Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121126

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Issued at 340 AM CDT THU OCT 12 2017

The surface high has been making its way across the state, allowing
for some radiation cooling, especially in western MO and eastern
KS. This should allow temperatures to drop below the crossover
temperature resulting in some fog development. However, wind
speeds are on an increasing trend as a surface low develops over
the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient ahead of it.
Therefore, patchy fog across the area seems the most likely
scenario this morning.

Today, temperatures will warm into the 70s, thanks to our wind shift
to southerly flow. Temperatures will warm another 10 degrees for
most of the area Friday as the surface low and attendant cold
front move into our area, increasing WAA out ahead of it. The
arrival of this system will bring storms chances late Friday
through Sunday, with the front being the focus point for them.
Early Saturday, the front will stall across northern MO and KS.
The 850 mb LLJ will strengthen around this time, helping create
elevated storm chances along the boundary (mainly along and north
of HWY 36). During the day Saturday, the stationary boundary will
lift north into IA as a warm front allowing even warmer
temperatures to advect into the area, which should create decent
instability (~1500 J/kg). At the upper levels, a shortwave trough
will carve through the Midwest and Upper Plains providing strong
southwesterly flow which will allow for ample deep layer shear
(40-50 kts). Both the instability and shear will be co- located,
so strong to severe storms are possible across northern MO/KS
during the afternoon/evening and central MO/KS after sunset.
Storms may have supercellular features initially in northern
MO/KS, but once the cold front starts pushing through the area
Saturday night and the 850 mb LLJ strengthens (50-60 kts), storms
should become linear. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
concerns, with concerns shifting to mainly damaging winds for the
overnight hours. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches, which is
abnormally high for this time of year. Therefore, heavy rain is
expected with localized flooding being a possibility.

The cold front and storms should exit the area by Sunday afternoon,
with a surface high pressure moving in behind it. This will cool
temperatures into the 60s and 70s and keep us dry for much of next


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU OCT 12 2017

Patchy fog has formed mainly in areas of far western MO and far
eastern KS despite winds being greater than 5 kts. Additionally,
a stratus deck has pushed its way west and north, dropping
ceilings as low as VLIFR with some pockets of MVFR ceilings in
central MO. There is some uncertainty of when VFR conditions will
return, but general consensus is visibilities will increase and
the clouds will scatter out around noon in far western MO and
eastern KS. The clouds will clear in a west to east fashion,
finally letting Kirksville and surrounding areas see clear skies
this evening. Winds will pick up this afternoon, as a surface low
approaches the area, tightening the pressure gradient. Expect
winds to diminish some after sunset. Low level wind shear is
possible overnight tonight across the area as the 850 mb LLJ
strengthens, but do not have enough confidence right now to
include in TAFs just yet.




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