Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151130

530 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

Issued at 314 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A strong upper system and associated surface low are currently
spinning over Kansas with a slow northeastern movement. The leading
area of rainfall has pushed into eastern portions of the forecast
area with a dry slot working across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. This whole system will continue to shift slowly
northeastward through the day. Precipitation will likely fill back
in closer to the surface low later this morning and as such,
precipitation chances will increase across northwestern and northern
Missouri through the day. Models continue to indicate some
instability building across the northern half of the forecast area
late this morning and this afternoon. So there remains the potential
for embedded storms. Conditions also still look favorable for a few
cold-core upper-low funnel clouds as low level lapse rates steepen
underneath the closed 500mb low. A narrow corridor of higher
dewpoints ahead of the a surface boundary nosing into the surface low
all supports this notion, although it will really depend on how much
destabilization can occur. If there is greater destabilization then
the potential for this will increase. As cold air begins to move
into the area, light snow or a wintry mix is likely to occur.
Accumulations look to be nil to very light at this time.

Cold air should then remain in place across the area through the end
of the week and there will be at least two periods of time we`ll
need to monitor for the potential for accumulating snowfall. The
first will occur in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Models
have not portrayed a consistent image with this scenario with the
GEM and the ECMWF showing light precipitation occurring ahead of a
weak upper wave. The GFS shunts this moisture to the southeast of
our area leaving us dry. For now have maintained the lower chance
PoPs for this period of time as confidence is limited due to the
inconsistent model trends. The second period to monitor will come
Friday into Saturday. All the models show a wave moving across the
center of the country with widespread precipitation depicted.
However, the GFS remains the most northerly of the three taking a
favorable track for accumulating snowfall for our area. The GEM and
ECMWF show a more southern track, generally south of the Arkansas
River and into the Southeastern US, leaving northwestern Missouri
dry. As with the earlier system, lack of consistency in the models
precludes carrying a higher chance of precipitation. Should any of
the more favorable models verify, it would bring at least several
inches of snow to the local area by the weekend. Fortunately, there
remains ample time to for these systems to be better depicted by the
models with more consistency.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A strong storm system is currently affecting the area and is expected
to pass to the north of the terminals later today. This will have
several effects to the forecast. The first is that drier air
entraining into the system on the south side should lead to a more
broken and potentially higher ceiling. This could also lead to bit
more instability and as such, have continued with -SHRA mention. The
chances for a thunderstorm at any terminal today are too small to
mention in the forecast at this time. The front will move through the
terminals around noon and winds will begin to veer to the west and
increase in speed. Wind gusts of around 25kts seem likely in the wake
of the front. By the overnight hours, as the systems begins to pull
away from the area, ceilings are expected to trend toward VFR but may
still remain broken or even overcast.




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