Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 102052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CST WED JAN 10 2018

Main focus centers around potential for winter weather during the
next 24 hours. Warm air advection and peaks of sun have helped
warm temperatures well into the 50s. Warm sector temperatures in
the 30s and 40s will hold for much of the overnight hours tonight.
As an upper low ejects into the Southern Plains tonight, large
scale ascent will increase, with precipitation developing from
late this evening and overnight over a large portion of real
estate from central Kansas into northwest Missouri to central
Iowa. A strong cold front will move from northwest to southeast
during the morning hours, generally from far NW MO around 5am to
exiting the forecast area by noon. Immediately behind the front,
temperatures will rapidly fall upon strong cold air advection,
with readings dropping into the upper teens and 20s.

Based on strong model consensus and vertical forecast soundings,
three potential hazards exist tomorrow morning across the
geographical area, 1) a band of occasionally moderate snowfall over
far northwest MO, especially Atchison County, 2) existing moisture
on roadways refreezing as temperatures fall below freezing, and 3)
light freezing rain/drizzle with some wintry mix behind the cold
front. As such, have issued a winter weather advisory for portions
greatest at risk of one or more above scenarios. Morning commutes
could be impacted from St Joesph into the Rockport region, and
surrounding areas. Further to the south/east, the Kansas City
Metro Area would likely see the greatest impacts just after the
morning commute commences, between 9am into the lunch hour,
especially on untreated roads and walkways. There remains some
uncertainty to the forecast and lingering impacts for the
afternoon drive, especially the amount of rainfall/moisture
remaining on area roadways from morning rainfall that may refreeze
(black ice), the amount of post-frontal glazing from freezing
drizzle, and the depth of cold air that may transition the post-
frontal precipitation to light sleet pellets. Overall, travel may
be impacted during the morning hours, making travel difficult in
some areas.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST WED JAN 10 2018

Transition to VFR expected in the next 1-2 hours, with MVFR stratus
returning around midnight. IFR conditions expected by early morning
with chances for rain before a cold frontal passage brings much
colder air and the potential for light freezing rain.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     KSZ025-102.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     KSZ057-103>105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     MOZ001>004-011-012-020.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     MOZ005-006-013-014-021-022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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