Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
947 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2017

Areas on our western border have started to see some light rain
thanks to an upper level shortwave trough and developing surface
low approaching our area from the Rockies. We are also seeing some
restricted visibilities (1-2 statue miles) in the areas that are
seeing the light rain. Light rain and areas of drizzle will
persist through the overnight hours and will linger into tomorrow
morning for areas in central MO. The visibility should improve a
little once the light rain and drizzle pass by, but patchy to
areas of fog are possible tomorrow morning, so visibilities are
expected to drop a little (3-5 statue miles) again. A weak cold
front will push through tonight, but the cloud cover should keep
temperatures warmer than last night. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler tomorrow, as a surface high settles into the area,
but should only be a few degrees below normal. A warming trend
will begin Monday as our surface winds shift back to the south.
Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s are expected with lows in the 30s
and 40s.

A semi-active pattern sets up for next week, with multiple shortwave
troughs and surface lows moving through the Midwest bringing rain
and potentially storm chances. The first wave is expected to arrive
Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain showers are expected first, but
isolated storms are possible overnight with this system as more lift
moves into the area thanks to the cold frontal passage and
strengthening low level jet. MUCAPE values are forecast to be in
around 500 J/kg. Rain and storms should exit the area Wednesday
evening. A surface high will follow, moving over the area
quickly, before another upper level shortwave trough and surface
low approaches the area Thursday. Again, rain showers are expected
first with isolated storms possible in the overnight hours when
there is enhanced lift from the cold frontal passage and
strengthening low level jet. MUCAPE values look to be similar to
Tuesday night. One caveat though is the ECMWF moves this system in
slower than the GFS. If ECMWF verifies, then we may not see any
thunder. Also, the showers will stick around longer on Friday.
Will have to see if one converges more toward the other.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 947 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2017

Solid IFR ceilings and spotting IFR visibilities are present
throughout the area at the start of the period due to moisture
being trapped in the lower levels near a frontal boundary. The
lower visibility is mainly due to light to moderate drizzle which
is expected to end near 9-10Z helping to raise the visibility to
MVFR then VFR around sunrise. The IFR ceilings look to be more
persistent and are expected to stick around through sunrise until
there is some drier air on the backside of the frontal boundary as
it moves south. While the boundary is moving through the
possibility of LIFR ceilings is likely at most of the locations
with 300ft being the current forecast just before sunset. There
should be quick jump to VFR once this drier air and surface
heating occur in the early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham



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