Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222007
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Another day, another round of weak forcing leading to convection, and
another possible wrench into the extreme heat we`ve been having.
Although I don`t mind missing the forecast when it means it doesn`t
get as hot. For the rest of this afternoon and into the overnight, a
weak wave moving east through northern KS/southern NE is aiding
thunderstorm development in that area. Short-range models have a
decent handle on this and have added slight chance PoPs into
northwestern portions of the forecaster for this evening and
overnight. The other feature that may affect us, either directly as a
result of convection moving into the area, or indirectly with outflow
moving in, is an area of storms that has formed in northern SD.
Thickness contours suggest that if this continues to grow upscale
that it could move southeast into the forecast area late
tonight/tomorrow morning. Models have a very poor handle on this
feature so it will need to monitored to see just how far southeast it
can go tonight.

Presuming no convective debris moves into the area, the larger scale
pattern continues to favor oppressive heat. Very warm temperatures
aloft combined with high dewpoints should continue to lead to heat
indices in the 105 to 110 range Saturday. For Sunday, models
continue to bring a cold front into the area. It still looks like
northern Missouri won`t be as hot as the previous several days. So
the current heat headlines continue to look in decent shape. With
that in mind, will continue the heat warning for the southern half
of the forecast area through Sunday.

Once that front settles into the area Sunday evening/night, the
forecast becomes unsettled from Sunday night through at least the
middle of next week and possibly through the end of the week. With
the ridge pushed to the west, we`ll be in weak northwesterly flow
aloft with the boundary drifting in the area. With this pattern, we
could see several convective clusters move into or develop over the
area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Southeasterly winds
today should become more southerly with time as the influence of the
outflow boundary that moved through earlier wanes. There is some
indication that a thunderstorm complex may form northwest of the
terminals and move into parts of northwestern MO/northeastern KS.
Confidence is not high enough at this time to depict this in the
forecast, especially since there is very warm air aloft that should
suppress or cause to weaken any cluster that moves into the area.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

Update...CDB
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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