Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152037

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Widespread cloud cover has helped keep temperatures down today, with
the exception of far southeastern sections of the forecast area. A
notable temperature gradient exists across the CWA, with upper 60s
in NW MO to the lower 80s in central MO. The cloud cover has helped
stabilize much of the area, with only modest elevated CAPE advecting
into the area. Light precipitation is expected across the area later
this afternoon into the evening hours as weak ascent from a wave
glances the area. The highest probability of thunderstorms will be
across the northeast quarter of the CWA, closest to the greatest
lift and instability. That said, storms are expected to remain below
severe levels, although brief gusty winds will be possible with any
storms that can translate the strong winds downward just off the
surface. Gradient wind speeds will remain gusty up to sunset before
speeds relax. Outside of precipitation concerns tonight will be fog
potential across northwest Missouri. As the cold front approaches
and stalls, winds will relax in this region with dewpoint
depressions approaching zero. Some uncertainty exists how much of
this will be in the form of stratus versus fog, but at the least,
patchy dense fog should be expected.

Well above normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as the
forecast area remains in the warm sector, with afternoon readings
residing mainly in the 80s. The initial stalled cold front pushes
through Tuesday, but all signs point to a dry frontal passage at
this time. Much cooler weather advects into the CWA by mid to late
week. High uncertainty exists in the extended with the evolution of
the next trough and the related impacts to the CWA, but the latest
trend is to place an extended period of widespread precipitation
just southeast of the CWA during the mid to late week time frame.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the period. Probability
for breaks in the clouds appear lower today. Scattered showers are
possible late this afternoon and early evening. Wind speeds will
remain gusty through the afternoon hours. May begin to see some
improvement by mid-morning Sunday.




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