Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 171641
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CDT FRI MAR 17 2017

A low cloud deck moved into the area overnight, keeping low
temperatures in the mid-50s. A weak surface low and associated cold
front is still on track to pass through the area today.
Drizzle/light rain is possible ahead of the front mostly south of I-
70. This is mainly a result of isentropic lift on the 300K surface.
The cold front should pass through late this morning, clearing skies
and allowing temperatures to reach the mid-60s to low-70s. In
addition, the northwesterly winds will gust up to 20 mph this
afternoon with relative humidity values in the upper 20s; therefore,
take caution if burning today.

A surface high settles into the area tonight, dropping low
temperatures into the 30s. Only areas north of HWY 36 will
experience temperatures at or slightly below freezing. Highs
Saturday will also be slightly cooler, ranging from the mid-50s in
north-central MO to low-60s everywhere else. On Sunday, the surface
high will slide off to the east, with a surface low approaching from
the west. This will shift winds to the south and lift a warm front
and WAA north across the area. There is then a chance of light
rain for a few hours early Sunday morning along the southeastern
border of the forecast area. In addition, the increased WAA will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s on the eastern
side of the forecast area and into the upper 70s, low 80s for the
western half. The aforementioned surface low and cold front will
enter the area overnight Sunday into Monday morning. This along
with the strengthening of the LLJ, will result in the potential
for thunderstorm activity mostly along the eastern border of the
forecast area. No severe weather is anticipated at this time.
Little cold air will filter in behind the cold front; therefore,
highs on Monday are expected to reach the mid-60s up north and
low 70s south of I-70.

Temperatures will cool Tuesday and Wednesday due to a surface
high settling into the area behind Monday`s cold frontal passage.
Normal temperatures are expected, which is the mid-50s for highs
and mid-30s for lows. An upper level shortwave will move through
Tuesday morning bringing a slight chance of rain for most of the
area. Everyone will get another shot at rain Wednesday, which will
be driven by WAA. A negatively tilted upper level low pressure
system will approach the area from the Rockies Thursday. Warmer
temperatures should return with this system with a chance for
organized convection.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT FRI MAR 17 2017

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with ocnl high clouds.
Winds will be out of the N today around 10kts dmshg to around 5kts
this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...73



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