Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140852

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Issued at 350 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

The positively-tilted short wave currently moving through the area
will continue to push to the east-southeast and will be completely be
out of the area by this evening. A slight chance of showers continues
through the early morning hours in the southern portion of the CWA.

An upper level ridge will move in behind the short wave and dominate
our weather for the next few days. In addition, the surface high
currently over the Ohio River Valley Will continue to move further
east but will stall out over the East Coast. This will cause surface
winds to shift to the south. Furthermore, the surface high will
interact with a surface low that develops over Colorado during the
day today. The setup of each feature will result in our area being
sandwiched between them. The tight pressure gradient and southerly
wind shift will cause winds and temps to increase throughout the
weekend as the interaction between the two surface features
strengthens. Today, wind gusts will be around 15 mph during the
afternoon hours. In addition, we will see warmer temperatures. Highs
will be in the upper 60s, low 70s. Saturday through Monday, wind
gusts will be between 20-30 mph with highs in the 80s. There is a
chance for showers and storms Saturday night into Sunday morning in
northeast MO as an upper level trough moves east to our north.
Although the upper level system stays well north of the area, I`m
keeping the chance PoPs due to the proximity of the associated cold
front during this time frame. This cold front will stall out along
the IA/MO border before it lifts back to the north as a warm front.

This pattern will break Tuesday during the day, as an upper level
trough and cold front move through the area. The frontal passage is
expected to be dry and bring cooler temperatures. Highs Tuesday will
be in upper 70s and low 80 with even cooler temps later in the week.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016

MVFR and IFR ceilings are moving northward this evening and are
expected move into east central KS and west central MO several hours
after forecast issuance. IFR ceilings may not affect the area until
closer to sunrise. But these low ceilings will persist through late
morning or early in the afternoon before lifting into the VFR range.
Winds will gradually veer from southeasterly to southerly through the




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