Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160439
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

Main concern with this forecast issuance will be the return of
hot and muggy conditions next week as the upper ridge makes
another eastward push into the Plains. A back door "cold" front
and boundary layer mixing have helped nudge dewpoints into the 60s
today, but a stream of moisture will feed northward along the
MO/KS border as surface high pressure departs and low-level flow
returns to the south southwest on Sunday, allowing humidity to
progressively increase over the next several days. The strongest
juxtaposition of the thermal ridge axis centered over the CWA and
the upper ridge over the eastern Plains should occur Thursday,
bringing highs near or perhaps exceeding 100 degrees. Several
waves are progged to ride the ridge across southern SD and central
to northern IA, which could throw some morning anvil shadow and
prevent effective heating on any one of these days, but the signal
is too consistent and too strong to ignore, and have issued an
excessive heat watch for Tuesday through Friday. Out of those
days, Tuesday will be the most marginal for advisory or warning
criteria, but the longevity of the event will also be a factor in
the potential for heat-related illness, and should be captured by
this product. Saturday may not be much different, but is a bit far
out to include at this time, since the ridge will eventually begin
to break down toward or just beyond the end of the forecast
period.

Precipitation chances will be low throughout the week, potentially
beginning to increase by Saturday night or Sunday of next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only high
level clouds moving through. Things have trended drier in the mid
levels so have removed diurnal CU. Winds will remain light through
the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...CDB



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