Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170537

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Issued at 208 PM CST THU NOV 16 2017

Surface troughing taking form over the western High Plains today,
which has caused southeasterly winds in response to the gradient
increasing between the western trough and the surface ridge over
the Ohio River Valley, to the east of the region. Along with this
southerly low level flow moisture from the southern Plains and
the Gulf of Mexico region will stream into the area, providing
enough moisture to bring some low clouds and perhaps some drizzle
through the night on Friday. There will not be much in the way of
mid level support for ascent considering some weak mid level
ridging, but the isentropic component of the warm air advection
regime should be adequate to get some very light precipitation
during the overnight hours, into early Friday. The saturated layer
with this event will be rather thin, likely encompassing only the
lowest 5000-8000 feet. So while there could be some light rain,
the majority of the precipitation from this event will likely be
in the form of drizzle. After a somewhat soupy Friday, the mid
level ascent arrives in the form of a progressive shortwave
trough. This will likely organize the rain activity a bit through
the overnight hours on Friday night into more of an accumulating
precipitation event, with perhaps some thunder, given some
marginal elevated instability. Surface temperatures will be cool,
so this thunderstorm activity on Saturday morning would likely be
elevated in nature. A cold front moves through the area, bringing
falling temperatures through the day on Saturday and gusty
northwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. Currently the forecast
shows only a low in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday
morning as the rain moves out of the area, but some forecast
soundings taken from far northeast Missouri indicates some decent
lift in the dendritic growth layer with a fully sub-freezing
temperature profile and near freezing temperatures at the surface.
This would at least hint at the possibility of a few snowflakes
mixing into the liquid rain across far northern and northeastern
Missouri on Saturday morning. After the Saturday precipitation
moves out of the area, the forecast becomes dry for the remainder
of the weekend and next week. Next chance for rain could come late
next week, into next weekend, but models diverge quite a bit with
the solution of that time period.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST THU NOV 16 2017

Ceilings will continue to lower through the next several hours,
becoming MVFR within the next 1-2 hours and IFR by sunrise when
the surface warm front arrives. Patchy drizzle and reduced
visibilities are also possible, but the primary flight restriction
will be ceilings. Boundary layer mixing may eventually begin to
raise ceilings by late afternoon, but it is likely that at least
MVFR conditions will persist through the end of the TAF period.




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