Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 212139
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tonight/Monday Night: As of early this afternoon, widespread cloud
cover and areas of drizzle were observed across the forecast area.
Much of this was in response to continued warm air advection and
moisture transport, in addition to increased ascent from a shortwave
trough, well-defined on water vapor imagery currently centered over
the KS/MO state line. Similar conditions are expected to persist
into the early evening with a few scattered showers and drizzle over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with periods of patchy drizzle
elsewhere. The next and stronger upper disturbance was currently
located upstream over Montana and will rapidly drop into the Central
Plains overnight upon the nose of a 150+kt upper jet. Scattered
showers will gradually increase in coverage tonight across the
forecast area. Models are in good consensus in developing a more
widespread area of rainfall over eastern Kansas into Nebraska late
tonight, with this activity moving/expanding into much of the CWA
Monday morning. A surface cold front is projected to move through
late in the day on Monday, with precipitation ending from west to
east as drier and cooler air advects into the region. A lull in
precipitation is expected Monday night across the area, with
precipitation remaining east and northwest of the CWA. As for
temperatures, the warmest day in the 7-day forecast is expected on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 40s to near 50. Expect
temperatures to fall behind the frontal passage, with lows in the
lower to middle 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Surface low pressure will reside over Iowa by
Tuesday morning, becoming nearly vertically stacked. While much of
the CWA will initially be dry-slotted, sufficient moisture for light
precipitation will wrap around the low pressure region filtering
into portions of northwest Missouri. Periodic ascent is expected
with a series of vorticity maximums rotating around the upper low,
lending a chance for precipitation over initially far NW MO. Model
soundings suggest a rain-snow or all snow environment. This chance
for light precipitation will overspread the remainder of the CWA
Tuesday Night as the aforementioned upper low evolves into a highly
amplified trough. Forecast soundings suggest the vertical temperature
profile will support initially a rain-snow mix before transitioning
to all snow. It should be reemphasized that while a slight chance of
rain/snow will be possible areawide Tuesday night, precipitation
amounts will be light and where snow does occur, little to no
accumulation is anticipated at this time. Any remaining light
precipitation will exit the area from west to east during Wednesday
morning. Cloudy skies will continue through at least Wednesday before
some clearing is anticipated late Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal normals during the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Upper-level flow will quickly recover after the upper trough passes
east of the region Wednesday night, allowing warmer temperatures to
build into the Plains for Christmas Day. Highs are expected to reach
the mid 40s to possibly 50 degrees that afternoon, and the elusive
sun should finally make an appearance over the majority of the
forecast area.

A cold front will push down into the region Thursday night as a
shortwave trough drops from the Pacific NW into the northern Plains.
Although models have been a little inconsistent with this feature,
recent trends have been to deamplify this trough and keep most of
precipitation north of the CWA, so have stayed dry during frontal
passage Thursday night, and kept the chance of snow as the upper
trough moves over Friday very low. Temperatures will be noticeably
cooler in the front`s wake; however, most of the arctic air will
remain confined to portions of the far northern Plains into Canada,
only knocking temperatures back to near their seasonal normals in
our area.

Model agreement decreases significantly after Friday as a few more
shortwave troughs push onto the West Coast and a deeper low rotates
down from Canada into the Great Lakes region, but model consensus is
that no precipitation is expected with these features. Temperatures
will likely fall again toward the end of the period, possibly to
below normal values for the end of next weekend and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Should continue to trend towards prevailing MVFR conditions. Patchy
areas of IFR ceilings and drizzle currently exist across the area and
expect the potential to continue for a couple additional hours.
Otherwise, models suggest low-end MVFR to hold through the remainder
of the forecast period. Scattered showers will gradually increase
this evening, with a much better shot at rainfall reaching and
persisting at terminals after 09Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






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