Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows a progressive pattern in place
across the Nation with small amplitude troughs noted moving east
through it. This trend looks to continue this coming work week as no
large scale blocking is noted or forecast to develop any time soon.
This will keep temperatures wandering across a seasonally normal
range over the coming week with a couple of chances for
precipitation based on the timing of specific troughs move across
the Plains States.

For today into Monday...a shortwave trough, responsible for the
drizzle foggy weather early this morning, is noted working its way
east across the Plains early this morning. As the trough moves
farther east today it will allow a bit drier air to move in, but
with the cloud cover and north winds lingering well into the day
expect temperatures to remain a bit cool. However, with Saturday`s
drizzle, and clearing clouds expected by tonight, think the
potential for fog --especially across northwest Missouri and
adjacent areas of Kansas-- will be rather good by early Monday
morning.

Focus then turns to Tuesday and the potential for thunderstorms.
Another progressive trough will zip across the Nation early this
work week which will bring frontal boundary sweeping across the
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Model timing on where returning Gulf
moisture intersects the sweeping front indicates storms will be
possible across the Lower Missouri River Valley, possibly starting
as early as Tuesday morning with isentropic accent ahead of the
trough inducing more drizzle during the day. However, by that night
the nocturnal jet associated should have little problem liberating a
bit of instability in the environment ahead of the front,
generating a bit of late night thunderstorm activity. That said,
models are having a bit of a time pinning down the timing, with
the GFS offering the slower solution which favors more rain and
storms in west central Missouri compared to the NAM, which favors
more activity across southern and eastern Missouri. And, while
none of the potential activity looks severe in nature, we will
want to watch for the flooding potential as precipitable water
values will be running around 1.2 inches, which is well above
normal for this time of year. GFS solution would be a bit more
favorable for sufficiently heavy rain that may induce a bit of
river flooding.

Second precipitable system to watch for will be quick on the heels of
Tuesday nights, as the progressive pattern persists, bringing a
returning chance for rain from Thursday afternoon through the day
Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2017

Lingering low clouds and mist are currently noted at the terminals
in western Missouri and eastern Kansas. However, skies will start
to clear by this afternoon as dry air sweeps into the region on
north winds. However, the clearing skies late in the day will
likely allow for patchy to widespread dense fog at the end of this
TAF cycle; early Monday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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