Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182329
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

A quiet weather day across the region today. Afternoon temperatures
have warmed into the middle 60s, which is near but still below
normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure has allowed for
light and variable winds this afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates
allowed diurnally driven cu field to quickly develop during the late
morning hours. Maybe a sprinkle or two through the remainder of the
afternoon, but clouds should begin to dissipate by this evening.

Southwest trough will finally eject out onto the plains overnight,
translating across the Southern Plains. Models have trended this
system further south with the bulk of the precipitation remaining
well south of the CWA. A few showers may make it as far north as
Interstate 70 by early Friday morning; however, best chances to see
any precip will remain along the southern CWA boundary. By Saturday,
a ridge will build over the High Plains as the eastern trough is
slow to move on and the incoming western trough dives into the
Pacific Northwest. The weekend looks warm and dry with temperatures
warming back into the mid and upper 70s.

Unsettled weather will return late Sunday night/Monday morning as
the Pacific trough rides down the coastline. Instead of ejecting as
one trough, this system will send several shortwave troughs into the
plains. The first of these is progged to eject late Sunday and will
move quickly towards the western Great Lakes. Increasing instability
and shear values indicate that anything that develops Monday could
be strong to severe, so this system warrants close monitoring as
head through the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

Expect no flight restrictions for the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain generally out of the southeast around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Leighton



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