Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232245
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 544 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

Complex and much more active weather is expected over the next few
days starting tonight.

For tonight, strong and broad moist isentropic ascent will
overspread the low level frontal boundary resulting in widespread
showers and thunderstorms forming over eastern Kansas and then
spreading east-northeastward into northeastern Kansas and
northwestern into northern Missouri. Shear may be strong enough to
support some storm organization overnight but instability will
likely still be limited and as a result, the threat of severe
weather looks fairly low. Instead, much of northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas should see much needed rainfall.

For tomorrow, much will depend on how the overnight and morning
showers/storms evolve and how the track of surface low is through
the course of the day. Models have a decent agreement on the track
of the low, moving it from west central Missouri, right near the
Kansas City area, into northeastern Missouri, around the Kirksville
area. The ECMWF though remains the furthest south tracking it along
the southern edge of our forecast area. Regardless, it seems likely
that the surface low will track through the southern to eastern
extremes of the forecast area. This will put areas generally south
of I-70 and east of the I-49 at the greatest risk of seeing anything
severe. However, models also have trended toward potentially keeping
this area in a low cloud/drizzly kind of set up through the day. The
NAM as well as some higher resolution models indicate light QPF
through peak heating in this area, indicative of low clouds and
perhaps some light rain/drizzle. If things can clear within that
portion of the forecast area, even for just a few hours, it may
allow for enough instability to form that severe storms would be
more likely given the very strong dynamics. Should discrete storms
form in this area, they`ll likely be of supercellular nature before
evolving into a line as they push east with time.

Wednesday afternoon continues to look there will be some potential
for storms. A positively tilted trough will slide down the northern
Plains and there appears to enough instability ahead of the next
cold front. Also, fairly strong isentropic ascent and moisture
transport will develop which will help to initiate some convection
earlier in the day. The main question is how quickly the front moves
through to clear out the higher instability. This doesn`t look to
occur until the afternoon so again, our far southern counties may a
round of potentially severe storms given the instability and shear
combination.

Cooler weather is then expected through the remainder of the week
and into the first part of the weekend as high pressure will prevail
across the central to northern Plains. By Sunday, warmer weather
returns as strong temperatures advection develops ahead of another
cold front. Temperatures may climb back into the 70s before cooling
down for early next week. The only real chance for precipitation
through the extended looks to be Thursday night into Friday as an
upper level shortwave slides through the northwesterly flow.
However, chances are low enough at this point have kept the forecast
dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and evening hours.
A complex of thunderstorms is expected to form over late tonight over
central to eastern Kansas and spread east-northeast into northwestern
Missouri. This should affect areas mainly from Kansas City northward.
Showers, storms and low ceilings are expected with this activity.
This heavier precipitation should lift north of the terminals after
sunrise and from there the forecast gets a little murky, and perhaps
not in a figurative sense. Forecast soundings for Tuesday morning
show a mix of low clouds, possibly IFR, and decreased visibility
which may be some drizzle based accompanying model QPF fields. This
notion seems to make sense given the track of the surface low should
be near to perhaps just south of the terminals and then into
northeastern Missouri.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB





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