Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231937

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
237 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 237 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

A weak cold front is moving through the area currently. The only
effect of this will have is a wind switch to the north and a bit
cooler temperatures tomorrow. The high pressure associated with this
frontal passage will remain north of the area Monday and eventually
move into the Great Lakes area Tuesday. This will switch low level
flow back to the south. At the same time a progressive but deepening
upper level trough will move across the Rockies Tuesday and into the
Plains Wednesday. This will increase warm advection in the region
Tuesday afternoon and as a result, temperatures should surge back
into the mid to perhaps upper 70s. It will also lead to stronger
southerly winds. While the strongest winds will be further west,
eastern KS and western MO may see winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher
gusts as the low level jet strengthens over the region. This sets up
a very mild Tuesday night with the atmosphere remaining well mixed
ahead of an advancing cold front associated with the upper trough.
The warm and unseasonably moist air will help lead to showers and
thunderstorms across the area. The best chances for precipitation
will be across northern MO and into IA, closer the upper trough and
surface low. But the entire area will see a good chance for showers
and storms as the front passes through Wednesday.

Mild late October weather will continue through the end of the week
as the airmass behind the Wednesday front is only slightly cooler.
And as that area of high pressure quickly moves east, low level flow
quickly becomes southerly and the pattern practically repeats
itself. Friday looks very warm for this time of year with ample warm
advection and deep mixing into that warm air. Have increased
temperatures several degrees to get highs in the upper 70s but given
how warm 850mb temperatures are forecast to be, 17C to 19C, that
could lead to highs in the lower 80s. Of course when temperatures
this time year get much warmer than usual, it`s usually the result
of a dynamic system moving through the middle of the country. And
that is the case for the end of the week as a strong but progressive
trough moves through the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This plows the next cold front into the area Friday night
into Saturday. With the best dynamics well north of the forecast
area, this looks like a mostly dry frontal passage. There is quite a
bit of variability though with the timing of the front as the ECMWF
is much slower than the GFS.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

A weak cold front is moving through the area currently but this will
only amount to a wind shift to the north over the next few hours.
Winds will remain light through the period but will gradually become
easterly by tomorrow morning. Otherwise, only high clouds are
expected to impact the area with VFR conditions expected through the
entire forecast.




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