Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 242026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh






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