Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231137

537 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A combination of low end MVFR to high end IFR conditions dot western
Missouri early this morning with showers buried deep in the stratus
cloud cover. Clouds and winds should remain relatively unchanged
through much of the morning, though flight categories could jump
around a little due to conditions riding on the edge of the MVFR and
IFR categories. A cold front will begin transiting the terminals this
afternoon and into this evening, bringing strong and gusty northwest
winds tonight. Additionally, temperatures might fall fast enough to
allow for some mixed precipitation to develop at the tail end of the
current TAF cycle. Have only added in the mix for the KSTJ terminal
owing to it location farthest north, but later TAF updates will
continue to watch this potential for all the terminals.




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