Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 072047
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Then ceilings will
begin to drop as colder air moves into the area. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon from the west-northwest. There may be some
decrease in winds at sunset but winds are expected to continue
increasing overall later tonight and especially through the day
tomorrow. The other issue will isolated to scattered snow
showers/squalls in the area. Given the coverage will continue with
just a low impact -SHSN mention. But if a terminal sees a heavier
squall there will be brief IFR conditions. The most likely timing of
this should be from around 09Z through 15Z with coverage diminishing
later tomorrow morning and afternoon.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB


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