Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171129

629 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Upper low is pushing to the east of St. Louis early this morning with
thick low clouds on the back side of this feature encompassing much
of northern Missouri. Believe these clouds will be stubborn to clear
out for much of the morning and early afternoon, particularly over
central into northeast Missouri given saturated grounds and higher
low-level humidity across these areas. As such temperatures were
nudged down a bit for these areas, with temperatures possibly
remaining in the 70s all day across the Kirksville-Moberly corridor.
This should prevent any significant destabilization over central
Missouri this afternoon, so precipitation chances were removed from
the forecast for all areas today.

A deeper upper wave will dig into the Upper Midwest tonight and
Monday sending a weak front into eastern Nebraska by Monday evening.
Highest precipitation chances Monday and Monday night will remain to
our north in closer proximity to the front and upper wave, however
several models are hinting at at a few weak mid-level impulses
tracking through the forecast area Monday morning and again Monday
night. Airmass should be fairly unstable by this time so one or more
rounds of convection are possible if these waves become organized
enough. Without any other significant forcing mechanism, any
thunderstorm chances will be closely tied to the timing and strength
of these impulses which is hard for models to resolve at this
time. Increasing capping may also keep storm chances limited as a
rather deep EML mixes in from the west Monday night. However, if
these factors do not significantly limit thunderstorm development,
there should be enough elevated instability and wind shear aloft for
few strong wind gusts Monday night particularly if the deep
inverted-V sounding in the NAM forecast verifies. Heavy rain does not
appear to be a significant threat at this time.

By Tuesday and Wednesday upper-level heights will begin to rise
across the Plains in the wake of Monday`s shortwave. This should
shift the storm track to the north of the forecast area through the
remainder of the work week, although a weak wave may bring a few
showers and storms to northern portions of the forecast area Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This ridging will also bring hotter temperatures
into the region with highs in the lower to middle 90s by the end of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Widespread low clouds across much of northern MO will remain in place
for much of the morning and early afternoon, slowly eroding and
lifting from west to east through the day. KC/STJ is right on the
western edge of this cloud cover, and expect MVFR and occasional IFR
ceilings at these locations for the next 2 hours before clouds
scatter out and lift into VFR by afternoon. Dense fog to the west of
this cloud cover is occurring where skies were clear overnight and
shouldn`t spread east into the KC area where skies have been cloudier.




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