Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211719

1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains


Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.


Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.


KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-



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