Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 282049
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Forecast concerns for this aviation forecast cycle are mainly
centered around convection tonight. Surface boundary draped from the
eastern Dakotas into central and western Kansas forecast to progress
south and east towards the TAF sites tonight, as upper low over the
northern Plains moves east along the Canada/US border. Best threat
for thunderstorm activity appears to be confined to northern
Missouri, north of TAF sites, due to diurnal timing issues and
proximity to better upper level support. Northerly winds are expected
late in the forecast cycle following frontal passage. Outside of the
potential for convective activity, VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Mitchell


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