000
FXUS63 KEAX 120447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT Sat May 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 419 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

General overview shows a trough moving across the Great Lakes region
with surface cold front well south and east of the area. Winds have
been fairly gusty behind the front with gusts reaching 35mph in some
locations. Temperatures have still managed to climb into the low to
mid 60s by this afternoon across the CWA. A dry airmass has moved in
behind the cold front with relative humidities falling to the 30
percent range. Given the recent increase in green-up across the CWA,
did not think that fire weather would be an issue.

Tonight...a rather large area of surface high pressure will move
into the Central and Southern Plains. With the surface high axis
extending from Arkansas to Iowa and on up into Canada combined with
clear skies for much of the night, and light winds...overnight
temperatures will plummet into the 30s across the CWA. Patchy frost
will be possible across much of the area with areas of frost
expected to develop generally along and north of a Potter, KS to
Kirksville, MO line.

Sunday high temperatures will remain below normal as the surface
high continues to sag southeastward. An approaching shortwave trough
and deepening surface trough across western Kansas may support
scattered thunderstorm development across southeast KS and southwest
MO by Sunday afternoon. A quick warm-up will follow through Tuesday
ahead of an approaching cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 419 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

Broad upper ridge to the west will shift eastward early next week,
weakening as it does so. This will bring much warmer temperatures
into the region by Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday likely seeing
the warmest temperatures of the season so far. 850 hPa temps rising
well above 20 C with deep subsidence within the flattening upper
ridge should easily allow temperatures so rise into the middle 80s.
Could even see temps in the upper 80s to near 90 across the west and
northwest portions of the forecast area where 850 hPa temps will be
maximized ahead of a weakening front.

This front will stall across northern MO or somewhere nearby early
Wednesday as the driving Upper Midwest wave weakens and pushes into
the Great Lakes. This front will set the stage for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night when a weak upper wave
will track across the Plains.

Medium range models generally agree on broad ridging returning to
the Plains through the end of next week, though they differ with the
depth of the ridge and any kind of forcing or capping inversions.
Temperatures and dewpoints more typical of late spring/early summer
could make the atmosphere unstable enough for isolated to scattered
convection through this time, though without any definite forcing
mechanism, decided to limit PoPs to slight chance until a developing
upper wave approaches on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light northwest winds
will become variable in direction AOB 5kts by mid-morning. A few
clouds around 7kft may develop during the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair