943
FXUS63 KEAX 062009
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms this afternoon with gusty winds and brief very
  heavy rainfall possible.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms this week with the most
  likely period Tuesday.

- Near normal temperatures for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A weak cold front is moving southward through the forecast area this
afternoon. As of 19Z, this front is located roughly from near
Moberly to between Harrisonville and Olathe. The front will serve as
the primary focus for storms, though additional storms will develop
or have already developed ahead of it where convective inhibition
has eroded in the heat and humidity of the day. Shear is very weak,
so the threat of any organized severe weather is nil. However, there
is ample moisture with precipitable water values of 1.7" to 1.9".
With some dry air aloft and steep lapse rates in the lowest 5000 ft
of the atmosphere, downdraft CAPE values are in excess 1000 J/kg,
which may support some gusty winds at the surface. Locally very
heavy rainfall is also possible given the ample moisture in the
atmosphere. The cold front is forecast to move south of the forecast
area early this evening and that, combined with loss of daytime
heating, should lead to storms ending and/or moving south of our
forecast area.

One other item to note in the near-term, is the MCS currently in
central Nebraska. This system has reinvigorated in the warmth of the
afternoon. Mean wind has this system propagating southeastward into
northwestern MO this evening/overnight. Models also suggest that a
weak internal PV anomaly has been produced by the system, which may
help it propagate further east than forecast. Still, it seems
unlikely to survive given the weak low-level moisture transport into
it, weaker instability, and increasing inhibition as it does move
toward the forecast area. For now, will work under the premise that
this MCS will weaken before it moves into northwestern MO.

The next decent chance for showers and storms will come Tuesday.
Upper-level ridging will strengthen over the western US. This will
force a more northwesterly flow regime over the middle of country.
Models show a shortwave trough moving through the area Tuesday.
Strong mid-level moisture transport into the area and MUCAPE values
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range will support the potential for robust
convection. With better deep-layer shear, though still somewhat
weak, the potential for more organized convection is better,
though still not great. And with continued high precipitable
water values of 1.7" to 1.9", the potential for heavy rain will
exist with this activity. Overall, it looks like multicells with
gusty winds and heavy rain. The timing of the shortwave being
before peak heating may limit the intensity and/or coverage of
storms, especially across northern MO.

Ensembles continue to show low end PoPs (15-30%) on nearly a daily
basis with northwesterly flow and the possibility of embedded
disturbances moving through the flow. These have limited or no
predictability given they`re largely a result of upstream
convection. The next more notable chance for storms comes Friday
with another shortwave trough moving through the middle of the
country. This will push a weak front through the forecast area.
Ensemble guidance shows mean MUCAPE values near 2500 J/kg. Mean deep-
layer shear continues to look weak with values near 20kts across the
forecast area. Given the parameters and the potential for a front to
move through an unstable airmass, PoPs in the 25-45% range look
reasonable at this time for Friday.

Regarding temperatures, normal highs for this time of year are in
the upper 80s. Forecast highs are within a few degrees of our normal
high for the next week, so we`ll continue to see seasonal
temperatures through the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Low VFR diurnal CU this afternoon with cloud bases of 3000-3500
ft AGL. These clouds dissipate soon after sunset with just some
high clouds leftover. As of 17Z, convection is developing from
east central KS into central MO. This activity will very likely
stay south of our terminals. KIXD will be the closest to this
activity but it still looks like convection will stay south of
this terminal. Winds will be light from the north this afternoon
and then become northeasterly to easterly overnight into
tomorrow, remaining light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB