Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202337
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Small-scale upper trough/low pressure center responsible for
early morning shwr activity continuing to slowly translate east this
afternoon. Ongoing shwr activity near the Kirksville area will
gradually come to an end in a few hrs as increased subsidence and
drier air steadily overspreads the area. Low stratus that has kept
afternoon highs largely in the lower 60s will begin to breakup this
evening...with just some mid-level clouds possible after midnight. As
surface high pressure builds south overnight...expect influx of drier
air to restrict fog development for much of the area...however cannot
rule out some patchy development mainly south of the Route 50
corridor early Saturday morning. Lows this evening will fall upper
40s to low 50s.

Fairly nice weekend on taps for much of the area as surface high
pressure and weak ridging aloft temporarily control the local
weather pattern. Fcst models still insist on isolated shwr/storm
development across central Kansas Saturday afternoon as a weak
shortwave along the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge
sinks south during the day. The prevailing thought right now is that
enough dry air will be in place which should restrict widespread
development across much of Missouri and eastern Kansas...but will
maintain a slgt chc mention across mainly the Kansas counties during
the PM hrs. Beyond this...dry air most certainly to win out for the
remainder of the weekend with rebounding temps expected by Sunday
afternoon as highs easily climb back into the middle to upper 70s.

Large-scale upper pattern shift expected as early as Monday as
weekend ridge slides east as West Coast troughing begins to take
shape. This will put much of the Lwr Missouri Vly in broad southwest
flow aloft with several embedded disturbances expected to keep
sensible wx impacts ongoing through much of the next week. Meanwhile
to our south...fcst models show little if anything to block return
flow moisture as several models advertise dewpoints approaching the
70 degree mark as early as Monday. As a result...expect reoccurring
thunderstorms through the week with prospects for severe increasing
as early as Tuesday as increased instability combines a passing
shortwave disturbance aloft. A more substantial severe threat may be
upon us by the Thursday/Friday time frame as a more potent upper wave
ejects east from the central/southern Rockies. Stay tuned!

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Cloud deck currently shrouding the skies over the terminals is
anticipated to break up over the next few hours. It appears as
though some clouds will linger through much of the overnight hours.
There is some indication that enough low-level moisture in the area
could allow fog to form but as long as (and the longer) clouds
linger, the less likely that is to come to fruition by the pre-dawn
hours Saturday. Will monitor trends throughout the evening and update
for the next TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail at
all four terminals during the day Saturday with southeasterly winds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...lg


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