Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1018 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

The stagnant upper-level pattern and resulting prolonged heat event
which marked much of last week has eroded, which will bring a
return of more seasonal temperatures to the local area in the
early week. For the remainder of Sunday afternoon, heat indices
will be moderated by a slightly drier airmass, rising into the
upper 90s, compared to Saturday heat indices around 110 degrees.
Also, aside from a diurnally driven CU field, expecting to see
mostly clear skies continue into the evening and overnight hours
as a broad surface ridge continues to fill in across the region.

A secondary frontal boundary will approach northern Missouri this
evening, which will usher in an even drier airmass heading into the
work week. Dew points will drop into the upper 60s, which, in
comparison to recent trends, will provide a noticeable difference in
comfort level both Monday and Tuesday. The 850 hPa thermal ridge
will center over southeastern Nebraska by Monday afternoon, which
will create a modest surface temp gradient across the CWA. Areas
across west and central Missouri will see afternoon highs rise
into seasonal upper 80s underneath the thermal ridge, while
northeast Missouri will peak in the low to mid 80s Monday
afternoon.

As an upper level ridge, now centered over the Four Corners, pushes
eastward during the early week, a deepening upper low will trek east
over southern Canada and suppress the ridge as it advances closer to
the local area. This will create a more zonal pattern overhead
Tuesday into Wednesday. The next reasonable chance of precipitation
will arrive Wednesday night as the northern upper low continues to
deepen, which will send a trailing cold front into the Central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. Though better upper level
dynamics will be situated north of the area, a progged low level
jet will provide ample forcing and enhanced moisture for potential
heavy rainfall as precipitable water values increase to 2.0
inches, well within the 90th percentile for late July. Upper level
moisture may also be enhanced by ongoing tropical activity in the
Eastern Pacific during this time. In the wake of this activity,
slightly cooler temperatures will return to the area along with
dry conditions as we head into the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the exception
of areas north of HWY 36, who may see some MVFR visibilities due
to patchy fog. The nose of a surface high is sliding south into
our area tonight, which will help keep winds light and increase
radiational cooling. This in addition to sufficient low level
moisture being present will lead to the potential for patchy fog.
Timing for the fog is between 11Z and 13Z. Otherwise, the TAF
period should be pretty quiet across the forecast area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Grana


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