Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Issued at 327 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Well-advertised cold front is currently draped across southeastern NE
into west-central IA, aiding in blossoming up convection. Out ahead
of the frontal boundary, residing within the warm sector is this
forecast area. Despite showers and cloud cover that has persisted
throughout much of the day, plentiful instability is available and
coincides with increasing 0-6km shear values. Additionally, ample
moisture has been pooling in with PWATs approaching 2 inches, perhaps
exceeding the 2 inch mark by later this evening. LL lapse rates have
been much better today as compared to yesterday across the southern
half of the forecast area. To bring it all together, severe threat
looks to be on track to pan out this afternoon into the evening hours
with the primary hazard continuing to be gusty to damaging winds.
Hail and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, with hail found
in any stronger storm that may develop and be able to maintain a
decently organized updraft.

As the sun sets and diurnal heating is lost, the severe threat could
persist into the late evening hours but overall, the event will
transition into more of a hydro situation that bears watching. As
aforementioned, PWAT values are more than sufficient to allow for
efficient rain producers and combining the available moisture with
training of storms yields the opportunity for locations to experience
flooding issues, despite the relatively high flash flood guidance for
many locations. Parallel flow riding over the front as it slows and
eventually stalls will allow for continued firing of convection over
the same locations tonight. Models have been trending further
southward with the bullseye and given the current observational
trends, have agreed with this assessment, thereby prompting the Flash
Flood Watch to be expanded to include the KC metro area. Much of the
main activity should diminish by sunrise Thursday as the nocturnal
LLJ winds down, although showers and storms may very well persist
into the mid-morning hours.

For the remainder of the forecast period, it continues to remain
unsettled looking with perhaps another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall to happen tomorrow night. Ridging to the south and east is
allowing for perturbations to ride its periphery right across the
local region and southerly to southwesterly flow to allow for a
continued source of moisture advecting in. Temperatures throughout
the rest of the week into next week look to remain near normal for
this time of year with the coolest day forecast for Friday behind the
front that`ll wash out to the south of the area.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

The bulk of the heavier showers and storms will affect mainly
northeast into central MO through the pre-dawn hours of Thursday
morning. Scattered convection with VFR ceilings will persist through
the rest of the night into mid Thursday morning. Should also see
Ceilings lower to MVFR over east central KS into northwest and west
central MO by the pre-dawn hours. Should see these ceilings rise to
VFR by late morning and remain VFR through the afternoon.

Much uncertainty exists as to the evolution of late afternoon and
evening convection due to existing boundaries left over from
overnight convection. However, best bet for seeing convection appears
to be Thursday evening.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ006>008-



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