Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 232328

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
528 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Issued at 306 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

The next couple of days will continue to be benign with temps running
above normal. Surface southwesterly flow has brought in warm, dry
air, forcing temps up into the upper 50s across northern MO to lower
60s in eastern KS and central MO. Southerly flow will dominate
through the middle of the week, keeping the warmer air flowing into
the area with moisture eventually coming along with it. By early
Wednesday, looks like enough lower level moisture will be in place to
bring not only overcast skies, but drizzle along with the clouds. As
the day progresses, measurable rain chances will slowly be on the
rise, ramping up overnight Wednesday into Thursday. With PWATs
approaching around 1.4 inches on Thanksgiving Day, respectable rain
amounts will be possible across the forecast area. Over the course of
Wednesday through Friday, could see rain totals ranging anywhere from
just under an inch and a half to nearly 2.5 inches. Will need to keep
an eye on potential hydrological impacts but the rain will hopefully
be spread out enough to not warrant any significant flooding
concerns, although rises in area rivers will be a possibility.

Additional impacts for the upcoming holiday include falling
temperatures behind a cold front moving through late Thursday. The
bulk of the precipitation should remain ahead of the front, but
lingering precip on the backside could allow for wintry precipitation
to mix in. With the event still a few days out and models continuing
to refine themselves (the wintry portion of this system falls outside
of higher res models), nailing down the specifics with respect to
precip types are yet to be confidently seen. Model thermal profiles
are hinting at a mid-level warm nose sticking around overnight
Thursday into early Friday despite temps falling near or below
freezing at the surface. For Friday, temps should rise back above
freezing area-wide so a broader chance for light rain exists as
opposed to a more widespread wintry weather situation. Regardless of
the precip type for this time frame, accumulations look to be on the
low side.

While most will see a brief period of dry weather after the Friday
precip clears out, precip chances return again toward the end of the
weekend. However, differences in model solutions lowers the
confidence in the details. With much cooler air in place as compared
to the early portion of this week, the wintry precipitation chances
linger, particularly during overnight hours with temps dropping into
the 20s. Stay tuned as this event`s time draws closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just few-sct high clouds
expected. The main concern for aviators will be the winds during the
late morning/afternoon tomorrow when south winds btn 5-10kts
increases to 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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