Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 082056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
256 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The area remains in a strongly cyclonic flow regime with trailing PV
slowly working east. This will likely keep isolated to scattered
flurries and snow showers going through at least this this evening.
But there will be a general downward trend in intensity and coverage
as the main storm system moves away and low level lapse rates/mixing
decreases. Winds will also begin to diminish later this afternoon and
this evening. With winds currently close to and in some cases
exceeding our criteria, will keep the advisory going as is. The
gusts should start to decrease though as sunset approaches and
mixing decreases.

Overall, the rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet. For Wednesday
afternoon and evening, in our far northeastern zones, there is some
indication that we may be clipped by a weak clipper system. There is
a decent area of transient frontogensis that clips the Kirksville
area and with temperatures well below freezing in that part of the
forecast they could see some light snow. Also, there may be a tight
temperature gradient Wednesday with the southwestern portions of the
forecast area warming into the 40s.

For this weekend, models are in good agreement plunging a strong
1040+ mb surface high into the Plains and Midwest. Have trended
quite a bit colder for Saturday`s highs and now looks like highs
won`t make it out the 20s for the KC area. There`s also an
indication of a weak shortwave trough moving through the area Sunday
into Monday. The GFS keeps this relatively dry while the ECMWF is
much more wet. Have maintained some low PoPs to account for the
passage of this system and the discrepancy in the models.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Conditions will generally be VFR this afternoon with the scattered
flurries/ snow showers. But a heavier snow shower may locally drop
conditions to IFR for a brief time, less than half an hour or so.
Winds will continue to be strong from the northwest through early
this evening. The gustiness may diminish overnight but should develop
again soon after sunrise Tuesday. However, by that time winds won`t
be nearly as strong as they`ve been so far today. There may also be
an area of MVFR ceilings build south into the area tonight. By mid
morning tomorrow though, conditions will begin to clear out.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>006-011>015-
     020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB


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