Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 111001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 AM CST SAT NOV 11 2017

Satellite imagery this morning shows a broad flat pattern in place
across the Nation, with a series of low amplitude shortwave troughs
moving across the country. The trough of note for today is seen
moving through the Rocky Mountains of Idaho early this morning. This
flat pattern will allow the prevailing westerlies to wallow around
our latitude through the coming weekend and into next work week,
keeping our temperatures ranging around normal for this time of year
(Highs: 50s; Lows: 30s). However, this will also result in periodic
chances for precipitation over the next week; though, spoiler, it
does not look cold enough for snow yet.

For the weekend...temperatures a little below normal will wallow
around the region over the weekend as a shortwave trough zips
through the Plains States. This trough has been well advertised by
many models for several days now, so confidence is rather high that
isentropic upglide will get going ahead of the trough by this
afternoon, with model soundings showing good saturation up through
700 mb by the late afternoon hours. This will likely result in
drizzle, though light rain showers will also be possible, this
afternoon and evening. So, while it will be a wet, misty, evening
rain totals are not expected to be more than a tenth of an inch.
Clouds will be slow to clear Sunday behind the exiting drizzle,
which will help keep temperatures cool another day.

Beginning of the work week...will see temperatures climb a little as
the sun shines down a bit with some modest southerly winds. However,
this will be setting the stage for the next round of rain, which may
arrive as quickly as Tuesday as another shortwave (this time moving
across the Northern Plains) drags a weak cold front across Kansas and
Missouri. Returning moisture Tuesday will have a chance to interact
with the advancing front, and with models highlighting a bit of
MUCAPE ahead of the front as the nocturnal jet gets going, thoughts
are that chances for storms will be rather good Tuesday night. Have
included the mention of isolated thunderstorms owing to the
forecast instability, but otherwise, may have to watch for heavy
rain Tuesday night, depending on how progressive storms that night.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 949 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2017

Primary change to the forecast was to delay onset of reduced cigs
by 2-3 hours on Saturday based on new model data and upstream
observations. VFR conditions will persist through the first half
of the forecast before ceilings lower to MVFR around midday
Saturday. Chances for rain will move into terminal space by mid to
late afternoon. Wind direction will become variable ahead of a
wind shift expected to move through terminals at the end of the
forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Blair



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