Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 152340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
540 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CST MON JAN 15 2018

In the very near term, a few flurries are possible this afternoon
across northeast KS and northwest MO where scattered to broken
cumulus has developed at temperatures supportive of dendritic
growth. These clouds should dissipate diurnally around 00z, so
have only accounted for a few hours of isolated flurries in those
areas.

For tonight, some model differences in the timing of increasing
low-level moisture, but have trended toward the RAP/NAM solutions
and cleared out most of the cloud cover for tonight. This, coupled
with extremely cold 925 hPa temperatures and snow cover will allow
temperatures to drop below zero despite persistent 10-12 kt winds
overnight. This combination of very cold temperatures and winds
will bring wind chills into the -15 to -30 degree range, and have
upgraded the wind chill advisory to a warning in portions of
northwest MO where wind chills should drop to or below -25 for
several hours early Tuesday morning.

After Tuesday, a dramatic warm-up will begin as a longwave trough
moves into the western CONUS. Snow cover will begin to diminish in
sunshine Wednesday and should be nearly eliminated Thursday,
leaving no appreciable impact on the remainder of the warm-up for
Friday and Saturday. The warmest day of the period will be
Saturday when temperatures may rise into the 50s even in spite of
increasing cloud cover, when southerly flow is enhanced by an
approaching system.

The upper trough over the Rockies will push out into the Plains
Saturday and Sunday, pushing lee-side low pressure out of the
southern High Plains and into the region by Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation with this system is likely as timing and track have
been (relatively) consistent, but precipitation type remains a bit
in question. Currently, the track of the surface and 850 hPa low
are a bit too far north for a classic wintry system in the
forecast area, but ensemble height standard deviations are highest
on the southern side of the low and could support a southward
shift as the system approaches. Will continue to monitor, but it
appears initial precipitation in the warm sector will be rain, and
will have to watch for the development/location of deformation
zone snowfall when models settle on a more specific path.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST MON JAN 15 2018

Stratocumulus clouds in the area bringing near MVFR CIGs but the
scattered/broken nature of these clouds should make any MVFR
period brief in time. Low/medium confidence in low stratus on
Tuesday morning. Moisture layer and attendant saturation is rather
thin, so if it mixes in the lower levels it may be tougher for the
stratus to form.

KSTJ will continue to receive NIL forecast until power outage at
the site is repaired and observations start flowing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ013>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for MOZ001>005-011-012.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>005-
     011-012.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ006>008.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Leighton



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