Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

An absolute banner day across the lwr Missouri Rvr Vly this
afternoon as abundant sunshine has allowed temps to warm into the
lower 80s. Latest water vapor imagery showing a notable cyclonic
circulation across the area as a well-advertised upper low continues
to descend on the fcst region. Several individual pieces of
shortwave energy rotating along the outer periphery of this feature
actually led to isolated shwr activity and a few lightning strikes
early this morning...and that/s where the main fcst problem lies
going forward as models are now beginning to pick up on instability
type shwr development through at least the overnight period tonight.

Precip chances aside...this early fall weekend is shaping up to be an
absolute winner as 925 and 850-mb temps fluctuate very little through
Monday. That said...Saturday may be a degree or two cooler than today
as the main cold pool aloft resides directly over the area.
Regardless...we/re still looking at upper 70s and maybe a few low
80s for afternoon highs. In terms of precip chances...have offered
slgt to low chc pops for areas north of I-70 early Saturday morning
as fcst models now indicating a possible repeat performance of this
morning/s activity as additional shortwave energy slides over the
area. Any activity that does develop should quickly dissipate
shortly after sunrise.

Mostly dry conditions expected both Saturday night and Sunday...with
temps possibly rising a degree or two by Sunday afternoon as height
rises approach from the west. From this vantage point...upper 70s to
lower 80s look plausible with another sunny day in store for the
region. By Monday...even warmer temps possible as weak upper ridging
moves overhead in advance of next Pacific storm system that will be
impacting the Great Basin and Rockies. Big pattern shift starting on
Tuesday with more details provided below.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

After a relatively benign period of weather, a change is in the air
as a relatively deep trough begins to move across the Great Basin.
With upper level ridge building over the region Tuesday,
temperatures will remain above normal with a gradual cool down to
near normal by Thursday as the trough moves across the plains.
Mid-range models are in good agreements with the placement of the
trough as it moves out onto the plains with diffluent flow
developing over the mid-Missouri River Valley. Return surface flow
will establish itself by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough,
increasing instability across the region. This will lead to a more
active weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing
Tuesday night and continuing each day through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Scattered mid-level
clouds are possible overnight but think any thicker ceilings will
stay to the north, closer to the center of the upper low. Scattered
diurnal clouds around 5K ft are possible tomorrow afternoon but skies
should clear out around sunset. Winds will remain light but will
veer to the south this afternoon and then back again to the southeast
after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...CDB





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