Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KEAX 051058
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

What goes up, must come down. After record warm warmth, temperatures
have crashed... back to near normal, which for this time of year is
around 43 for the Kansas City area. With another lobe of upper level
PV rotating through the area today, and strong winds aloft, Tuesday
will be another windy day across the area. It likely won`t be as
strong as the day before but we should see 15 to 25 mph sustained
winds from the morning through the afternoon hours. Winds could gust
in the 30 to 35 mph range before diminishing this evening and
overnight. This wind will be occurring in a very dry air mass,
with humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. Given this
combination, very high fire danger is expected across the region,
especially northwestern MO and northeastern KS where very dry
conditions have persisted in the last few weeks to month.

Near normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs in
the lower to middle 40s expected. But another surge of colder air
will move into the area Wednesday night with temperatures falling
into the teens and 20s by the morning. This cold start will make it
hard to warm up much and we should see highs on Thursday struggle
into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Some recovery is likely by
Friday but confidence decrease into Saturday as models vary the
intensity of a trough digging into the Midwest and Great Lakes
region. The GFS is much stronger with this trough and as result is
much stronger with its cold advection into the region. The ECMWF
is more in line with the GFS ensembles, on the warm side of the
guidance, and the Canadian is somewhere in the middle. This
uncertainty amounts to about 15 to 20 degrees of spread between
the models in our western zones. Given the upper pattern, it`s
likely we`ll see a strong east to west temperatures gradient with
highs in the upper 20s in northeastern MO and lower 40s in eastern
KS.

The forecast is mostly dry for the next seven days. But there will
be clipper systems that will bring brief shots of light
precipitation to the region. Models have backed off in the intensity
of one clipper for Friday. Models show a dry forecast and soundings
suggest there will be enough low level dry air to keep precipitation
from reaching the ground. None-the-less, there is some mid-level
forcing which may lead to light precipitation in northwestern MO. So
have trimmed PoPs substantially but have left some slights
mentioned in far northwest MO. With temperatures in the teens and
20s, this would be flurries to light snow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 458 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Westerly winds will
increase this morning and become sustained around 15kts with gusts
to 25kts. Winds will decrease this evening and become light
overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.