Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271048

548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A decaying area of showers and thunderstorms across central Kansas is
sending a bkn-ovc shield of cirrus clouds into the terminals this
morning. This cirrus shield will become more scattered this
afternoon. A few cu clouds around 4-5kft will be possible from late
morning into the afternoon as well. This evening into the overnight
expect just sct mid-lvl clouds. Light winds this morning will pick up out
of the south around 5-10kts by mid-morning


KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.



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