Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170918
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2017

The continued unseasonably warm temperatures appear to be a staple
in the forecast for the forseeable future. While there will be some
fluctuations over the next seven days, above normal readings can be
expected as periods of upper ridging and Pacific-origin systems fail
to pull Canadian air southward into the central CONUS. High
temperatures in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s can be
expected today through much of next work week.

In the short-term, the primary focus will be fire weather concerns
this afternoon. Went closer to RAP dewpoints with moderate mixing
with southwesterly winds. With highs in the 70s, relative humidity
values falling between 25-30 percent, breezy southwest winds, and
dry fuels, the stage is set for very high fire danger this
afternoon. Wind speeds will be lower today compared to yesterday,
and this will limit the widespread potential for explosive fire
weather behavior. Still, outdoor burning is discouraged.

Two potential windows for precipitation exists during the forecast,
the first coming on Monday. A large upper trough approaches the
Central Plains with a return of moisture in advance. While most
areas should see at least light precipitation, there is a non-trivial
chance that the most persistent activity will split the CWA,
following closely the track of two upper lows within the trough. The
second round of precipitation is expected Thursday night into Friday
morning. Operational models are in decent agreement with timing and
position of a dynamic negatively-tilted trough ejecting into the
Central Plains. Still a long way out, but would also need to monitor
potential for thunderstorms with this system if it continues to
evolve as models suggest.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST THU FEB 16 2017

Persistent south-southwest winds the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies and VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Hawblitzel


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