Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Continued cold air advection over the past 24 hours has lead to some
very nice below normal temperatures across the region for late
August. The cool surface high will moderate over the next couple of
days, but this should help hold afternoon highs down in 80s for the
next few days with clear to mostly clear skies dominating. Next
significant weather feature we will be watching for is a trough
moving from the Gulf of Alaska into British Columbia, as this trough
will bring more storms to the region as it moves east across the
Canadian Plains Tuesday through Thursday.

Current model timing advertises that the parent trough moving across
Canada will help develop a cold front across the northern Plains
late Monday, with the trough dragging the front through the Central
Plains Tuesday through Thursday. Current expectations are that there
will be some warm air advection storm activity, maybe as early as
Tuesday afternoon, ahead of the front as it begins to transit the
Plains, which might get focused across far northern Missouri and
points north Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then the front will
settle into the Lower Missouri River Valley Wednesday night bring
more storms with the potential like the complex of storms that moved
through this past Friday night. It`s likely that we might dry out a
bit Thursday into Friday of the work week as more cool air chases
the storm system into the Plains, however more rain will not be far
away as another smaller and more progressive shortwave trough looks
to bring another round of storms next weekend with some persistent
warm air advection. Thus, the tail end of August continues to
locally looking a bit cool and wet.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all the terminals through this TAF
cycle. Expect light north winds to become a bit variable this
afternoon before turning to the south this evening as a surface high
moves across the region.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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