Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 142159
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 229 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2018

Pretty solid warm air advection across the area has brought
temperatures to around freezing/melting, mainly across the
southern half of the forecast area. Southwest winds around 10 to
15 mph and good sunshine has allowed for these temperatures to
come up. Areas north of the river will only get to about 25 to 30
degrees this afternoon, but this "warm up" will be very brief as
another very potent cold front is diving south toward the area. By
this evening, around 02z the front will nose into northwest
Missouri. Low level frontogenesis along the surface and low level
front will be responsible for another round of some light snow
later this evening. Mid level ascent associated with the trough
over the Great Lakes will arrive a bit later, so the bulk of the
lift associated with this widespread round of light snow tonight
will be in the lower levels as the cold air moves in. HRRR
soundings taken in the early hours of the event indicate that the
atmospheric profile might struggle to saturate into the Dendritic
Growth Layer, which might lead to some light freezing drizzle
before snow begins to fall once the column saturates. Given QPF
amounts around or less than .10" if any of it falls as light
drizzle it would likely cut into any forecast amounts. The quick
duration of the frontogenetic lift will also limit the amount of
snow production. Right now the forecast calls for about another
inch of snow, give or take a couple hundredths. The quick duration
of the frontogenetic lift will also limit the amount of snow
production.

Behind the cold front, and lasting much longer than the falling
snow, is very cold temperatures, which will overspread the area
through the day on Monday. Temperatures through the day on Monday
will be falling, resulting the high temperature occurring early in
the day. Winds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range, which will bring
wind chill values down to around zero through the day. By Monday
evening/Monday night time frame widespread wind chills will be
down to around 10 to 20 below, with some areas of far northern
Missouri dropping to around 25 below.

Surface ridging will dominate the area for the middle part of the
week, with below normal temperatures and dry conditions. By Friday
a surface trough will form to the west of the area, and mid level
ridging will form ahead of a deepening mid level trough for next
weekend. Good warm air advection ahead of the surface trough will
bring temperatures above freezing for Friday. Warm air advection
continues for Saturday, likely bringing day time highs well above
normal, with temps in the middle 50s. The evolution of the trough
next weekend still bears some watching as confidence is growing
that this trough will eject into the plains and affect the area
with some precipitation. The questions lie with track, timing, and
intensity of the wave as GFS and EC are both still very divergent
in their solutions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2018

Thin stratus layer should hang around for a few more hours, with
a brief period of VFR later tonight before the next round of light
snow. Based VIS forecast on Sunday morning`s event, which had
mostly 2- 5 mile visibility with brief periods of lower VIS. TEMPO
groups in upcoming forecasts can handle those lower VIS as we
approach the event. Thin low stratus layer depicted by model
guidance as well as NAM forecast soundings prompted a persistence
of MVFR CIGs through the remainder of the TAF period, but
ultimately could be SKC if that thin layer mixes out a bit.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Monday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Monday for MOZ007-008-015>017-021>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     MOZ013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     MOZ001>008-011-012.

&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton


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