Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 132317
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
517 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 PM CST MON FEB 13 2017

Forecast for the coming week is rather quite with no potential for
any form of precipitation till early next work week.

Pattern across the Nation this afternoon is dominated by a split
flow; with a high amplitude ridge over the West Coast and a
closed low burrowing under the ridge axis across the Desert
Southwest. A little closer to home a shortwave trough in the
northern stream is noted scooting southeast into the Great Lakes
region. Between the southwest low and northern stream trough, a
band of light rain (likely just sprinkles owing to the dry
boundary layer) developed across Kansas this morning and shifted
east into Missouri. Later tonight this band will fade as the main
southwest low moves east into Texas before it gets swept east by
the northern stream trough. This will likely limit the rain shield
on the north side of the low to areas just along and south of our
forecast area for tonight.

Weather for the rest of the work week and into the weekend will be
dry as the ridge over the West Coast moves east. This will result in
another couple days of cool (40s and 50s), though above
seasonally normal, temperatures before the ridge axis approaches
and southerly winds start lifting temperatures back up for the
later half of the work week (60s and maybe 70s). The late work
week and weekend warm weather will have the effect of lowering
humidity values, which are already rather low given the winter
season. The question for later this week will be wind conditions,
as any strong or gusty winds late this week in combination with
the low humidity will quickly result in elevated fire weather
conditions.

For early next work week...mid-range models persist in advertising
the westerlies across the Pacific buckling, resulting in a large
trough sweeping east across the Nation starting this weekend.
Timing for this trough would indicate that this will open up the
Gulf late in the weekend, resulting in a return of higher humidity
values, along with rain chances Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures
appear to be warm enough next week to preclude any chance of
wintry precipitation types.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST MON FEB 13 2017

Abundant dry air in the lower levels will mitigate precipitation
chances through the evening hours, though a brief period of light
rain is possible before 06Z. Better chances of precip reaching the
surface will commence overnight, though should remain south of
the terminals. VFR stratus will gradually erode by Tuesday morning
with winds becoming northerly behind a weak cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh



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