Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200759
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Weak upper trough passing overhead is focusing most of the shower
activity to the east of the area early this morning across southern
and central/eastern MO. However, additional light showers may
redevelop further west across eastern KS/western MO through the
morning in response to a sheared vort max on the back side of the
trough and an area of upper divergence in the vicinity of a curved
jet max. This activity should gradually scatter out through the
early afternoon hours as the upper trough axis pushes toward the
Mississippi River. Any rainfall amounts today will be light -
generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Upper ridge will build into the Plains on Saturday, though low-level
flow will be slow to switch from easterly to southerly with low-level
ridging keeping a strong hold on the region. This will keep
temperatures a couple of degrees below average Friday night into
Saturday. Meanwhile a weak upper wave will round the upper ridge and
drop into the area Saturday and Saturday night. However, with
expansive low-level ridging in place, this feature will have to
battle quite a bit of dry air in place so precip chances do not look
overly impressive.

Upper ridge will slide overhead on Sunday and allow temperatures to
rise a bit into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As this feature slides
eastward, a strengthening low-level jet will feed increasing
moisture into the area Sunday night. This will the stage for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Monday as upper
flow becomes southwesterly and brings several impulses of energy into
the area. A steady increase in moisture and instability heading into
the middle of next week could set the stage for some stronger storms
and/or heavy rain, but much will depend on subtle details within
these embedded upper waves that won`t really be resolvable until
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Light rain showers have currently dissipated across the terminals,
but redevelopment of these showers is likely between a 8-10Z time
frame. However, VFR conditions are expected to continue with any rain
shower activity. Shower activity is expected to diminish by mid-
morning. A few light rain showers may develop after 18-21Z on the
backside of the trough. Winds will remain light and generally out of
the east to southeast through the period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...PMM



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