000
FXUS63 KEAX 180514
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 115 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

Widespread severe weather is still on track today along a strong
cold front expected to push through the CWA this afternoon and well
into the evening hours. Also, expecting to see dangerous heat levels
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri today with continued
increasing dew point values, combined with air temperatures rising
into the low to perhaps mid 90s. Lingering storms this morning
have produced a thinning cirrus canopy over the area, which has
kept temperatures in check slightly, though dangerous heat remains
likely this afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in
effect until 7 PM as heat indices will approach 105 to 109 degrees
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Caution should be
exercised during afternoon and evening outdoor activities in light
of these conditions. The next hazardous weather feature to
monitor is with the likelihood for damaging winds and large hail,
with a possible isolated tornado risk beginning by the late
afternoon into the late evening hours. In the wake of Friday night
convection across much of the area, the northwest to
southeastward oriented cold pool generated from this activity has
left behind a stagnant boundary across northeastern Kansas into
northwestern Missouri. Strong warm moist advection from the Gulf
of Mexico continues to feed into eastern Kansas and is pooling
moisture over northeastern Kansas as a result. A westward to
eastward stratocumulus layer depicted on visible satellite imagery
also gives evidence to this, and this boundary may add to the
complex scenario presented for afternoon convection as the
synoptic front pushes through the area.

The cold front is currently situated across southeastern Nebraska
and will be pushed to the southeast ahead of a deepening upper-level
trough now approaching the Central Plains. Convection is expected to
fire along the front as it advances southeastward, though where
exactly this will occur remains uncertain. The aforementioned
building cloud layer across northeastern Kansas and northern
Missouri may inhibit convection from firing along the front early
on. Also is the consideration that the previously mentioned thermal
boundary south of this cloud layer may provide enhanced convergence
along the synoptic front as it pushes through later this afternoon.
For now, generally thinking that ascent will be limited along the
front until reaching areas south of Highway 36. The front looks to
advance through this area in the 4 PM to 6 PM time frame, eventually
reaching the Kansas City Metro by 6 PM to 8 PM. Storms will then
reach peak intensity along and south of the I-70 corridor, though
the severe threat will commence from the onset of convection, given
the potent environment with the lingering highly unstable airmass
and ample bulk shear values near 40 to 50 kts where convection will
form. Large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary threat
during the duration of the frontal passage and subsequent
thunderstorm activity. The tornadic potential will be limited by
low-level flow parallel to the frontal boundary, though areas
south of Highway 36 and north of I-70 may see an isolated tornado
risk considering the backed surface flow orientation ahead of the
frontal boundary.

Thunderstorms should exit the CWA by early Sunday morning, with much
more pleasant conditions expected to form in the wake of the cold
front. Cooler temperatures will settle across the area both Sunday
and Monday, in addition to dry conditions persisting into the mid-
week. By that time, embedded disturbances within northwest flow atop
a returning warm sector will present the next chance of thunderstorm
development, along with steadily increasing temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

A few scattered showers may drift in and out of all TAF sites over
the next few hours, then should gradually push south of the area
by sunrise. Ceilings will remain VFR, and will progressively
scatter out during the morning. Winds will briefly increase out of
the north northwest over the next 1-2 hours, then will become
lighter and a bit variable in direction until after sunrise
Sunday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin