Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 071115

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

Issued at 353 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

There are few concerns in the short term this forecast package. The
first issue will be the fog across the area this morning. Mid-level
clouds over the western CWA should preclude fog there. However, over
the eastern CWA, clear skies and light winds have lead to areas of
fog with patchy areas of dense fog locally reducing visibilities to
1/4 to 1/2 a mile. Fog will persist through mid-morning before
burning off. High pressure will remain in control over the area
under partly sunny skies leading the way to mild conditions with
highs in the mid 70s. Tonight, a upper level shortwave trough will
move from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing a
trailing cold front into eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas. With
the better forcing well north of the area on Thursday morning, the
cold front will slowly sag into the northwestern portion of the
forecast area. WAA out ahead of this front will allow highs to rise
into the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday afternoon. Late Thursday
afternoon, the front will still be stalled across the northwestern
CWA when a fast moving secondary shortwave will move into the area
from the central Plains. This secondary shortwave will force the
front southward providing lift for showers and thunderstorm
development. The best moisture and instability (1000J/kg of MUCAPE)
will be along and south of the I-70 corridor where the best chance
for thunderstorms will exist. Storms will continue through Thursday
night before the front clears the southern CWA by Friday morning.

High pressure will move into the area behind the front on Friday
with cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s. However, a warming trend
is expected through the weekend as upper level ridging shifts
eastward from the Rockies. By Sunday, surface high pressure will
shift east allowing for modest southwesterly winds as the upper
ridge moves into the region. This will allow for highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. On Monday an upper level trough will dig through
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing a cold front
through the area. This will cool temperatures a few degrees but with
no cold air evident behind the front temperatures will continue to
remain above normal in the mid to upper 70s through the middle of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

The main concern for aviators durg this TAF pd will be fog. Fog is
persisting at the terminals this morning with areas of patchy dense
fog. Vsbys at STJ are 1/4SM and are expected to remain in LIFR thru
15Z before fog finally burns off. Otrw...vsbys at all other TAF sites will
generally bounce around btn 2SM-6SM thru 15Z. Aft 15Z expect VFR
conds to prevail with sct-bkn clouds btn 6-8kft. Fog will again be
likely at STJ aft 05Z with vsbys poss again reduced to IFR conds.
Winds thru the pd will generally be lgt and vrb before picking up
out of the south around 5kts tonight.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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