008
FXUS63 KEAX 270836
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potential for storms this afternoon and evening. One or two
  of the strongest storms could produce severe conditions.
  Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend. No
  severe weather anticipated at this time.

- Much more seasonal temperatures expected for the first half of
  next week. Less humid conditions should make being outside
  more comfortable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A stalled surface boundary draped across northeast MO extending into
central MO has resulted in additional thunderstorms early this
morning. Storms are expected to continue to dissipate through the
early morning hours. Clearing behind the surface boundary will allow
temperatures to warm this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions are
expected with the mid-upper level ridge still impacting the area.
Highs for today are anticipated to range in upper 80s to low 90s.

There is a potential for some isolated to scattered storms this
afternoon into the evening as remnant outflow boundaries provide
just enough lift to develop thunderstorms with diurnal heating. The
most favorable area for storms will be in southern MO towards the
Ozarks (perhaps just grazing the southern fringes of our CWA). Into
the late afternoon, a H5 shortwave trough extending from the Great
Lakes Region into southwest KS provides additional lift initiating
storms along and north of I-70. A few of the strongest storms this
afternoon/evening could produce strong to severe conditions. CAPE
values around 2,500-3,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong
updrafts. Weak shear (SFC-500 bulk shear values below 20 kts) will
result in storms being short-lived and disorganized. DCAPE values
exceeding 1,000 J/kg and inverted-v soundings suggest the main
threat will be damaging winds. Chances for hail remain very low, as
storms are anticipated to be too short-lived for significant hail
growth. For now, this threat is expected to remain isolated in
nature as recent CAMs keep the coverage of the storms minimal and
forcing along the boundary will be fairly weak. The SPC Convective
Outlook keeps our CWA in general thunder, which means severe is not
expected, however given the instability and some lift, one or two
storms could produce severe conditions.

PWATs range from 1.5 to 2 inches keeping the chances for efficient
rain-producing storms alive. Some of the strongest storms could
produce brief downpours. Additional rainfall could aggravate areas
that have already received significant rainfall. Storms over our area
are anticipated to be transient enough to limit additional flooding
concerns.

Rain chances (25%-35%) persist into the start of the weekend with a
few shortwaves moving through the flow. Areas south of I-70 seem to
be the most likely, but there is still uncertainty due to diverging
solutions among ensemble suites. Late Sunday into Monday, troughing
extending from eastern Canada pushes a surface cold front through
the area resulting in a chance for thunderstorms. Severe chances
seem low at this time given the limited shear. Welcomed cooler,
drier temperatures behind the front are anticipated for the first
half of next week. Smaller temperature spreads between models imply
higher confidence in cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A cluster of storms currently moving through the KSTJ, KMKC,
KMCI terminals will keep conditions varying from IFR to VFR for
the first few hours of the TAF period. Storms anticipated to
stay to the northeast of KIXD, but an outflow boundary may
briefly increase winds to 20-25 kts. A little after midnight,
winds out of the south weaken to around 5-7 kts. Another round
of storms possible this evening after 23Z. Some uncertainty
persists with location and timing of the storms, so went with
PROB30 group for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier