Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161742

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

As previously advertised, our weather will be dominated by the interaction
between an upper level ridge to our south and upper level trough on
the West Coast. So we can continue to expect strong southerly winds
and warm temps today and tomorrow due to the tightening pressure
gradient and strengthening WAA.

The main concern for today is this morning`s dense fog advisory for
far northwestern MO until 10 am. The cold front stalled in eastern
NE and across central IA, helping calm the winds and clear the
clouds overnight creating ideal conditions for fog. Expect
visibilities to drop to a quarter of a mile or less. Rain chances for
northeastern MO will continue to diminish through 7 am as the
stalled cold front retreats back north. Clouds will clear this
afternoon for a majority of the area allowing temps to reach the
mid- 80s. Clouds may stick around a little longer along the MO/IA
border; therefore, temps there should only reach the upper 70s, low
80s. Also, wind gusts may reach 20-25 mph this afternoon, especially
in western MO and eastern KS. Monday will be even warmer and windier
than today with highs in the upper 80s, low 90s and wind gusts up to
30 mph for the entire area.

As far as the rest of the work week goes, models are now in better
agreement with what to expect. On Tuesday, the previously mentioned
cold front will make its way through the forecast area. It will be a
dry frontal passage bringing in cooler temps with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Tuesday night, the front will stall in southern MO. As it
does so, the upper level trough on the West Coast will begin to move
into the central US. This will provide upper level support for
chances of showers and a few storms starting in the early hours
Wednesday through Thursday evening. The best chances for rain will be
south and east of Interstate 35. At this time, no severe weather is
expected. Temps will continue to decrease with highs in the upper
60s, low 70s Wednesday and upper 50s, low 60s Thursday. The cold
front and upper level trough will completely push south-southeast of
the forecast area by Thursday, leaving us with mostly clear skies and
temps in the mid-60s for the weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Main challenge with this forecast is potential for some overnight
stratus. Confidence is higher in low stratus formation further north
across northern Missouri, but guidance falls off rather rapidly with
southern extent. There is also some suggestion among guidance for
some reduced visibility overnight at KSTJ. Have introduced the
mention of reduced visibility, but there could be a brief period of
dense fog early in the morning at KSTJ. Otherwise, only category
changes appear to be associated with strengthening winds Monday
morning through the afternoon and into the evening.




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