Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 170337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Cold front and associated convection have moved south and east of the
CWA and thus eliminated any additional threat for measurable
rainfall. Now there could still be some sprinkles falling out of the
wrap around cloudiness over the eastern counties but if it does occur
it wouldn`t even wet the pavement. Otherwise, fog is the main concern
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The weak upper level wave that brought the overnight rain is
currently centered over far north central MO with an attendant cold
front draped southwest from there. The front will be the focus for
afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Modest instability exists but bulk
shear is weak thus the severe threat is low with strong winds and
locally heavy rains the main issues. What activity does develop
should clear the CWA later this evening. Skies will be slow to clear
but with light winds and a moist boundary layer, patchy to locally
dense fog is expected to develop after midnight tonight, mainly north
of I-70.

Tomorrow should see low chances for scattered showers across the
eastern CWA with much of the CWA remaining dry and mild. Late
tomorrow night into Monday a trough moves across the far northern
Upper Midwest which will help kick off scattered TSRA early Monday
morning then into the day and evening. Not expecting anything severe
with the activity. From then on the region will be under the
influence of a building ridge. The ridge will allow for the return of
hot and humid air with low chance pops (mainly nocturnal) through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MVFR low clouds across northern MO slowly dissipating as they rotate
west towards KSTJ/KMCI. May see a few hours of MVFR cigs at start of
the forecast. Otherwise, main theme will be fog forming. UPS fog and
LAMP output suggest dense fog potential at KSTJ. Given wet ground,
calm winds with clearing skies think this is a good set-up for it.
Fog expected to lift to an MVFR cig by mid morning before scattering
out by noon-time....then VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ





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