Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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846
FXUS63 KEAX 240822
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

It doesn`t get much better than this for late June standards
as the weekend promises to be absolutely gorgeous thanks to low
humidity and below average temperatures. We can attribute this to
surface high pressure which will continue to settle into the
Central Plains through the weekend, ensuring continued northerly
winds and comfortable conditions. Today will likely be the warmest
of the two days as a weak front is expected to pass through the
region tonight, yielding in even drier air and slightly cooler
air for Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s is absolutely marvelous
for this time of year!

Next chance for rain set to arrive overnight Sunday as weak
isentropic ascent along the 300-305K surfaces interacts with a
weak shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft. Scan of
several BUFKIT fcst soundings yields little to no instability, so
have maintained the shwr mention inserted by previous shifts.
Shwrs and eventually some storms will be possible by Monday
afternoon as a lingering frontal boundary interacts with
additional shortwave energy set to arrive later in the day.
Despite stronger wind fields aloft, overall instability generation
remains in question and if current model solutions verify,
convection itself still may be hard to come by. Main front
expected to pass south of the region Monday night/early Tuesday,
effectively ending precipitation chances at least temporarily.

Fcst from this point forward is nothing short of a mess as
extended models continue to signal a very active weather pattern
developing as soon as Wednesday. By then, high pressure in place
on Tuesday will have moved off to the east, just in time for the
next storm system ejecting out of the Rockies. All signs point
towards increased moisture advection from the Gulf as southerly
flow is re-established, with several rounds of precip expected
through the latter half of the work week. From this vantage
point, just about every period has a decent chance of precip as
western Atlantic ridging nearly halts eastward progression of a
deep upper closed low situated across southern Canada. This will
allow several waves of energy rotating along its outer periphery
to impact our area, with multiple rounds of precip looking
increasingly likely for our area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

VFR conditions will dominate through the weekend. Only issues will
be watching the wind move around a little as it is light and
variable overnight, picking up a little form the north in the
morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter



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