Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Primary concern for the overnight period through early Friday morning
will be fog, potentially dense. Combining the ingredients of lingering
low-level moisture, light winds, and clearing skies will yield fog to
impact all four TAF sites. MCI and IXD are anticipated to drop down
into at least the IFR category with STJ looking to reach LIFR,
especially during the pre-dawn to just after dawn hours. MKC looks to
not drop quite as low as the three others but will need to be
monitored for possible IFR conditions during the prone hours. Once
the fog/low stratus burns off in the morning, VFR conditions will
return with just some clouds littering the skies in the afternoon.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will continue to prevail throughout
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...lg






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