Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017

Elevated fire weather concerns continue over the lower Missouri
Valley this afternoon as strong southwest winds with gusts to 45
mph prevail over the area. So far we haven`t heard of any fire
starts, and latest GOES-16 satellite products (Fire Temp RGB and
3.9 shortwave IR channel) have verified this trend. In any event,
south winds have allowed for modest warm air advection with many
locations now reporting temperatures well into the lower 60s
across the lower Missouri Vly. Winds should begin to weaken by
early evening, however elevated fire danger will continue this
afternoon and outdoor burning is highly discouraged. Overnight
lows early Tuesday morning will only drop into the lower 40s as
warm air advection continues through much of the overnight hours.

Another cold front will pass across the region early Tuesday
morning with cold air advection expected for much of the day on
Tuesday. This will lead to noticeably cooler temps with high
struggling to reach the 50 degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Winds
will once again be gusty which may lead to another afternoon of
minor fire danger, however cooler temps should keep concerns in
check.

Beyond tomorrow, the forecast looks nothing but pleasant as we
head towards Thanksgiving as upper ridging across the western
U.S. begins to breakdown and slide east with time. This should
set the stage for an above normal temperatures on Thursday with
highs reaching the middle 50s for most. Even warmer air is
expected by Friday with upper 60s possible by Friday afternoon
following the passage of a warm front late Thursday night/early
Friday. These temps will be short lived however as a cold front
will then drop through the area Friday night which should yield
cooler and more seasonable air for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST MON NOV 20 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Breezy south
southwest winds should gradually diminish over the next 1-2 hours,
but will then remain sustained out of the southwest at 10-12 kts
until a cold front sweeps through the region Tuesday morning.
Scattered to broken cirrus will continue stream through the
region from northwest to southeast tonight, and while a lower
deck is expected in the wake of tomorrow morning`s cold front,
cloud bases will likely remain above 10 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin



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