Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
231 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 231 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

A jet max and upper level short wave has exited the rockies helping
to develop a surface low over western Nebraska. The resulting
pressure gradient over Kansas and Missouri and has formed a strong
LLJ (60-70mph) over eastern Kansas moving into Missouri creating an
area of isentropic accent over the KS/MO border area and scattered
showers with some embedded isolated thunderstorms. The mixing layer
is not very deep (2,000ft), but with 35-40mph of wind just above the
surface, higher southerly winds 20-25mph and gusts of 30-35mph are
likely until the cold front pushes through late Monday morning.
Ahead of the cold front over central Kansas, a line of showers has
developed and will continue to advect to the east into the MO/KS
keeping likely PoPs in the grids through 03-04Z. The western portion
of the CWA will start to clear out while PoPs will remain over the
eastern CWA with the boundary stalling in that area. A weak minor
short wave moves along the boundary in the afternoon Monday creating
a chance of convection over this region and subsequent increased
PoPs, but will move east by Monday evening.

The low pressure system causing weather Sunday into Monday moves to
the north and stalls over western Minnesota leaving the region on
the poleward side of a large amplitude long wave through Thursday
before it finally moves over the Great Lakes. With no real lift or
moisture over the region the area will remain dry for the foreseeable
future. This low will finally advect colder air into the region
Wednesday dropping temperature below seasonal norms with highs in
the low to mid 40s and lows well below freezing through Saturday.

Sunday the model have significantly different solutions with the GFS
indicating almost all precipitation will remain well to the south,
but the ECMWF has some of that moisture to the south pull up into
the region with a short wave pushing through the midwest.  With the
uncertainty PoPs have been left out of the forecast, but it will
need to be watched as colder air will be in place and if the ECMWF
solution pans out mixed precipitation or snow would be possible.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

MVFR ceilings will remain throughout the region as an area of low
level moisture fills in from the south as a low pressure system
approaches. There will be a chance for IFR cigs along the MO/KS
border as showers push through, but for now only STJ has them in the
TAF. Upstream most the observations are in the 12-1500kt range. These
ceilings will remain MVFR throughout the night until drier air in the
low levels pushes through around 6-8z Monday when they should go VFR
quickly once this occurs. Winds will be out of the south 15-20kts
gusting to 25-30kt at times as the low approaches and will stay near
that level until they shift southwest in the afternoon on Monday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham/Hawblitzel



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