Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202040
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Tonight - Saturday:

For the very short term isolated convection is possible near the
eastern CWA boundary through around 23z. This locates the edge of
the mid level lid lies as well as a congestion of cumulus and the
arrival of an outflow boundary heading west.

Otherwise, the main story/emphasis continues to focus on the
prolonged period of oppressive heat and high humidity...in other
words a mini-heat wave. A large and expansive dome of high pressure
aloft centered over the Southern Plains/KS will move little during
this period. Models have continued to project a gradual warming in
the 925mb-850mb levels leading to a slight day-to-day increase in
high temperatures. Plus, the medium range operational models signal
a chance for a weak boundary...convectively induced?...to sag south
to near the MO/IA border by Friday morning. With so many models
suggesting this outcome one can justify at least slight chance PoPs
for northern MO by Friday. Should such a boundary force its way
south it not only would bring a small chance for convection but also
result in the low-level thermal ridge bending over and across the
CWA and create compressional warming. Thus, Friday still looks like
the hottest and most uncomfortable day.

Bottom line...no changes needed to the current excessive heat
warning.

Will need to keep an eye on the moisture plume streaming through the
Southern Rockies/CO Friday/Saturday as the model trends slight
flatten the upper ridge allowing for a more west-east flow. So any
embedded feature could track across southern NE and possibly inject
chance PoPs. Just something to keep in the back of ones mind down
the road.

Sunday through Wednesday:

An upper level shortwave trough is ticketed to track east through
the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley early in the period. This
will likely force a cold front southward and probably into the CWA
sometime Sunday night. While previous model runs tended to slow down
the arrival of this front they are starting to come into better
agreement on timing. There is also some question as to whether or
not it will hang around somewhere in or near the CWA and thus the
need to throw in chance PoPs for most of this period. In addition,
the upper flow becomes northwesterly and favors the potential for
embedded impulses to generate nocturnal type convection/MCSs. So
will broadbrush forecast with 30-50% PoPs.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

While can`t rule out an isolated storm or two over parts of central
and northeast MO this afternoon expect VFR conditions during the
period. Little in the way of clouds over northwest and west central
MO and winds generally less than 10kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ


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