Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291746
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Large trough of low pressure continues to spin across the Great Basin
and Desert Southwest this morning...with well-established southwest
flow prevailing downstream across the Plains and into the Lower
Missouri Vly. Along the surface...latest analysis places a nearly
stationary frontal boundary across the Red Rvr Vly with eastward
extension into the ARKLATEX region. Lead impulse embedded in
southwest flow aloft is combining with the 850-hPa front to result in
light rain showers across western portions of the fcst area...with
MCI now reporting light rain per the 08z observation. In
reality...this area of light rain will be short-lived as lead impulse
shifts away from the area.

For the remainder of today...expect increasing cloud cover as upper
trough shifts east and sfc front to our south begins to lift north
with time. As such...precip chances will again increase from south to
the north during the late afternoon hrs with activity becoming more
widespread heading into the evening and overnight hrs as main trough
ejects east and takes on a negative tilt across the central High
Plains. In terms on thunder potential...quick look at several
forecast soundings reveals little in the way of instability
today...thus have capped mention of thunder in the isolated category.
The potential looks a little better overnight as elevated
instability of a couple hundred joules develops...however no severe
weather is anticipated. With increasing cloud cover...expect daytime
highs to top out in the mid to upper 60s with values only falling
into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

On Saturday...main upper low expected to slowly meander across the
central High Plains with main surface low becoming occluded with
time. As the sfc low occludes...main frontal boundary will lift north
to the I-70 corridor by afternoon. Decent heating by afternoon south
of the boundary combined with steep lapse rates will lead to moderate
instability by afternoon...with severe concerns once again returning
to portions of the area. Main caveat going forward which could limit
the degree of storm coverage will be lack of strong mid/upper-level
forcing as main 500-hPa low remains well west and southern stream jet
remains across the the Arkansas/western Tennessee region.
Additionally...much of our area will be in subsidence through a good
portion of the day as main shortwave responsible for tonight`s
activity lifts north into the upper Miss Vly with time. In any
event...cannot rule out some isolated storms capable of large hail if
frontal convergence can initiate activity...however better threat for
severe will reside south and east of the fcst area in closer
proximity to main upper jet.

Main wave to finally start moving east trough the area on Sunday as
500 hPa circulation gets picked up be a trough moving through the
upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. This should gradually allow rain
chances to come to an end by the end of the weekend with dry weather
and warming temps then expected through much of next week. No real
weather makers of interest seen in the latest model runs through the
extended as western U.S. ridging slowly builds east with time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR clouds currently prevail across the terminals in western
Missouri, and while the CIGs are expected to bounce around a little
in advance of a large convective complex moving in our direction the
ceilings should stay in the MVFR range. However, once the rain moves
in later-this-afternoon/early-this-evening CIGs and surface
visibilities will drop based on upstream readings. Have pushed the
overnight hours down into the IFR range as a result as the more
robust storm activity arrives this evening, but then quickly clear
conditions mid to late Saturday morning as dry air sweeps in under
the system lifting across us tonight. This will also bring gusty
winds that will veer to the southwest with the scattering of the
clouds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter



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