Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Quiet weather pattern persisting this afternoon as upper ridging
continues to build across the Central and Northern Rockies. With sfc
ridge axis once again extending south across the Lwr Missouri
Vly...expect a similar night to to last night...although a degree or
two warmer as 850-hPa temps continue to moderate through the
overnight period. Much of the same on Wednesday with high pressure
once again providing a pleasant and seasonal day.

Next weather feature of interest expected to start impacting the area
early Thursday morning as a weak warm front slowly approaches from
the west. As was stated yesterday...any precip development from
increasing isentropic ascent will likely struggle to reach the
surface as aforementioned sfc ridge axis continues to supply a fair
amount of dry air directly off the deck. Due to model/s consistency
in recent days...have maintained slgt chc mention across the far
northwest early Thurs morning.

Unsettled fcst continues to take shape as we head into the
the Thursday/Friday time frame as shortwave energy consolidates over
the Central Plains and slowly advances east. As this occurs...sfc
low also expected to track east with southward precip development
expected along the lingering warm front. Overall severe weather
chances look marginal based on poor wind fields and instability...but
will continue to monitor later model trends as event timing nears.
Storm chances to continue through the day on Friday as main cold
front advances east...but again...widespread severe continues to look
marginal. Precip to gradually come to an end from west to east as
main frontal boundary moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Once the cold front passes over the CWA, another dry air mass will
filter into the area through the early portions of the weekend.
Given the placement of the cold front as it pushes eastward with
subsequent northerly flow at the surface, a thermal gradient will
develop near the Kansas and Missouri border as return southerly flow
affects much of the Central Plains. By the late weekend, seasonal
temperatures will return as surface high pressure brings about
southerly flow over the area underneath a developing ridge. This
ridge will extend as far north as the Northern Plains through the
late weekend. Temperatures will continue to increase through the
early portions of next week, as the ridge continues to influence the
region. This will keep chances of precipitation to a minimum with
ample dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
a few hours of fog is possible at KSTJ as air temperatures drop well
below MO river water temperatures. Very light east northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and increase to around 6-7 kts during the
morning hours Wednesday. Isolated cumulus with bases around 5 kft
may develop by late morning Wednesday, and will persist through the
early evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...Laflin



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