Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152337
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
537 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 218 PM CST WED NOV 15 2017

High pressure moving across the area tonight will keep things
clear/mostly clear and quiet overnight. The one potential concern
would be fog, given the light winds and clear skies. But a
significantly drier air mass will likely prevent much, if not all,
fog formation. The one exception may be in sheltered, low lying
areas in northern to northeastern MO. But really think that the air
mass will be too dry for fog formation.

Flow quickly turns southerly tomorrow and we should warm back up
close to normal with highs in the low to mid 50s. The next chance
for any precipitation should arrive Thursday night as moisture
starts to return to the region. This may initially be in the form of
drizzle due to a strong inversion above the saturated layer. But as
cold air aloft advects over the region, this inversion will erode,
saturation will deepen, and there may even be enough instability
build to lead to a few thunderstorms Friday evening. No severe
weather is expected with this activity as instability looks weak,
but enough there may be a few storms.

Model spread really starts to increase next week, and there is over
a 20 degree spread in surface temperatures for the middle of the
week and beyond. Looking at hemispheric 500 mb plots, this seems
to be a result of a difference in the handling of a low over the
eastern Pacific. The GFS deepens and cuts this low off between
Hawaii and Alaska. This dipping of the flow so far west allows for
chunk of cold air to slam south into the middle to eastern
portions of the CONUS. In contrast, the ECMWF keeps a more open
wave and progresses the wave further east. But there is stronger
ridging over the western half of the CONUS that blocks this cold
air from surging south through the middle of the country. The
Canadian model is about in the middle of these two so forecast is
closer to this solution.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST WED NOV 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected across the area for this period, as
surface high pressure settles in. As the high moves east, it will
veer winds, resulting in southeasterly winds by tomorrow
afternoon. MVFR visibilities are possible in the morning around
STJ. Very few models are hinting at this possibility, but very
light winds are forecast and the MO river temperature will be
about 20 degrees above air temperature so the potential is there.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Grana



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