Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191656

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 339 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows us a modest trough
moving through the mountainous west on its way towards the Plains
States. This trough will amplify as it shifts into the Plains today
as it phases with a low circulation across Canada allowing a couple
of events to unfold over the next 48 hours. One, expect
thunderstorms across southern Missouri as the low level jet gets
going across a cold front stalled out; and two, a quick cool down in
temperatures for a couple of days --though not quite cool enough to
warrant any frost concerns--.

For the rest of the work week...We expect thunderstorms to bubble up
across southern Missouri thanks to the interactions between the
trough and stalled front later today. Currently, expectations are
that a few storms could wander as far north as central Missouri
during the late afternoon into the evening hours. However, any
stormy activity during the evening and overnight periods will sink
south as the trough moves into the Plains and deepens. Thus, the
chances for rain in our area for today are rather small. The
amplifying trough will then help push the temperatures down for
Thursday, making it feel a bit more fall like with highs in the 60s
for at least one day. However, the self same trough that will bring
the cool air will also take it away as the trough quickly moves east
allowing a ridge to expand east into the Plains, lifting
temperatures back above normal for Friday and the weekend.
Otherwise, due to the follow on ridge moving in we are expecting the
above normal temperatures to run into the middle of next week.
Additionally, next chance for widespread rain does not look to
arrive until the middle to late portions of next week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only broken to
scattered high level clouds. Lower ceilings will occur from
southwestern MO through east central MO in association with a stalled
frontal boundary. Thunderstorm chances will also be tied to the
stalled front and will not impact our terminals. Winds will trend to
the north but remain light overnight as a weak front moves through
the area.




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