Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2017

This forecast package is highlighted by mostly fair conditions
over the next couple of days, but by the middle to latter part of
this weekend an increasingly active pattern will emerge across the
forecast area. The mid/upper ridge over the area breaks
down/shifts east over the next couple days, ushering in southwest
flow aloft to the west of the forecast area. Warm air advection
along with perhaps some help from a mid level shortwave trough has
developed some showers and thunderstorms across central and
northern Nebraska. Within the warm air advection regime across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri there could be a few isolated
to scattered showers with not quite the coverage as in Nebraska
due to a further distance from the shortwave trough. The
warm/moist air advection ahead of the surface trough located over
the High Plains will not only make things a bit warmer on Friday,
but with dew points in the middle to upper 60s heat indices will
jump to the upper 80s to lower 90s today.

For Saturday the pattern will persist with southwest flow to the
west and good southerly flow at the surface, putting the area in
the warm sector. Expect another upper 80 to lower 90 degree day
with similar heat indices, considering TDs in the upper 60s. Best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be across far eastern
Kansas and western Missouri, where stiff southerly low level jet
will persist near a surface/low level boundary. Another in a
series of shortwave troughs will also glide through SE Nebraska at
this time, again focusing the best ascent more across
western/northwestern Missouri for Saturday. By Saturday afternoon
a cold front will push into northern Missouri and by late in the
day, perhaps in the evening, will develop storms across the KC
metro area and the I-70 corridor. Given the influx of moisture
between now and then instability will be on the order of around
1500 J/kg of ML CAPE, and given the strong mid/upper jet in the
area there should be enough deep layer sheer to go along with the
instability to cause a concern for some strong to severe
thunderstorms on Saturday. Expect the bulk of the storms to
continue south and east, but the boundary itself will likely get
hung up somewhere near the I-70 corridor. This could bring a wet
Sunday into play as the boundary shifts its course and slowly
lifts north.

For Sunday, into early next week, the aforementioned low level
boundary will hang up before gradually moving north. However, for
Sunday into monday the mid level flow will run roughly parallel to
the stalled out boundary, which could bring several periods of
rain to the area for Sunday and Monday. By mid week, the southwest
flow pattern aloft continues, but models are starting to hint at
more of an organized pattern with a broad trough over the
intermountain west bringing numerous shortwave troughs through the
area during the mid to late week time period. While details of
this pattern will need to be addressed at a much later time, there
are indications of a pattern mid week next week indicative of at
least a couple periods of strong to severe storms mid/late next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2017

Marginal low level wind shear will persist through the morning
hours, before going away shortly after sunrise. Stiff southerly
winds will then persist through the day with gusts approaching 25
kts. Showers and thunderstorms will likely remain away from the
terminals, but can`t completely rule out a stray shower near a
terminal later this morning. Winds will slightly diminish
overnight, but could keep gusts over 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton



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