Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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342
FXUS63 KEAX 261140
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread
across much of the forecast area this morning. Upstream convection
should ensure several more hours of precipitation. Will continue to
closely monitor flash flood potential, although robust convection
has been limited over the same areas. Dense rainfall network over
the KC Metro shows rainfall ranging from just a few hundredths to
1.60 inches over a 3-hour period. The highest amounts remain still
shy of flash flood guidance, but continued duration will increase
threat of localized flash flooding this morning. Otherwise local
streams and rivers are just now responding to recent rainfall, and
will closely monitor river flooding potential. This activity should
gradually lift to the north and weaken by mid to late morning, with
an overall lull for the forecast area by midday. Thereafter, another
round of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
along and north of the surface front that will gradually lift north
from its current position. This places areas along and north of the
Interstate 70 corridor within the highest potential for additional
thunderstorms later today. The active weather pattern looks to
continue through early next week with continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms, although dry periods will certainly be present.
Predictability remains challenging to identify highest chances for
thunderstorms as subtle disturbances and mesoscale features remain
unresolvable at this time scale.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Convection has largely shifted north of terminals, with a lull
expected through at least midday. Another round of thunderstorms is
possible by mid/late afternoon. Conditions will remain low-end VFR,
with an occasional, brief reduction in ceiling height with scattered
low level stratus present.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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