Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131723

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1123 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Issued at 251 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Surface winds will shift to the south today and allow for
temperatures to warm to slightly above normal levels with highs
ranging from around 40 along the IA border to the low 50s in our
south. The KC area should be near 50. This warming trend will
continue into Wednesday and Thursday. While it looks to be mainly
dry for this period, there may be some fire weather concerns,
especially with the underlying dry conditions and cured grasses.
There will be some moisture advection back into the area, but the
NAM may be overdone, as is often the case. GFS forecast soundings
show a deep layer of drying air through the day Thursday, ahead of
a cold front. This may lead to an area of just ahead of the front
warming substantially with humidity values falling in response.
The main limiting factor may be the winds, which don`t look all
that strong during the afternoon.

Much colder air will move into the area Friday. This should be short-
lived though as the associated high pressure quickly passes to the
east and allows for southerly flow to commence for Saturday. So
while highs on Friday will be 20s and lower 40s, by Saturday,
highs should be able to climb back into the 40s and low 50s, and
by Sunday, in the upper 40s and middle 50s.

There are no distinguishable storm systems showing up through the
next week that would bring us any substantial moisture. The best
chances for precipitation may not be until the Monday night to
Tuesday time frame next week. But there is so much variability in
the models this far out it`s tough to put much stock into any of the
models at this point.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Stratus currently working its way northward along the KS/MO border
may impact KC area TAF sites before pushing off to the east this
afternoon, possibly resulting in 3-4 kft ceilings for a several
hour period. Have TEMPO`ed this possibility to account for the
uncertainty in how far west the deck persists as it continues
north. Winds will remain out of the south this afternoon, mainly
at speeds less than 12 kts. Patchy fog and perhaps some low
stratus may develop as early as 09z at all TAF sites (particularly
KIXD) and should begin to mix out by mid-morning. Should the fog/
stratus look more persistent than currently anticipated, will
lower cigs/vsbys with the next TAF issuance.




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