Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 161000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

While the focus of this forecast remains on the ejecting circulation
moving northeast across the southern Plains early this morning, the
impacts will be rather minimal compared to the past weekend as
surface temperatures will finally be ranging above freezing.

A large rain shield is sweeping north this morning as the
circulation that brought the weekend icing ejects northeast across
the Plains. Warm air advection with and just ahead of the rain has
resulted in a non-diurnal temperature trend across eastern Kansas
and Missouri overnight. This has resulted in temperatures rising
above freezing in all but extreme north central to northeast
Missouri counties early this morning. Current timing of the
retreating surface freezing line has it moving north of Missouri
around sunrise, thus the threat of icing will finally end. Will
allow the remaining portion of the Ice Storm Warning to expire at 6
AM as a result. However, there might still be a slight chance for
some icing to persist into the post sunrise hours of today thanks to
surfaces that are still below freezing; though even those
surfaces will warm up by mid-morning.

Storms for today wont amount to much more than a good soaking rain.
With precipitable water values around an inch today, expect decent
rainfall totals of a quarter to a half inch with scattered locally
higher amounts. Additionally, might hear some thunder with the rain
today as there is a little bit of instability analyzed in the warm
sector of the ejecting circulation. Otherwise for today, expect
temperatures to range from the 30s in the far northwest corner of
Missouri into the upper 50s across central Missouri thanks to the
warm air advecting in.

Rest of the work week...temperatures will be on the up swing, expect
for Tuesday, as a little cool air returns across Kansas and Missouri
behind the exiting circulation. As for precipitation, looks like the
prevailing storm track will stay to our south through the work week.
The pattern may adjust enough to allow the storm track to move back
north late next weekend.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

LIFR to IFR conditions to continue. Periods of rain expected over
terminals through the next several hours, replaced with a steady
period of rain for several hours after 10Z. Back edge of rain
shield should clear terminals around noon Monday, with one final
bout of light rain associated with wrap around precipitation
entering terminal space around sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ025-
     102.

MO...Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Blair



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