Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 130705
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
205 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 70 to 90% chance for thunderstorms this evening and
  overnight. There is a Slight (10 to 15%) Risk of severe
  storms. Hail up golf ball size, 60 mph wind gusts, and locally
  heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are the
  primary concerns.

- 60 to 80% chance for thunderstorms into central Missouri
  Thursday Afternoon and evening. There is a Slight (10 to 15%)
  Risk of severe storms. Hail up to golf ball size, 60 mph wind
  gusts are the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Through 1 AM, convection has calmed across central Missouri as the
remaining activity continues to outpace the remaining available
instability but several lingering updrafts persist with the aid of
the LLJ. Through sunrise, the stout mid-level short wave will
continue to exit the region to the east. In its place, brief mid-
level ridging will develop ahead of the larger western trough
churning across the Inter-mountain west. 06Z surface analysis
reveals a developing surface low off the western High Plains of
southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. A warm front extends to
the east, nearly along and south the OK/KS border toward the
Arkansas Ozarks. South of this feature, stronger southerly flow
exists along with dew points in the mid 50s. Through the day, this
boundary will lift to the north, across the Flint Hills and Ozark
Plateau, reaching the lower Missouri Valley around 20 to 21Z (3 to 4
PM). Robust return flow in the boundary layer will usher in upper
50s to near 60 dew points. At the same time, the surface trough will
continue to track eastward outstretched from the OK/TX panhandles
into central Kansas. A decent EML will exist through late in the
afternoon. CAMs are in general agreement with the decrease in the
capping inversion through 23 to 00Z, with convective initiation along
the warm front generally around 00z (7 PM) but could be delayed a
few hours. Initial focus for convection will be along the Missouri
River valley, across the KC Metro, and west toward Lawrence and
Topeka. Ample instability will develop across the warm sector with
MLCAPE values between 1500 and 2000 J/Kg. Shear will be sufficient,
with deep layer shear on the order of 30 to 40 kts. Similar to last
night, LCLs will be high 3000 to 5000 ft, which would suggest
elevated hailers will be the primary concern. However, the
difference compared to last night will be the focusing provided by
the warm front. With backed winds at the surface and veering
profiles with height, any storm that anchors on the boundary may
have a low risk of a tornado with the early development. Overall,
storms will pose a modest severe hail risk, with profiles supportive
of half dollars to golf ball sized, with an isolated risk of up to
two inch hail. To the west, between the I-135 and I-35 corridors in
Kansas, a triple point will develop, which would be the more likely
location for the more robust supercellular development through the
late evening. Through 02 to 06Z (9 PM to 1 AM) storms will likely
form into an organized line along/near the warm front, with slow
progression east across the region. Given this trend and considering
the efficiency of storms last night, there`s an increasing concern of
isolated flash flooding, especially if storms begin to train along
the warm front before finally developing a strong enough cold pool
to promote more progressive motion to the south and southeast.

Through Thursday morning the trailing cold front associated with the
extensive surface trough will begin to advance southeastward off the
northern Plains. By midday, the warm sector will still exist off the
Ozark Plateau and north, generally east of the I-35 corridor. A
modest capping inversion will remain in place while recovery
commences ahead of the cold front into mid-Missouri. Through mid to
late afternoon, as the inversion breaks down, expect convection to
form along the cold front in central Missouri. Storms will be
working with a strong shear environment, that may be detrimental to
actual deep convection, 50kts + of 0-6km bulk shear. Regardless,
with 1500 to 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE, hail will be the primary concern,
with up to half dollar to golf ball size with the strongest
updrafts along the front.

Friday, with the front settling to the south, a surface ridge will
gradually build across the region. To the west, the H500 trough
remains stalled, churning over the Mojave. Into saturday, it will
begin to slowly advance east across Arizona but another dry cold
front will sweep down the plains and across the area as the broader
eastern Canadian trough ushers in a strong open trough riding along
the periphery into the western Great Lakes. This will bring a return
to more normal temperatures Sunday, highs in the 50s, with cooler
temperatures, in the 40s for highs on Monday. Into mid-next week,
temperatures will rebound as ridging increases ahead of the slow
moving western trough anchored over the Four Corners.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the Kansas-Missouri terminals
through the rest of the night till around noon Wednesday as the
current early mornings storms will keep moving east. However,
convection is expected to return around sunset Wednesday as a
warm front lifts through the region. This will likely result in
lots of convection near the terminals Wednesday night.
Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally out of the south to
southeast for the next 24 hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Cutter


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