Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 250449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ005>008-
     014>017-022>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73






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