Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250844
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Scattered rain showers are ongoing across the area this morning, as
a mid level trough slowly pushes east through the Mid Missouri River
Valley this weekend. At the surface, a cold front is positioned
along a line generally from KOMA to KDDC. Behind this cold front
much cooler and drier air is present across the northern and central
plains. By Sunday afternoon this cold front should push through the
area. The result will be an effective end to the chances for rain
from W/NW to E/SE as the dry air moves in and subsidence aloft
builds in behind the departing trough. In the mean time, while the
trough axis is still to the west of the area and warm/moist air is
still present we will continue to see scattered showers. By this
afternoon some modest instability could build back into the area,
which will cause some of these showers to become a bit more robust
than the showers ongoing through the early morning hours. Thunder
within these showers should pick up through the day. Not
anticipating much in the way of strong or severe storms, there could
be some rumbles of thunder today along with brief periods of
moderate to heavy rain. Minor river flooding is ongoing among a few
local creeks and streams, but the amount of flooding through the day
is not anticipated to increase much. As mentioned earlier the cold
front will move through the area later this afternoon which will end
the chances for rain upon its passage. The cooler/drier air behind
the front will bring much needed relief from the recent much-above
normal temperatures. We are looking at around normal highs through
the week with max temps likely being in the middle 70s. Usable
moisture appears to be lacking through the extended forecast period,
so will keep PoPs minimal (dry) through the next 7 days.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to build east and
weaken over the next few hours, impacting all TAF sites between now
and around 09z before becoming spottier. Winds will be variable,
eventually turning to the west southwest and then sharply to the
northwest after a cold front passes through mid-Sunday-morning.
Ceilings should remain VFR, and any significant reduction in
visibility with stronger showers should be over by 06z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Laflin


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