Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240309
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.Update...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Been watching two areas...OMA area and north central KS
supercell...for the past few hours. The OMA activity has congealed
and now forming an expanding cold pool which is now pushing
southeast. The north central KS supercell has morphed into an
accelerating bow echo. Both features will be enhanced and maintained
by an increasing ssw low level jet. All that said have adjusted the
PoPs over northwest/west central MO and adjacent eastern KS to
account for these developments/expectations.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 304 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

So far, other than some showers and a few isolated thunderstorms that
popped up throughout the first portion of the day, the weather has
thus far been relatively quiet. However, there is continued
anticipation of convection amping up as the night progresses.
Currently looking at the potential for two main rounds of storms this
evening into the overnight hours. The first would be this afternoon
into the evening hours, thanks to the combination of some
destabilization plus an increasing LLJ, although lapse rates have
been paltry. This LLJ will continue to intensify as the night
continues, opening up the door for round two of storms to occur
around midnight through as late as the pre-dawn hours. Of particular
note, all of the models seem to be struggling resolving what`s going
on and what`s to occur so haven`t been able to hone in on one
particular model. As for the primary threats, wind would be at the
top of the list should storms go severe, although hail and a brief
spin-up aren`t out of the question.

Another severe weather threat exists for late tomorrow as a frontal
boundary approaches from the north and west. Increasing shear values
with a potentially even more unstable airmass ahead of the front
yields a bit more of a concern for the severe potential tomorrow. The
limiting factor would be the timing as model runs have been slowing
down the front`s progression. Primary hazard looks to again be gusty
to perhaps damaging winds but there is the added threat of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall creating a localized flood threat,
particularly if storms train over the same areas and where flash
flood guidance might be lower.

For the remainder of the forecast period, couldn`t feasibly remove
PoPs from any period as the region remains locked in an unsettled
pattern. The aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across
central to southern MO Thursday before washing out on Friday. With
ample moisture flowing in under southerly to southwesterly flow into
the weekend and the forecast area sitting on the periphery of ridging
to the east, the door is left open for multiple days of convection
chances for the forecast area, although not everyone will of course
see rain everyday. Temperatures generally speaking will remain near
or slightly below normal for this time of year, especially under any
sort of cloud cover that may limit daytime heating. Wednesday looks
to be the warmest day of week for the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area with these locations sitting within the warm sector
ahead of the front.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Current convection over northeast and north central MO tied to a warm
front which is lifting northeast, so expect this convection to move
out of the region by early evening. Other convection expected to move
into southeast NE and southwest IA this evening and move across
mainly northern MO overnight. Activity could reach down to the MO
River should a strong enough outflow boundary form and nose
southeast. Otherwise, VFR ceilings except for pockets of MVFR within
the stronger storms. Gusty southerly winds should weaken by mid
evening.

For Wednesday main chances for showers and storms will be across
northern MO and northeast KS and mainly in the afternoon hours. Rest
of the region should be generally dry with VFR conditions.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Update...MJ
Discussion...lg
Aviation...MJ


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