Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 250844
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR conds will cont at the TAF sites thru the period with the
exception of STJ which will experience steam fog. Expect fog at STJ btn
09Z-13Z with vsbys occasionally being reduced to 1/4SM. Otrw expect
lgt northerly winds thru the period at all the TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73


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