Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 032059

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Issued at 259 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A few shallow instability-driven snow bands have developed over the
snow pack in eastern Iowa this afternoon, and these could send some
very light snow showers into far northern Missouri over the next few
hours. Otherwise clouds will continue to scatter out from west to
east through the evening hours. Combo of clearing skies and light
winds within an approaching low-level ridge axis will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid to upper teens across most of the
region tonight.

Passage of tonight`s low-level ridge to the east on Thursday will
bring winds around from the southwest and allow temperatures to rise
into the 40s across most of the area. A similar pattern on Friday
will send temperatures a few degrees higher with southern parts of
the forecast area flirting with 50 degrees.

Over the weekend the upper-level pattern will undergo significant
amplification into deep ridging across western North America and a
very large trough downstream, a signal of another strongly negative
Arctic Oscillation developing. This will send the eastern half of the
country into a colder pattern while our area will remain on the
western edge of this airmass. As this pattern transition occurs, a
couple of systems will drop through the region within developing
northwest flow. The first will swing through Friday night, although
this system will lack much moisture or any real push of cold air
behind it. Therefore its passage should be mostly dry, with
temperatures on Saturday easily rebounding back into the 40s. A
second stronger system will drop through the area Sunday and Sunday
night, bringing with it the main surge of cold air that will remain
in place into the middle of the week. Like its predecessor, this
system too will be starved for much moisture so that any
precipitation should be limited to light rain or snow showers near or
just behind the cold front Sunday evening. Any snow accumulation
would be minimal, if anything.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Cloud deck over much of MO and eastern KS will scatter out from west
to east over the next few hours, with the back edge reaching the KC
area by 2 PM or so. Most locations have seen ceilings rise above
2000 feet and these will remain above this level through the
afternoon. Skies will clear region-wide by tonight.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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