Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171740

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 420 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Currently, we are still sandwiched between a surface low in western
KS and surface high over the Carolinas and the associated upper
level features. As the surface low continues to move to the
northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten and WAA will increase,
making today warmer and windier than yesterday. Highs today could be
record breaking, reaching the upper 80s, low 90s. Refer to the
CLIMATE section at the bottom of this discussion for some
climatological stats regarding the high temperatures for today.
Furthermore, a sustaining south-southwest wind of 20-25 mph is
expected today with wind gusts up to 40 mph for much of the
area. This combined with the fairly low RH values, 30%-50% range,
does slightly increase fire weather concerns. However, the ground is
still fairly moist so it will be difficult for grasses to ignite.
Therefore, no fire or wind headlines have been issued at this time.

This pattern will finally break down as the surface low gets upper
level support to push a dry cold front through the forecast area
Tuesday morning. This will keep skies mostly clear and drop high
temperatures to the low to mid 70s. This front will stall near I-44
in the evening hours Tuesday creating rain chances early Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The best chance for showers and a few
storms will be along the cold front over the I-44 corridor. No
severe weather is expected at this time. The upper level trough from
the West Coast will approach the area early Thursday morning and will
give the cold front the push it needs to continue moving south-
southeast and out of MO/KS. As the week progresses, temperatures will
continue to decrease with highs in the upper 60s, low 70s on Wednesday
and low to mid 60s on Thursday.

Once the trough has passed, a ridge will move in over TX and
dominate our weather. This will give us mostly clear skies and temps
in the upper 60s, low 70s for the weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Breezy conditions will continue this afternoon into the early evening
hours before settling down slightly after sunset. Primarily SW winds
will shift to the NW tonight as a frontal boundary crosses the area.
What will need to be monitored overnight will be the LLWS threat as
the winds slacken after sunset but stay breezy aloft. Currently, it
appears as though LLWS conditions will remain just below criteria for
inclusion in this TAF but could very well need to be added in on the
next issuance. It`ll be dependent on a few factors that will be
continually monitored and reassessed for the next issuance.

Outside of the wind concerns for aviation interests, precipitation
should remain south of the terminals tonight and VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for this TAF period. Look for much lighter winds
behind the front tomorrow.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

For today...

Strong and gusty winds will persist across the region through the
day thanks to a tight pressure gradient ahead of a dry cold front
that will settle into the region Tuesday. As a result, sustained
winds today will range between 20 and 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
by noon today. Boundary layer mixing will help the strong winds
today as we mix to between 2500 and 3000 feet. Deepest mixing will
be across central Missouri where temperatures will be the warmest,
while the far northwest corner of Missouri will trend towards the
low end of the range owing to the subsidence inversion near the
front. The deep mixing and well above normal temperatures today will
result in afternoon humidity values that range from front 40% to 50%
in areas from east central Kansas through north central, northeast
and central Missouri. But, areas of far northwest Missouri and
extreme northeast Kansas will dry out a bit more --minimum humidity
this afternoon around 30%--  thanks to the dry air advecting north
along a cold front that will be in southeast Nebraska. The
combination of strong winds and low humidity values in will greatly
increase the fire weather threat in areas west and north of I-35
today as a result, though given the strong and gusty winds and
marginally curred fine fuels, fire weather issues will prevail
across the entire region this afternoon as weather conditions will
allow for rapid fire growth if not carefully monitored.


Issued at 400 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Climate for Monday:

Station.........................Kansas City
Monday Forecast LO/HI...........69/88
Daily Record High (year)........88 (1950)
Daily Record High Min (year)....67 (1965)
Daily Normal High...............67
Daily Normal Low................46

Station.........................St Joseph
Monday Forecast LO/HI...........67/88
Daily Record High (year)........89 (1991)
Daily Record High Min (year)....66 (1965)
Daily Normal High...............67
Daily Normal Low................42




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