Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161007
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
407 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 407 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2018

Breezy north winds, that swept into the region Thursday, kept going
through the overnight hours resulting in cold temperatures across
the region this morning as well as squeezing a few flurries out.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a broad trough over North
America, inducing a locally zonal flow across our section of the
Plains States this morning. However, several shortwave features
within the larger trough will dictate our weather over the coming
days. First shortwave trough noted is exiting the Rocky mountains
this morning, and while it helped  with the cold air advection and
squeezing a few flurries out of the sky overnight, it will ultimately
just help usher more cool air across the Lower Missouri River Valley
today as any flurries shift to our east with the parent shortwave.
But, a secondary trough will then sweep in behind for the weekend,
helping push temperatures back into a more Spring like range for
the weekend and beginning of the work week as warm air advection
leads the trough into the Plains. However, the warmer weather
this weekend may come with a chance for rain/snow --depending on
surface temperatures at the time-- thanks to returning Gulf
moisture Saturday morning. However, moisture transport points at
southern and eastern Missouri being the most likely areas to get
wet, while northwest Missouri will likely remain mostly dry.
However, this is not the end of our precipitation chances, as
ensemble and operational models all point at the development of a
large trough across the West Coast by early next work week, which
would have the downstream effect of inducing a southwest flow
across our section of the Plains States from Sunday on into the
work week. The development of the late weekend/early work week
trough to our west will keep precipitation chance percolating
across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri from Sunday evening
through Tuesday night, when the main western trough is expect to
lift out of the Desert Southwest, allowing cold air to sweep back
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Otherwise, given
the warm air advection ahead of the western trough, have kept a
mention of embedded thunder for Monday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU FEB 15 2018

Stratus is gradually moving into the area, bringing clouds down to
around FL015. Gusty winds will persist for the next few hours,
gradually diminishing to around 5-10 kts around sunrise Friday
morning. Low clouds will move out, leaving either SKC or some
scattered cirrus at FL250 for the remainder of the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Leighton



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