Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230352
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
952 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CST WED NOV 22 2017

The forecast for the next week continues to look rather quiet,
with temperatures bouncing up and down as a couple of dry cold
fronts expected to move across the Lower Missouri River Basin,
thus making holiday travel across the local region free of weather
concerns.

This afternoon...satellite imagery shows a bit of an amplified
pattern in place across the Nation with a ridge over the Rockies and
a general 500mb weakness prevailing across the eastern CONUS
resulting from shortwave troughs spilling over the ridge to our
west. The resulting northwest flow helped push through a dry cold
front Tuesday afternoon, resulting in our cool temperatures
today. However, the ridge to our west will help lift temperatures
over the next few days, with another dry cold front expected to
push through the region late Friday into Saturday. Big result from
this activity will be that temperatures will start warming over
the next couple of days; with highs Thursday in the 50s, and in
the 60s Friday. In fact, we might be able to tip-toe up to 70
degrees Friday as breezy southwest winds prevail across the
region. Afternoon high temperatures will fall back into the 50s
for the weekend behind the dry cold front late Friday.

Of concern for Friday...will be the heightened fire weather
concerns. The wind will prevail from the west to southwest Friday,
ahead of the dry cold front, with sustained speeds around 15 MPH
and gusts to around 30 MPH. The breezy wind, when combined with
low afternoon humidity values, likely to drop to between 30% and
40%, will increase the threat of outdoor fires spreading quickly
if they are not carefully controlled. Cooler temperatures and
lower wind speeds behind the dry cold front will prevent this
threat from continuing into the weekend.

Otherwise...for the beginning of the next work week temperatures
will be on a slight trend up as southerly winds return late in the
weekend into Monday, ahead of another trough that will drag a
cold front across the Plains next Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing
of the frontal passage is a little uncertain, but the general
trend seems to sweep the front through eastern Kansas and western
Missouri before enough moisture advects north to generate any form
of precipitation in our section of Missouri. Currently, latest
model runs indicate that the chances for rain with the front will
likely develop just east and south of our forecast area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 952 PM CST WED NOV 22 2017

VFR conditions and light southwest to west southwest winds are
expected to continue through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin



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