Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191144

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

A fairly active pattern is expected this week, with precipitation
chances every day. Currently, the area is sandwiched between an
exiting surface high and approaching surface low. A warm front,
associated with the surface low, will continue to lift north,
while a subtle upper-level shortwave and isentropic lift on the
300K surface moves over the area. This will produce a chance of
scattered precipitation this morning in the southern part of the
forecast area. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question
either with instability around 800 J/kg. No severe weather is
expected though. Any precipitation that forms should diminish
this afternoon. The strong WAA moving into the area will allow
temperatures to reach the mid 60s to low 80s Sunday and Monday.

Tonight, the aforementioned surface low will move through the
area with an associated cold front. In addition, an 850 mb LLJ will
amplify creating another chance for thunderstorms, but this
time along the eastern border of the forecast area. The best chance
for convection has moved east of the area but the chance still
exists from Kirksville to Boonville. Some storms could become
strong and produce marginally severe hail. The front will exit
the area Monday evening and stall near the MO/AR border, keeping
precipitation chances along our southern border Tuesday. The rest
of the forecast area could also see some rain showers Tuesday as
an upper-level shortwave trough moves across the Midwest.

A surface high and upper-level ridge will move into the
area behind the aforementioned front, cooling temperatures to
near-normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Another upper-level shortwave is
expected to move along the upper-level ridge axis Wednesday and
may produce some light precipitation but moisture seems to be
limited. Our attention then turns to early Thursday morning
through Saturday morning as a strong upper-level trough enters the
West Coast, sending pulses of energy our way before finally moving
through. At the surface, a low pressure system will develop
advecting warm air and moisture into the area. Organized
convection is possible with this system and there is potential
for some severe weather.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

While the SREF probabilities still lean towards VFR ceilings today,
multiple model soundings and other products (RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS)
suggest MVFR ceilings for a few hours today; therefore, have
dropped ceilings during the day. Also have mentioned the
possibility of showers and storms as we are already seeing some
isolated development, mainly south of I-70. This activity will
continue to develop in an isolated fashion and move to the east
(south of I-70) as the day goes on. A cold front will push through
the area overnight veering the winds and keeping them gusty. The
low-level jet will strengthen overnight as well and aid in the
development of low-level wind shear for a few hours along the cold
front. Once the front has moved through the low-level wind shear
threat will diminish and winds will become light.




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