Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Large area of precipitation over central Kansas extending southward
into Oklahoma has made steady progress east today. Northeast low-level
flow advecting cool and relatively dry air into the area most of the
day will likely keep the threat for precipitation to the west of the
forecast area until late this evening over far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri and well after midnight over central and north
central Missouri. Best instability remains to the south of forecast
area with surface low, while upper low and associated dynamics lifts
into the northern plains. As a result thunder threat appears minimal
and should be confined to areas south of the area.

As showers end from west to east tomorrow and cool Canadian high pressure
settles into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Although drier and a bit warmer
conditions are expected for Thursday and the first part of Friday
temperatures will still remain below normal.

By late Friday, another upper low will settle into the southwest
United States allowing for a return to more general southwest flow
across the region. In response temperatures should warm this weekend,
but precipitation chances will also be on the increase late in the
day on Friday. As pieces of energy eject from the upper low over the
weekend periodic chances of thunderstorms are expected. Antecedent
ground conditions due to heavy rains last weekend combined with the
forecast return of low- level moisture this weekend could lead to
more local flooding across the area. At this time the best chance for
storms appears to be on Sunday night as main upper trough ejects out
into the central Plains, however will need to monitor future model
runs and see how timing/placement evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Conditions will remain VFR through this evening with winds out of the
NE btn 7-12kts. Tonight cigs will become ovc around 4kft out ahead of
a storm system which is moving eastward across Kansas this afternoon.
Those rain showers will move into the terminals around midnight. Cigs
will lower through the overnight to MVFR around 08Z and further to IFR
around 11Z. Vsbys will remain VFR thru 11Z when they will drop to
4-5SM in rain and light fog.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...73





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