Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251844

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
144 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 143 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

As of early this afternoon, mid-level clouds were beginning to
filter into the forecast area. Primary change through the next 6-12
hours is the addition of rain chances. Upstream radar returns
continue to show an expansion of shower activity across north
central into northeast Kansas. This area is in a favored zone of
frontogenesis and weak isentropic ascent. Most model guidance brings
this activity into east central Kansas into west central Missouri
later this afternoon into the evening hours, and this appears to be
a fairly reasonable region to see focused shower activity. Kansas
City and points south and west will see the most probable area of
measuring precipitation during this period. This activity should
eventually push south of the CWA overnight, potentially leaving the
area rain-free.

Models begin to diverge on Monday`s weather as the overall focus
remains fairly subtle. The general signal for the next round for
showers and isolated thunderstorms as weak instability increases
appear to be tied to the approach of an embedded shortwave trough
approaching northern Missouri tomorrow afternoon, well-depicted at
the H5 layer vorticity, and a weak wind shift sagging through
southern Iowa. Convection is anticipated to develop in the proximity
of these features to the north of the forecast area, potentially
during the morning hours, with some intensification/expansion during
the afternoon hours into Missouri. Convection should dissipate/shift
south of the area during the evening hours Monday.

The daylight hours of Tuesday are expected to be dry as weak upper
ridging moves back into the region. This dry period should be short-
lived as a more active pattern evolves across the central CONUS. A
parade of stronger shortwave troughs within near zonal westerly flow
will move across the Central Plains in advance of an evolving upper
trough Tuesday night through Friday. With increasing upper ascent
and a return of deeper moisture, conditions will become more
conducive for thunderstorm chances. There remains modest model
spread regarding timing of the waves, but general theme will be to
anticipate chances for thunderstorms each period Wednesday into
Friday. As this time, a cold front is projected to push through the
forecast area late Friday night with surface high pressure building
into the mid-Missouri Valley. This would spell a dry weekend with
temperatures near-normal levels.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Upstream mid-level
clouds will move into the area this afternoon. Models hint at
scattered showers developing just south of terminal space late this
afternoon into the early evening. Will keep out of forecast at this
time, but slight chance a brief window of VFR showers impacting KC
terminals. Clouds may clear to some degree overnight with another
slight chance at precipitation at/near terminals at the conclusion
of the forecast period.




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