Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 101056
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Issued at 347 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
Short term (Today - Saturday night):
Main concern in the short term will be for heightened fire danger
across northwestern Missouri as winds pick up this afternoon out of
the north behind a cold front. This cold front currently extends
from north central Iowa into southeastern Nebraska. This front will
continue to drop southeastward into the local area this morning. An
accas deck is developing ahead of the front along the Missouri/Iowa
border however very dry air near the surface should limit shower
chances. The front will sink south through the forecast area through
the morning hours clearing the southern CWA by early afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will reside across the northern CWA where the
front will pass early in the day and winds will pick up from the
north. Further south diurnal heating will nearly reach its peak
before the front moves through. Consequently, highs will range from
the mid 60s to the low 70s. This afternoon RH values across
northwest Missouri will drop to around 25% however winds will remain
around 15kts with gusts to 25kts keeping conditions just below
critical fire levels. In any case, fire danger will still be
heightened across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.
High pressure will build in the area tonight behind the front this
should help keep conditions dry overnight into Friday. However,
models are hinting at a weak shortwave moving into the northern CWA
after midnight. There could be a few light showers associated with
that so included slight chance POPs across the northwestern CWA.
Also, the cold front that moves through today will stall south of
the area tonight. Moisture will begin to pool along that boundary
tomorrow morning and as a weak upper features move through it could
produce a thunderstorm across the extreme southern CWA. Otherwise,
Friday will remain dry with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Saturday, warm air advection will begin to pump Gulf moisture
northward. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s to around 60 by
Saturday afternoon. A upper level trough will drop into the northern
Rockies on Saturday force an associated cold front into the Plains.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop across northwestern Missouri
and northeastern Kansas ahead of the front late Saturday afternoon.
There is the potential for some storms to be severe as plenty of
instability (on the order of 1000-1500J/kg of CAPE), and moisture
will be in place however, shear looks to be weak. The main threats
would be for isolated storms capable of producing large hail or
damaging wind gusts. Saturday night, thunderstorms will continue to
overspread the entire area however instability does not look as
strong with the loss of daytime heating.
Long Term (Sunday - Wednesday):
Sunday morning the cold front will be bisecting the CWA with showers
and thunderstorms continuing through the day. Ahead of the cold
front across central Missouri temperatures will rise to around 70.
Behind the front, highs will only rise into the mid to upper 50s.
Sunday night the front will sink south of the area however the upper
level trough will swing through the region providing for another
round of showers. Showers will exit the region early Monday but
northwest flow aloft and moderate cold air advection at the surface
will keep temperatures well below average with highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s. High pressure will build into the region Monday
night and a good radiational cooling setup will allow temperatures
to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Considering we are entering
the growing season and this would be later than our average last
freeze (April 11 in the KC area), frost/freeze headlines may have to
be considered. After a cool start on Tuesday, height rises will
allow highs to rise into the 50s. Wednesday, an upper level trough
will dig into the Central Rockies. This will force lee cyclogenesis
across the southern High Plains. this will bring a return to
southerly flow to the area with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
Southwest winds at the terminals this morning will switch around to
the north between 13Z-14Z as a cold front moves through the
terminals. Otherwise conds will remain VFR through the TAF cycle with
periodic scattered to broken mid level clouds. Once winds veer to the
north this morning they will be around 15kts with gusts to 20-25kts
before diminishing to 10-15kts this evening. Tonight high pressure
will move into the area and winds will become light and variable at
STJ and MKC...MCI winds will shift to the east between 5-10kts.