Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221701
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 414 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Big picture across the Nation this morning shows a rather flat
pattern in place at the moment with a modest ridge traversing the
middle of the continent. This ridge will continue to move east
today, helping shove the nice dry surface high that settled across
the Plains States this weekend to our east. This will help trend
temperatures up over the next few days, with highs in the 80s.
However, this will also set the stage for our next round of storms
mid-work week.

Of interest to the forecast for later this week is the potent trough
moving east across British Columbia early this morning. As this
trough moves east through the Canadian Plains it will induce a bit
of stormy activity as moisture returns from the Gulf start making
their way back into Kansas and Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary
that will develop across the Northern High Plains later today. The
nocturnal jet, later tonight across the Southern Plains, will likely
result in sufficient moisture advection to spark thunderstorms across
southern Missouri early Tuesday morning which will likely continue
northeast into northern Missouri through the day with a focus for
continued thunderstorm activity eventually shifting north into Iowa
Tuesday night. There is a severe threat Tuesday as models advertise
0-6KM shear values around 25 knots with CAPE values greater than 2000
J/KG Tuesday afternoon into the evening, though these specific values
seem to coincide mostly in far northwest Missouri. Currently, large
hail, damaging winds and locally flooding rains are the expected
threats for Tuesday mostly in areas along and west of I-35.

As the Canadian trough moves farther east Wednesday the frontal
boundary from Northern Plains will sweep southeast into Kansas and
Missouri sometime later that day, likely providing more stormy
activity Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening across northern
Missouri. Severe potential for Wednesday looks a bit lower, but will
be very dependent on the antecedent conditions. After which, the
front will continue to settle south and cooler drier air will once
again filter into the region for a day or two before another
shortwave trough moves through the Northern Plains bringing another
chance for storms Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the afternoon and into the evening
hours at all four TAF sites. As surface high pressure moseys on off
toward the east and southerly flow advects in lower-level moisture
again, could see some lower-level clouds attempting to build in
during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Should be able to hone in on
the details for the next issuance. As for storm chances, current
indications point toward holding off at the TAF sites until right
toward the very end of this TAF period so have negated inclusion at
this time. As already alluded to, southerly winds will prevail.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...lg


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