Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 271729
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015
Issued at 304 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
This forecast package will be characterized by dry conditions and
(perhaps record) warm temperatures in the short term. That will be
followed by a return to near normal temperatures for the end of the
week. Finally, there is the potential for a weekend winter snow
storm possible before clearing into the beginning of next week.
A ridge of high pressure over the Plains early this morning
will shift east into the area today. This will allow for sunny skies
but weak mixing to only about 925mb where temperatures range from
2C-6C. This will highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tonight, the
surface ridge will slide east of the area. A shortwave will begin to
round an upper level ridge over the Rockies forcing a cold front
into the Plains States. This, in turn, will tighten the pressure
gradient across the area as winds pick up from the south. This will
keep lows in the 30s. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves into
the region while at the surface continued WAA will be ongoing out
ahead of the cold front moving slowly across the Plains. 850 temps
of 12C-16C should yield highs in the upper 50s to near 70 across
west central Missouri and east central Kansas. The current record
high for the day is 65 set in 1917 at MCI where 67 is currently
being forecast. Wednesday night the aforementioned cold front will
be force through the area as the upper shortwave moves from the
central Plains into the local area. This will bring an abrupt end to
the warm conditions however, the frontal passage looks to remain dry
as the better moisture remain north of the area.
On Thursday, moderate CAA behind the cold front as well as northwest
flow aloft will make for cool and breezy conditions with highs in
the low to mid 40s which is still about 5 degrees above normal.
Northwest flow will relax on Friday but surface high pressure will
help keep temperatures next normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
The potential for a weekend storm has started to look a little more
possible over the past 24 hours as models have begun to merge on a
solution. This solution would take a deep upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS on Friday and move it eastward in the southern
Rockies by Saturday. As this occurs a fast moving shortwave diving
down from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains will merge
with the southern track system. This will bring a chance for rain
and snow to the area beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday.
Where model solutions differ as to where the best moisture with this
system will reside. The EC brings a better plume of moisture north
into the local area, however the GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensembles
keep the better moisture south of the area across southern Missouri
and Arkansas. As such have chance POPs going for Saturday into
Sunday with accumulating snow possible and highs in the low to mid
30s by Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end by Sunday night as
high pressure moves into area. High pressure will continue to reside
over the area on Monday as we experience some of the coldest high
temperatures we have experienced in some time with highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.