Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 250438
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Forecast challenges include excessive heat, timing for convection,
and heavy rain threat over northern Missouri. Despite convective
debris this morning temperatures recovered quickly over most of the
area. The exception was over far north central and northeast Missouri
where thunderstorm activity dove south from Iowa. Convection over
eastern part of the forecast area appears to be starting to weaken
however still moving into very warm unstable air so would not be
surprised to see it linger into the evening hours.

For the overnight, upper wave forecast to top the upper ridge
centered over the central Plains. With weak surface boundary pushing
into northern Missouri later tonight and precipitable water values
pushing 2 inches, heavy rain certainly a possibility generally north
of highway 36.

With surface boundary in the vicinity and on-going morning convection
temperatures in northern Missouri should be below heat advisory
criteria. However further south...generally south of the Missouri
River...less cloud cover along with the position of the upper ridge
should allow heat index values to once again climb in excess of 105
degrees. Although readings should be a couple of degrees cooler
tomorrow than today most locations south of the Missouri river should
reach advisory criteria. As a result a heat advisory will be in
effect for this area. Depending on extent of overnight convection not
out of the question that KC metro and southwestern part of forecast
area could approach warning criteria.

Once again on Saturday night and Sunday good chances for convection
especially over northern Missouri. Sunday looks to be warm again,
however still a lot of questions regarding timing and position of
thunderstorm activity and as a result will hold off on heat advisory
at this time.

Generally warm conditions continue into the first part of next week
until a front approaches the region on Wednesday bringing another
chance for thunderstorm activity. This should bring drier and bit
cooler air into the region for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Main focus for overnight convection remains across northern MO. One
small cluster tracking from northwest into north central MO will
likely be followed by a much larger convective system which could
yield very heavy rainfall. VFR ceilings except within the
thunderstorm complexes where MVFR ceilings and localized IFR
visibilities will be encountered with gusts in the 40-45kt range.
Except for KSTJ the terminals over west central MO will likely miss
most if not all the rain overnight.

Where convective boundaries end up Saturday morning will go a long
ways in determining where later afternoon and evening convection
develops. Currently thinking northern MO will once again be the
primary region for storms. Will leave all but KSTJ terminals dry with
VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028-029-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mitchell
AVIATION...MJ



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