Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Issued at 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Short term (Today through Thursday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the continuation of
extremely unseasonable temperatures. Today will be the warmest day
of the week with 850mb temperatures a degree warmer than yesterday
and increased WAA temperatures should achieve the mid 80s to lower
90s. Factoring dewpoints in the low to mid 70s this afternoon and
heat index values will range from 95 to 103 degrees. This falls
short of heat advisory criteria but one was still considered due to
the late in the season heat as well as the first temperatures this
warm since late August. On Wednesday, temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 as the upper
ridge axis that resided over the area on Tuesday begins to flatten
over the region in response to a shortwave moving into the Plains.
This aforementioned shortwave will also push a cold front into the
central Plains on Wednesday and storms are expected to develop late
in the afternoon across central Nebraska. As we move into Wednesday
evening a  45-50KT southwesterly LLJ will develop across the central
Plains nosing into southeastern Nebraska. This will enhance
convection on Wednesday night even as the upper shortwave weakens.
Storms will be possible generally west of the I-35 corridor
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning before the LLJ weakens.
Thursday the area will remain capped and in the warm sector as the
aforementioned cold front stalls well north and west of the
area.highs will remain well above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Medium Range (Friday through Monday):

The medium range will begin much like the short term will be with
above normal temperatures continuing with highs in the mid to upper
80s. However, a return to near normal conditions will be on the way
as we progress into the weekend. This chance will come courtesy of a
strong upper level trough. This trough is expect to move into the
northwestern CONUS tomorrow and then Thursday through Friday will
dig as it move through the Rockies. On Saturday this upper trough
will move into the western Plains with an associated cold front
moving into the central Plains. Storms are expected to develop over
the western CWA on Saturday. Storm chances will continue through the
weekend as this system is expected to be a slow mover. However, the
cold front should be through the area by Monday night. Highs Monday
will finally return to move seasonable conditions with highs
generally in the low to mid 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

Southerly winds increased dewpoints 10-15F early today into the mid
70s over most of northern Missouri. With clear skies, light winds,
and plenty of cooling tonight an area of fog formation if possible.
An outflow boundary from a thunderstorm tonight has lowered the
dewpoints slightly, but lows are still expected to drop below the
dewpoint. The area of concern will be north of the Missouri River
effecting mainly MCI and STJ airfields. With the extra moisture
source and cooler low temperatures STJ is currently forecasted down
to LIFR visibility and ceilings just before sunrise. Fog is expected
to form near MCI, but only went with IFR visibility as the outflow
boundary will push through MCI in the next hour and may mitigate the
chances of dense fog forming. Most of the fog will burn off quickly
after sunrise, but a low IFR ceiling is possible to remain over
northern MO through 14-15Z.




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