Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 010454

1154 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Issued at 258 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Quiet conditions and slightly below normal temperatures will persist
for the foreseeable future, as northeast surface winds and northerly
flow aloft continue to dominate the pattern. High temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 60s most days this week and weekend, and lows
will drop into the lower to mid 40s overnight. Have continued to shy
a few degrees above consensus model products for lows due to a bit
of a low bias in the raw NAM low temperatures; otherwise, very few
changes were made to the going forecast.

The shortwave trough that will eject out of the large-scale trough
on the west coast makes even less eastward progress than previously
forecast before lifting north this weekend, decreasing any potential
for light showers on Saturday or Saturday night. The only real
chance for rainfall through the length of the forecast period will
come mid-next week, as the main longwave trough finally ejects out
into the central CONUS. A slow-moving surface front will sink
through the region as the trough moves out, allowing for several
rounds of light showers near and just behind the boundary from
Tuesday through the end of the period; however with little moisture
return beforehand and no forecast MUCAPE, rainfall amounts should
not be excessive.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

VFR through the period. Only change will be an increase in cirrus
clouds during the day, but no weather impacts to terminals.




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