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000
FXUS63 KEAX 111136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT Sat May 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

Only a few concerns throughout the short term portions of the
forecast, as conditions remain quiet. Early this morning, a surface
boundary continues to make steady progress tracking southeast towards
the CWA. This front is now projected to cross the CWA by the late
morning hours, with limited impacts. Only a limited amount of cold
air initially behind this boundary, therefore not expecting a
significant drop in temperatures. The most realized impact as this
boundary passes will be a sharp increase in northerly winds as 0-1KM
lapse rates quickly steepen, tapping into the 40 to 50 knots of flow
aloft. Sustained winds between 10-20 mph will be likely, with
occasional gusts upwards of 30 mph through early afternoon. Otherwise
a slightly non-diurnal temperature curve today given the anticipation
of a quick rise in temperatures south of the boundary over the
southern third of the CWA. Elsewhere, temperatures will take a bit
longer through the day to climb into the 60s. Very limited moisture
will prevent much in the way of precipitation with this boundary as
it moves through. Better chances of a linear band of
showers/thunderstorms look to be focused closer to the I-44 corridor
by mid-afternoon.

Tonight-Sunday:   Clear skies and a large area of high pressure
centered over the MO river valley will lead to the potential for
record lows by Sunday morning.  Lows in northern Missouri may fall
into the middle to upper 30s with areas closer to I-70 and south finding
themselves near the 40 degree mark. There may also be a bit of patchy
frost in northern Missouri, depending on the degree of decoupling,
however not anticipating a front advisory ATTM.

Mother`s day will be cool, but overall very pleasant as temperatures
steadily rebound into the 60s and winds remain light.  We will need
to watch for the potential of an increase in cloud cover and perhaps
a quickly passing shower Sunday afternoon. The sharp meridional nature
of the upper level flow can often hide very subtle shortwaves, and
the latest model guidance is now suggesting just that idea of a very
quick moving shortwave crossing eastern Kansas Sunday. Models
indicate weak warm advection developing by Sunday afternoon, but only
a shallow layer of moisture aloft. At this point, will not introduce
any precipitation chances, but later shifts may need to monitor this
potential.

Monday:  Warmer air will return in earnest as a building mid-level
ridge shifts eastward.  Surface winds will quickly turn to the
south-southeast Monday morning, with strong low-level warm
advection.  These conditions combined should result in above normal
temperatures in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

Longwave ridging will spread over the central CONUS on Tuesday,
allowing very warm temperatures to build into the forecast area. 850
mb temperatures in the lower 20`s C and decent mixing should allow
high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80`s, especially across
the north. Warm conditions will continue into Wednesday, although
slightly cooler temperatures aloft and increasing cloud cover will
keep highs closer to 80.

An upper low will lift northeast into the forecast area by late
Wednesday or early Thursday, and with decreasing temperatures aloft,
the cap may weaken enough to allow a few isolated thunderstorms to
develop as the wave approaches. The best chance for precipitation
with this feature will be Wednesday night as the upper-trough axis
moves through and the low-level jet increases across the region; and
any thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to linger
into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, confidence in the forecast quickly decreases as
model discrepancies increase. Both the 12z and 00z EC keep an
elevated frontal boundary draped over the region through the end of
the week and into the weekend, spreading precipitation chances
through the remainder of the period, while the GFS builds an
amplified ridge over the central CONUS and keeps the chance of
precipitation much lower. For now, have stuck with the low model
consensus PoPs for the end of the week and into the weekend, and
will refine in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR conditions expected through daybreak Sunday. A front continues to
move into NW Missouri and NE Kansas this morning. Winds will
gradually turn to the north within the upcoming 1-2 hours, with wind
speeds increasing later in the morning. Sustained 10-20 mph winds
with gusts approaching 30 mph will be common through the late
afternoon hours. Accompanying this front will be a very scattered
mid-level cloud deck.

Light winds will return by this evening as high pressure arrives.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Dux