Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192008
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms earlier today have moved off toward the
east, leaving the forecast area dry by mid-afternoon. As a frontal
boundary drops south across the area tonight, could still perhaps
see some redevelopment overnight in the northeastern and eastern
portions of the forecast area, right along the edge of upper-level
ridging as a weak vort max rotates around. By mid-morning
tomorrow, any precip that developed should have exited from the
forecast area. The next better chances for showers and perhaps
thunderstorms appears overnight Monday into Tuesday and then again
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. There could be some additional
chances between those two time periods but the signals are
relatively weak in comparison. Zonal flow aloft over the region
initially this week will transition into a "ring of fire" setup
before a stout low pressure system/trough marches through by the
end of the week. For the precip chances through the middle of the
week, it`ll be due more to a somewhat unsettled pattern with weak
shortwaves traversing through. As the ridge axis amplifies toward
the end of the week, warm, moist air will advect in, allowing for
warm sector storms to potentially fire up before the main system
moves through. While there are differences of course in the ECMWF
and GFS with the details by then, it currently looks like they
both agree on precip clearing out by the latter half of next
weekend.

Temperatures tonight into tomorrow will be well above normal
despite the aforementioned front moving through tonight. However,
cooler, more seasonable temps move in for the middle of the week,
followed by another modest rise in the latter part of the week and
perhaps into the weekend. Could see some adjustments based on just
how much warm air advects in Thursday and Friday ahead of the
system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

SE to southerly winds today will persist through this evening
before a front slides through the area. As it does so, wind shear
looks to become a problem overnight as surface winds slacken but
the LLJ cranks up. As the winds aloft simmer down by tomorrow
morning, could see some LL clouds settling in over the terminals,
but not much confidence yet on how thick or low they might get.
Therefore, went with SCT mention for now and will reassess next
issuance.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg



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