000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair