Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 051739

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1139 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Issued at 310 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

What goes up, must come down. After record warm warmth, temperatures
have crashed... back to near normal, which for this time of year is
around 43 for the Kansas City area. With another lobe of upper level
PV rotating through the area today, and strong winds aloft, Tuesday
will be another windy day across the area. It likely won`t be as
strong as the day before but we should see 15 to 25 mph sustained
winds from the morning through the afternoon hours. Winds could gust
in the 30 to 35 mph range before diminishing this evening and
overnight. This wind will be occurring in a very dry air mass,
with humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. Given this
combination, very high fire danger is expected across the region,
especially northwestern MO and northeastern KS where very dry
conditions have persisted in the last few weeks to month.

Near normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs in
the lower to middle 40s expected. But another surge of colder air
will move into the area Wednesday night with temperatures falling
into the teens and 20s by the morning. This cold start will make it
hard to warm up much and we should see highs on Thursday struggle
into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Some recovery is likely by
Friday but confidence decrease into Saturday as models vary the
intensity of a trough digging into the Midwest and Great Lakes
region. The GFS is much stronger with this trough and as result is
much stronger with its cold advection into the region. The ECMWF
is more in line with the GFS ensembles, on the warm side of the
guidance, and the Canadian is somewhere in the middle. This
uncertainty amounts to about 15 to 20 degrees of spread between
the models in our western zones. Given the upper pattern, it`s
likely we`ll see a strong east to west temperatures gradient with
highs in the upper 20s in northeastern MO and lower 40s in eastern

The forecast is mostly dry for the next seven days. But there will
be clipper systems that will bring brief shots of light
precipitation to the region. Models have backed off in the intensity
of one clipper for Friday. Models show a dry forecast and soundings
suggest there will be enough low level dry air to keep precipitation
from reaching the ground. None-the-less, there is some mid-level
forcing which may lead to light precipitation in northwestern MO. So
have trimmed PoPs substantially but have left some slights
mentioned in far northwest MO. With temperatures in the teens and
20s, this would be flurries to light snow.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period as high pressure
continues to settle into the area. Gusty WNW winds up to 28 kts
this afternoon will begin to weaken slightly this evening, before
changing to the northwest after 12z. Scattered midlevel clouds
centered around 8 kft will move into the area late this afternoon
and persist through much of the overnight hours before clearing
after daybreak.




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