Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 191118
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with the exception of
some steam fog at STJ through 13Z. Otrw...expect sct-bkn mid lvl
clouds thru tonight before giving way to just few-sct high clouds.
Lgt winds this morning will pick up to around 10kts out of the south
by mid morning. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight as a weak
cold front approaches the terminals.