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000
FXUS63 KEAX 300521
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

A moderately fast zonal flow aloft with no significant systems to
affect the CWA will maintain slightly above average temperatures
which began today.

Light southerly flow will be pushed out of the CWA as a very weak
cold front slips southward and through the CWA Saturday evening.
System will be moisture starved so it will pass through dry. Could
see some stratocu form south of the MO River on Saturday as models
advect moisture northward from South Texas While 850mb temperatures
increase the 925mb temperatures cool or remain unchanged as this
moisture/clouds advect into the CWA.

Weak high pressure and light northerly winds on Sunday will clip a
few degrees off temperatures vs Saturday. Latest NAM Bufr soundings
and SREF surface visibility forecasts signaling the possibility of
fog early Sunday morning. Will not mention at this time and wait for
continuity in the models as I`ve seen similar signals this far in
advance before only for the fog not to materialize.  A weak/fast
moving clipper type system is progged to dive southeast Sunday
night. Once again moisture will be hard to come by and mostly be
found at or above 700mb. Will increase clouds for Sunday night and
may even see a few sprinkles but not mention any accumulating
precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

After a stretch of mild weather to start the week, major changes
will occur Wednesday into Thursday with another shot of frigid air
heading our way. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Monday - Wednesday due to persistent southerly flow/warm advection
ahead of a deepening trough over the western states. By Tuesday
night and into the day Wednesday, a strong low level jet will
develop over the area ahead of the strong cold front, and this may
result in a few rain showers across northwestern Missouri and
adjacent areas of Kansas.

The bigger story though, will be the front that will plow through
the region Wednesday afternoon/evening and the stark temperature
contrast behind the front. The ECMWF, GEM and GFS are all in good
agreement with pattern shift and the magnitude of the cold air
expected to move in. This notion is supported by the ensemble
products of the ECMWF and the GFS. There are minor timing
differences but confidence is high that temperatures will be
significantly colder Thursday compared to Wednesday. Highs for
Thursday may be set at midnight with strong cold advection keeping
temperatures steady or falling through the afternoon.

There will also be a chance for some wintry precipitation behind the
front but the details of this are much less certain so have just
continued mention of a rain/snow mix in the transition area with
snow in the deeper, colder air. Of potentially greater concern is
another round of precipitation Thursday night/Friday. Forecast
soundings suggest that for our area, all snow would occur but there
may be some lack of cloud ice which could lead to a mix. For now,
given the deep cold air, have just mentioned snow. There is still
plenty of time to fine tune that period of the forecast in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

There is a slight chance for clouds to develop around 1000 feet Saturday
morning and afternoon, but odds appear too low to include this in the
TAF. Better chances for stratocumulus will be across central and
eastern MO later in the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel