Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151718

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 313 AM CST WED FEB 15 2017

The main concern in the short term will revolve around elevated fire
danger in the Thursday to Friday timeframe otherwise, the main story
will be the extremely mild temperatures. Today will be the "coolest"
day during the forecast period but will still be 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Today an upper level trough will dig from the Great
Lakes into the Ohio River Valley. This will leave the local area
under northerly flow aloft on the back side of the trough. However,
sunny skies and a relaxing of CAA should allow temperatures to rise
into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Thursday, the upper level trough
shifts east as a high amplitude upper level ridge builds into the
Plains. Strong WAA will allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 60s
to near 70 which, is 20-25 degrees above normal! However, with these
warm temperatures comes the threat of elevated fire danger. With
strong southwesterly winds dewpoint will mix out an relative
humidity values will drop into the 20s. Couple that with dry fuels,
and fire weather will be a concern. Right now winds and relative
humidity just short of criteria are precluding a watch both Thursday
and Friday. Speaking of may be the warmest day of the
forecast period as the Plains ridge moves east and the axis sets up
directly over the region. Continued southwesterly flow at the
surface will aid in highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday, the ridge flattens out as a upper level low traverses
south of the area. This should only drop temperatures a few degrees
with highs in the mid 60s to near 70. Saturday night into Sunday a
upper level trough will dig into the southwestern CONUS allowing
upstream ridging to again build over the region. Expect highs again
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The next chance for precipitation will come Sunday night into Monday
as the southwestern trough moves into the southern High Plains and
warm air advection showers spread into the area. On Monday, the
upper level trough develops a closed low in the base of the trough
that will then move slowly across Texas Monday through Tuesday. This
will continue shower chances through the beginning of the next work


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST WED FEB 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A weak surface
ridge will move across the area, leading to period of time of
variable winds this afternoon, as winds transition from northerly
to southwesterly this evening. Winds will increase from the
southwest and become gusty by late tomorrow morning.




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