Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 182005

305 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Issued at 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected for
the weekend and into early next week, as northwest flow flattens
across the central CONUS and upper-level high pressure begins to
build over the desert southwest. Highs should return to the 90s by
Sunday in eastern KS and far western MO, and Monday for the rest of
the CWA. The upper high will continue to expand and bulge eastward
through the end of the forecast period, holding highs in the 90s and
lows in the 70s through at least late next week.

A few thunderstorms are possible late Monday night into Tuesday as a
shortwave trough rides over the ridge and across the northern
Plains, where additional forcing will be provided by an eastward-
shifting nocturnal LLJ. These storms may stay mainly north of the
forecast area Monday night, but any remnants/propagation could
affect the CWA on Tuesday morning. Another shortwave trough will dip
southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday night,
potentially dragging a weak cold front and some associated scattered
storms through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Frontal passage shouldn`t significantly change the summer-like
airmass, but any lingering cloud cover or precipitation could impact
temperatures slightly on Wednesday. Generally, the upper high and
dry air aloft will keep rain chances barely above climatology next
week, but near-surface moisture availability and forcing nearby will
keep that chance higher than any other period on Tuesday morning and
Tuesday night - Wednesday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus will continue to develop this afternoon
through early evening. Although the cu will likely diminish after
sunset, additional stratus with similar ceiling height will head in
from the west, keeping ceilings around 4-5 kft through Saturday
morning. Winds will remain light, varying from ESE to SSE through the
TAF period.




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