Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 281922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin





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