Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291638 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh


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