Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 021146
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Issued at 403 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Today - Wednesday...
Gonna be stuck between systems for awhile. A deep upper low to our
southeast will spin into the southeastern states while an upper
ridge over the High Plains will be gradually worn down by an upper
trough. This will allow a huge area of high pressure to hold in
place from Hudson Bay through the central U.S. A large northeasterly
fetch of cool and dry air will maintain an early Fall chill as
temperatures remain slightly below seasonal averages through Sunday
before we see a bit of a warm-up early next week.
Broad cyclonic circulation around the southeastern upper low will
advect cloud cover over the TN Valley as well as debris clouds from
convection along the East Coast westward. But subsidence over the
central U.S. will retard the westward extent of this cloudiness to as
far as our far eastern counties on Sunday.
Model guidance has been under forecasting high temperatures by a few
degrees lately and given 950mb temperatures only drop by about 1C
today then increase by the same on Saturday believe guidance is a
bit too cool.
By next Monday the surface ridge will begin to relax allowing
warmer boundary layer air to moderate temperatures and eventually
send temperatures well into the middle and upper 70s possibly by
Tuesday but no later than Wednesday.
Wednesday Night - Thursday...
The first signs of rain appear during this forecast period. Medium
range models weaken the first upper trough lifting out of the Desert
Southwest over the weekend while a second and stronger system
replaces it early next week before it too lifts northeast. The GFS
and ECMWF are extremely similar in how they handle this second upper
trough. However, expectations for rain will be tempered this far out
as both models are trending slower.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Benign and dry weather with scattered high clouds. Northeast winds
will increase to 10-15kt with occasional gusts this afternoon but
quickly decrease towards sunset.