Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 212321
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Pleasant late summer weather continues tonight and Monday as high
pressure slides across the area. Weak return southerly flow on the
back side of this feature will keep tonight`s temperatures a couple
of degrees warmer than last night, while highs on Monday rise into
the lower to middle 80s.

Moisture will be quick to return to the area on Tuesday when
dewpoints will return into the upper 60s and even lower 70s. This
will allow the airmass to destabilize by Tuesday afternoon with CAPE
values around 1000-2000 J/kg, setting the stage for scattered
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area during the afternoon
when a weak wave will pass to the north. Rain chances will continue
into Tuesday night and much of Wednesday before a cold front swings
through late Wednesday night. Precipitable water values will increase
to around 2 inches as the front approaches late Wednesday which
could allow for locally heavy rain. However the placement of the low-
level jet Tuesday night and Wednesday will likely put the heaviest
rainfall to our north across Iowa.

Models have trended slower with the movement of the front later this
week, keeping it stalled across the Ozarks Thursday then lifting it
back north Friday and Saturday. This will keep precipitation chances
going mainly across far southern portions of the forecast area
Thursday and then across much of the region Friday night and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Very light winds and clear skies are expected this evening through
the night, and although wind direction will be initially variable
over the next 3-6 hours, by 06z direction should settle out of the
south-southeast at speeds around or less than 5 kts. Winds will
increase out of the south-southwest by mid- to late-morning on
Monday, and isolated to scattered cumulus will redevelop at about
4-5 kft, keeping conditions VFR even if cloud coverage is higher
than expected.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Laflin



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