Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
559 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

Quiet weather pattern is in store for the forecast area through the
weekend and through the entirety of next week as the mid/upper level
ridge becomes and remains the dominant feature. In the short term,
surface level ridging centered over eastern Iowa and western
Illinois has made for calm winds and generally clear skies over the
region. This will introduce the possibility for some patches of fog
through the early morning hours on Saturday. Not anticipating
widespread dense fog, but some areas could see some brief patches
through the mid morning. The ridge doesn`t look to go very far
eastward through the day, but being on the southerly/westerly
periphery of it we should see southerly winds pick up through the
day around 5 to 10 mph. Despite good mixing in the low levels there
will not be any gustiness to these winds given the lack of any
appreciable wind in the vertical profile through the H7 layer. The
warm and muggy conditions combined with the lack of wind should make
for a bit of a stifling kind of day across the region for Saturday.

The mid/upper ridge over the High Plains will gradually build
eastward through the weekend and into early next week. Southerly
warm advection will kick in a little stronger for the early part of
next week, which in concert with the mid/upper ridge becoming more
centered over the region will bring rising temperatures through the
entire work week. Tuesday through Friday will likely bring
temperatures well into the 90s and with dew points rising into the
70s heat indices through the week will likely rise well into the 100
degree range. Expect at least 4 days next week of heat index values
climbing above the century mark.

As for precipitation through the next 7 days, the large scale
ridging aloft will generally keep any appreciable chance for rain at
bay for the forseeable future. Also mitigating any good chances for
rain is a semi-permanent surface low feature over the High Plains,
which will keep steady southerly surface flow into the area, thus
keeping the area in a deep warm sector, free from any notable
boundaries that may trigger convection. There will be some marginal
mid level flow around the periphery of the mid/upper ridge. This 30-
40 kt flow near the region could allow for some embedded waves to
bring scattered periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly toward
the end of next week when the flow becomes more pronounced near the
area. Otherwise, as stated above dry weather will continue through
the entire 7-day forecast.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

Light and variable winds this morning will cause some brief
periods of patchy fog through the next hour or two. By mid morning
conditions will clear up and winds will come out of the south
around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton



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