Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240912
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Today - Tuesday:
The main theme/concern will continue to center on our prolonged
period of hot temperatures and moderately high humidity levels. Some
may call this a heat wave but these conditions are fairly common in
the summer, it`s just that we have had such an abnormally "cool"
summer up until now that this period of excessive heat feels like a
heat wave.

An elongated are of  high pressure aloft will extend sw-ne from NM
through the OH Valley while an upper level trough lifts northeast
through the Northern Plains. A weak front over northeast MO,
separating low 70 dewpoints to the north from mid 60 dewpoints to
the south will lift north today. A weak wind shift line could reach
into far northwest MO tonight and linger into Monday but overall the
current airmass will likely remain unchanged through Tuesday
resulting in little day-to-day change in temperatures. With that in
mind have opted to extend the heat advisory through Monday. There is
a good chance that the advisory will need to be extended into
Tuesday but will allow the day shift to assess the next model run.

A narrow tongue of elevated moisture, best seen in water vapor
imagery, extending from West TX through northwest MO will linger
over far northwest MO today with maybe a few morning showers
embedded. As the weak wind shift line moves into northwest MO on
Monday isolated convection will be possible.

Tuesday night - Thursday:
A second upper level trough will be making its way eastward from the
northern inter-mountain region and through the Northern and Central
Plains. This feature with its associated cold front will generate
scattered convection. However, timing is becoming an issue as the
latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble progs are trending slower and have
been for the last couple of model runs. The 00z NAM through 84hrs
aligns more closely with these two models as well as the GEM while
the GFS appears to be the outlier and too progressive. After
collaborating with neighboring offices have backed off on PoPs
Tuesday night and Wednesday and shifted the higher PoPs into
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Friday - Saturday:
Medium confidence on Friday forecast as taking the slower ECMWF at
face value would result in keeping chance PoPs going into Friday. By
Saturday the system will be east of the CWA with slightly below
average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Mostly clear skies
expected however a patchy mid-level deck may move over STJ and MCI
during the predawn hours. Southwest winds between 10-15 kts after
sunrise.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32





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