Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 182054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

With primarily zonal flow dominating for much of the upcoming
week, little shortwaves rippling through the flow will keep the
region in an unsettled pattern, culminating at the end of the week
with a stout system looking to traverse through. Mentionable precip
chances will persist off and on starting tomorrow morning through
next weekend. As for thunder chances, instability moving in
overnight tonight through Monday night could allow for
thunderstorms to develop, should precip be able to form. The
limiting factor for storm development late tonight will be the
lack of moisture above the lower to mid-levels, which would
translate to perhaps some drizzle instead, but as moist, WAA
ramps up tomorrow, could see slightly better chances late tomorrow
night. Should some of those storms become strong tomorrow night,
can`t rule out the possibility of some marginally severe hail.
Once the cold front responsible for the triggering of some of this
activity moves through, thunder chances in general drop off with
just some showers possible overnight Monday into Tuesday. Thunder
chances look to reintroduce themselves later in the week.

Temperatures tomorrow look to rise well above normal, reaching the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the western two-thirds of the forecast
area. The warmer temps look to persist into Monday but by Tuesday
and Wednesday, near normal temps return. Look for another warm-up
toward the end of the week with warm air anticipated to advect
back in ahead of the aforementioned stout system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

Surface high pressure is making its way into the area this
afternoon, allowing for winds to become relatively light and
variable. It won`t stick around long, shifting eastward tonight,
which opens up the door for winds to increase out of the SE
overnight and into tomorrow. As warm, moist air advects in early
tomorrow, model soundings are indicating MVFR ceilings to impact
the terminals by mid-morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg



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