rest of the work week goes, models are now in better
agreement with what to expect. On Tuesday, the previously mentioned
cold front will make its way through the forecast area. It will be a
dry frontal passage bringing in cooler temps with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Tuesday night, the front will stall in southern MO. As it
does so, the upper level trough on the West Coast will begin to move
into the central US. This will provide upper level support for
chances of showers and a few storms starting in the early hours
Wednesday through Thursday evening. The best chances for rain will be
south and east of Interstate 35. At this time, no severe weather is
expected. Temps will continue to decrease with highs in the upper
60s, low 70s Wednesday and upper 50s, low 60s Thursday. The cold
front and upper level trough will completely push south-southeast of
the forecast area by Thursday, leaving us with mostly clear skies and
temps in the mid-60s for the weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Vast majority of the region will be under cloud cover overnight into
Sunday morning but it should be mainly VFR. Exception being northwest
MO where clouds have cleared this evening. Expect areas of dense fog
to form overnight and last a few hours past sunrise. Otherwise,
isolated showers will continue over north central and northeast MO
through the overnight hours. Maybe a few stray thunderstorms over
northeast MO.

Once clouds scatter out for the afternoon hours expect gusty
southerly winds until around sunset when windspeeds diminish.


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001-002-



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