Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 162352
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
652 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 142 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

In the wake of the cold front which pushed through the area early
this morning, dry conditions have been observed for most areas
through Sunday morning. However, areas of light precipitation
have recently formed west to east, mainly across central Kansas to
western Missouri. Building high pressure over southwestern Iowa
is generating an expansive area of convergence near 850 hPa, along
the northern extent of the residual moist airmass from yesterday.
This will continue to expand in coverage through the afternoon,
with resulting light to moderate rain showers sliding eastward
through the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or two is
possible within this activity, though severe weather is not
anticipated. The cold front which pushed through the local area
this morning has stalled over southern Missouri underneath
weakening flow aloft. Surface low pressure centered over the
Oklahoma Panhandle will lift this boundary back to the north as a
warm front this evening. Thus, additional rain showers and
thunderstorms are possible for areas mostly south of the Missouri
River this evening as the boundary lifts north. The worked over
environment should limit the overall severe potential locally. The
main uncertainty with the northward extent of evening storms
resides with the magnitude of southern push the surface ridge to
the north is able to assume against the frontal boundary to the
south. Still generally thinking that greater storm chances will
remain south of the Missouri River, though light activity is not
out of question across the northern CWA through Monday morning.

Will see mostly dry conditions Monday as weak mid-level ridging
returns to the Central Plains, briefly. The active pattern will then
quickly resume as an upper-level shortwave crosses over the Dakotas
and eventually into the Great Lakes Region Tuesday afternoon.
Consecutive model runs continue to place this feature further north,
though ample moisture will once again be drawn northward into the
CWA, bringing additional chances of thunderstorms to the area
beginning Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, all underneath a
strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night. By Wednesday night, a
much more pronounced upper wave will eject out of the Central
Rockies, which will maintain the active pattern into Thursday. As
of now, this appears to be the best chance for the next severe
potential as favorable upper-level dynamics return to the area.

The upper-level jet will take a southward push by the late week,
which will help to cool temperatures heading into the weekend. By
that time, an upper-level trough will develop overhead of the
local area, which will maintain precip chances through the end of
the forecast period. With all considered, rivers and streams will
need close monitoring as new seven day rainfall totals approach 4
to 5 inches across the western and southern CWA.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

Scattered to widespread rain showers will continue to move to the
southeast for much of the area into the overnight hours. There is
enough instability for a few embedded thunderstorms, but this
will be mainly south of I-70. VFR conditions will prevail for the
entire period for the northern half of the area, with MVFR
ceilings pushing north to about I-70 tomorrow morning. This is
due to a surface high moving south into our area, keeping the
lower levels drier, and a warm front lifting north with sufficient
low-level moisture. The question is how far north will the warm
front and lower ceilings get with the opposing surface high.
Generally, most models think somewhere near I-70, so for now have
hinted at the possibility of MVFR ceilings at MCI and MKC during
the late morning/early afternoon tomorrow with higher-end MVFR
ceilings at IXD during this time. MVFR ceilings will move south
tomorrow afternoon, exiting the forecast area by the end of the
forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Grana



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