Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 172014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
214 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 214 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

A much quieter forecast is in store for the area through the rest of
the week. Stratus is currently solidly in place across the area, which
has kept the temperatures a little cooler than anticipated. With
currently temperatures in the middle to upper 30s at 2 pm it`s unlikely
at this point that temperatures will max out in the 40s, at least
across areas north of HWY 50. The stratus is expected to remain in the
area through the evening and perhaps through the overnight hours before
some gradual clearing tonight. There is some uncertainly regarding
stratus clearing out around midnight or later in the overnight hours
into Wednesday morning. Should the stratus clear out around midnight
the light winds will help bring conditions favorable for some radiation
fog by Wed morning. While widespread dense fog is not anticipated at
this time there could certainly be some haze through the morning on
Wednesday, with perhaps some patchy dense fog, most likely in the
western and northern parts of Missouri. In the mid levels a broad and
somewhat weak trough is located over the desert southwest and it will
ultimately lumber its way northeast into the Central Plains later this
week. As this mid level wave moves slowly northeast a weak surface
circulation will form across the High Plains, which will effectively
cause a warm front to move north of the forecast area, leaving all of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri in a bit of a warm sector. This
will help the temperatures squeak into the 50s for the middle part of
the week, (perhaps upper 40s in far northern MO) where they will stay
for the forseeable future. As this weak mid level wave moves through
the area it will bring enough lift for some light showers in central
Missouri Wed night into Thursday morning. Expect only light activity
with these showers with some scattered ~.05" amounts.

After some short wave ridging for the late part of the week and into
Saturday, temperatures will generally reside in the lower 50s in
northern Missouri to the upper 50s (perhaps a smattering of 60s) in
central Missouri. The next appreciable chance for rain comes late in
the weekend as a very potent trough ejects into and through the
southern Plains. This trough looks to be a severe weather producer for
the Gulf Coast and Southeast regions, but for the Mid/Lower Missouri
River Valley the main lobe of energy is progged to go too far south to
bring much in the way of impactful weather. Instead there will be some
scattered rain showers, perhaps some steady rain through Sunday night
into Monday morning. There could also be a mixture of some light
wintery weather across northwestern Missouri where temperatures could
approach freezing. But with better chances for rain remaining south and
east of there, the chances at this point for any impactful weather from
this weekend system is minimal.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

Expect low stratus to persist for the next couple hours before gradual
transition to MVFR this afternoon. The 00z to 06z time frame is a bit
fuzzier with respect to the stratus, with NAM soundings indicating
some low clouds hanging in there through midnight. After that
things look to clear out, then some haze/fog for the morning
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton



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