Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170830
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Classic fall weather is slated to continue for the remainder of the
work week, with little in the way of consequential weather or
challenging aspects of the forecast. The majority of the work week
will feature a dry northwest flow pattern before a transition to
southwesterly flow in advance of a highly amplified upper trough
passing through the Rockies on Friday into Saturday. Dry weather
with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal can be expected
during the work week.

A strong pressure gradient will develop across the Plains states
with surface high pressure anchored over the Appalachians and a lee
trough forming over the High Plains. This will bring some breezy
conditions on Friday and Saturday, along with an increase in
moisture with dewpoints returning to the 60s. A strong H85 low-level
jet and insentropic ascent will bring our next chance at showers and
thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. There may be
a brief break in convection during the day on Saturday, but
increasing large scale ascent with the upper trough and surface
forcing along the cold front should spawn widespread showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Rain
chances should rapidly decrease following the frontal passage, along
with cooler and drier air advecting into the region for Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Surface wind should remain out of the southwest around 5 to 10
mph, but should the surface winds go calm then the 30-35 kts at
700 to 1000 feet may create some low level wind shear concerns.
Occasional gusts up to 20 kts on Tuesday will be possible through
the day before winds come back to a steady 5-10 after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Leighton


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