Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192301
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 553 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

Near term weather concerns revolve around a lone supercell currently
in southern Iowa. The progged motion of this storm is to move
generally 320 degrees (toward the SE), however there is a more
southerly propagation component to this storms as updrafts go up on
its southern and southwestern flanks. Should this motion continue,
expect this storm to move into Mercer/Putnam/Schuyler Counties within
the next 60 minutes. The environment appears to remain conducive to
supercells, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and Effective Bulk Shear
around 35 knots. 0-1 km SRH is around 100 m2/s2 in that area, however
it`s likely a little higher considering its hard south/southeast
motion. Effective SRH will likely increase through the night with the
strengthening low level jet. Despite signals from SPC mesoanalysis
that ML CIN will remain minimal over the next couple hours, with the
sun angle low it`s more likely that inhibition will increase over
that time. Also with more updrafts going up on the S/SW flank of the
storm there could be some interference with the organization of the
storm itself. Will continue to watch trends over the next hour or so.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

1) Only weather concern in the short term will be focused in
northeast Missouri as a cold front, currently located over central
Iowa, slides south this evening into tonight. Models remain fairly
consistent keeping the majority of our area capped, with the southern
end of convection likely following near the H7 10C temperature
gradient. Unionville to Kirksville will see the most probable chances
for thunderstorms tonight, between midnight to 5am. A strong to
severe storm will be possible, with large hail the most likely form
of hazardous weather.

2) Temperatures will remain warm through the remainder of the week,
roughly 10 degrees above average. High humidity will also persist
through the work week, with afternoon heat indicies in the middle to
upper 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) A chance for thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday night
into Thursday across far northwest Missouri as the current closed low
off the California coast opens and shifts into the Plains. This
feature will open and substantially weaken, glancing the forecast
area as it moves through.

4) A large pattern change remains in the cards this weekend as a
highly amplified trough approaches the High Plains. The exact
evolution remains uncertain, as several pieces of energy will break
off and shift just west and north of the forecast area through the
weekend. The flow will become somewhat meridional, with slow eastward
progression of the overall trough. This spells some uncertainty in
timing the arrival of precipitation, and likewise the coverage.
Storms that do make it into the area will have the potential for
locally heavy rainfall with the relatively weak and unidirectional
upper flow combined with high precipitable water values. Currently,
the best chances for thunderstorms will come on Sunday into Monday
before a cold front moves through and high pressure builds back in
behind the front.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

VFR expected through the period. May see shallow patchy fog or
stratus along the frontal passage prior to sunrise Tuesday, but
model spread and uncertainty prohibits mention in forecast at this
time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale...Leighton
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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