000
FXUS63 KEAX 091127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Very quiet and tranquil weather early on in the fcst period as high
pressure centered over the central Plains continues to dominate the
local weather pattern. Several inbound shortwaves analyzed on water
vapor early this morning will pass with little consequence later
today as dry weather and continued downward vertical motion from main
850-mb ridge axis results in decent capping across the area. The end
result will be another beauty with daytime highs warming into the
lower to middle 80s with weak and variable winds as sfc high
pressure moves directly overhead.

As always...good things must come to an end and that trend will begin
tonight as a stalled frontal boundary now extending from the Red
River Valley east through the southern Ozarks begins to retreat
north as a warm front. This will occur as leeside low pressure
deepens over the Colorado high Plains which will spark return flow
and a strengthening low-level jet overnight which fcst models suggest
will increase to near 45 kts by 12z Thu. This...as expected will
lead to a band of developing convection as the low-level wind max
ascends the northward lifting frontal boundary with time. Right now
the best potential for developing convection remains from central
Kansas north into central Nebraska based on the expected north-south
orientation of the low-level jet axis. That said...fcst models do
suggest the eastern extent of shwr/storm activity could encroach our
western zones after 6z and thus have decided to maintain the a chc
mention from the I-49/I-29 corridor west. With increasing cloud cover and
developing warm air advection...overnight lows should be a few
degrees warmer than this morning/s lows with mid 60s expected for
most.

Early morning convection on Thursday should quickly all apart as the
low-level jet weakens with time. Despite this...fcst models still
advertising the possibility of shwrs and storms as warm front
continues to slowly lift north towards the area...and thus will
continue slgt chc to chc pops through the course of the day mainly
west of I-49/I-29.

From this vantage point...best chances for redeveloping shwrs/storms
will hold off until after 00z Thu as front continues lifting north
and low-level jet strengthens/veers towards northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas during the overnight. Models remain very consistent
in the development of an overnight MCS with highest pop potential
along and north of the I-70 corridor. Based on the model/s
persistence in this activity...will continue likely pops up north
with chc pops across southern portions of the fcst area.

Main warm front to lift north through the area on Fri with rain
chances gradually tapering off from from west to east. This will mark
the return of a warm and humid airmass which should stick around for
much of the weekend. Temps on Friday should warm into the lower
90s...with mid-90s likely by Saturday. Main concerns during this time
frame will be the actual frontal boundary with models suggesting the
feature will stall up along or just north of the Iowa state line.
Models have been consistent in maintaining the highest pop chances to
our north this coming weekend however with any stalled front this
time of year...we know these features can end up anywhere due to
convective influences north of the boundary. Would not be at all
surprised if boundary actually ends up further south as convective
reinforcement results in a further southward position than expected.
In any event...have kept chc pops going up towards the state line
through Saturday night to account for this uncertainty.

Sfc low to track east along the front during the day on Sunday with
rain chances gradually shifting further south through the day. As
this feature departs Sun night...high pressure to begin building in
from the northern Plains which should bring a noticeable change in
airmass as temps cool to below seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as high pressure
moves directly over the area. Weak and variable winds today will
shift to the southeast after 00z in advance of a warm front. Clouds
will be on the increase later tonight with sct-bkn mid clouds
expected after 3z. Outside chance for isolated storms after 6z
however overall confidence is way to low to include with current
update.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32