000
FXUS63 KEAX 141104
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

While there are ongoing thunderstorms this morning, much of the
earlier activity has dissipated. Although tropicalesque moisture
continues to dominate much of the forecast area early this
morning, weak LLJ hasn`t been enhancing lift for recurrent
development like what was observed across northern/central MO last
night. Chances, albeit low, will persist for the southern
portions of the forecast area through midday as moisture/mid-
level convergence zone continues to sag southward. By later today,
much drier air aloft will have worked its way into much of the
forecast area, with the entire forecast area precip-free by this
evening, which will persist through the weekend and into early
next week.

High pressure wants to remain in control through at least the
first part of next week, with the question of whether or not
NW/northern MO will see precip by mid-week due to sitting on the
ridge`s periphery. Long range models are having difficulty
resolving and agreeing on solutions by the second half of next
week, with some indications that a front over IA may attempt to
mosey southward through the region, providing a potential focus
for the next storm chances. Confidence on precip chances for next
week are low at this time.

Given the uncertainty in precip chances and therefore cloud cover
in the area, have opted not to get too bullish on raising temps
for next week. Highs will likely reach well into the 90s by mid-
week with dewpoints on the rise as well. It will be hot and humid;
the question is just how hot it gets given the aforementioned
uncertainty on where the local region sits with respect to the
periphery of the ridge.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

Ceilings and visbys have been bouncing around early this morning
as low-level moisture lingers within the terminal areas. This
trend of reduced visbys and ceilings will continue for the next
hour or two, with progressive clearing throughout the day as much
drier atmospheric air settles into the region. Look for light to
calm easterly winds overnight tonight under clear to mostly clear
skies, potentially setting the stage for fog concerns again
Saturday morning. Too soon at this point to say with much
confidence but conditions look favorable, so will need to be
monitored.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg