Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 091035
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
Here comes Spring! Saturday`s bout of cool weather will be a distant
memory by this afternoon as the cool surface high behind the front
that moved through early yesterday morning washes out across the
Plains in response to the flattened shortwave ridge that is
emanating from the from the western reaches of the Nation.
Temperatures under the flat ridge will warm significantly starting
today as 925mb readings jump from just below freezing to some +10
degrees above, which should translate into highs in the 50s and 60s
today and in the 60s and 70s for Monday. In general, through the
work week, conditions will be very Spring like; though activity in
the northern stream will remind us that winter is not quite done
with us yet.
For the coming work week we are watching a system which is currently
located around 140W in the eastern Pacific. This trough is timed to
swing through the Plains States Tuesday as a positively tilled
trough; in a similar fashion to the system that passed through
Friday night through Saturday; the implication being that
precipitation type and amount are highly suspect. Timing indicates
the best forcing will arrive in our section of the Plains States
Tuesday night, with any precipitation early in the night as all rain
owing to the warm nose aloft. As Tuesday night progresses it then
turns into a race between exiting precipitation and the cooling
temperatures when it come to precipitation type. Accumulations
should be on the low end given the short residency time of the
system. Temperatures Wednesday will be a bit cool, though highs will
still climb into the 40s.
Otherwise, rest of the work week will be quit nice as our section of
the country will be on the warm side of the prevailing westerlies.
This will allow our highs to rebound from the 40s on Wednesday back
into the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the week.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals for much of the next 24
hours, though a little light haze early this morning will impact the
KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, a gusty southwest wind will prevail
through the daylight and overnight hours.