Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240453
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Tonight - Sunday:

Just one more day of this relentless heat and humidity...and that
will be for areas generally south of Highway 36. A large area of
relatively thick higher based mid and high level cloud cover will
continue to spread across the CWA this evening. This cloud cover
took some of the edge off the brutal heat/humidity for parts of west
central and northwest MO today. Heat headline for northern 1/3 of
the CWA will be allowed to expire at 8 pm.

Rain chances looking puny overnight. Water vapor satellite imagery
shows the deeper moisture plume has dried up some over the past 24
hours and dont see any visible indications of a shortwave coming out
of CO. That leaves the SD/NE cold front to try and generate
something. Progs and SPC mesoscale analysis shows plenty of CIN over
this region and while the cu field has increased considerably it is
rather flat. HRRR is only model which generates convection along the
front by 23Z and tracks it into the CWA overnight. The HRRR has been
overly generous with precipitation all season but can`t and wont
rule it out entirely. Will go with slight chance PoPs for now and
play the wait and see game.

Otherwise, will track the cold front into the CWA Sunday morning.
The unbearably hot and yuckies will remain ahead of the front with a
capped airmass until very late afternoon or early evening as noted
in the progged soundings. So, while there may be a narrow band of
surface based convection current thinking is better bet is scattered
post frontal/elevated convection will get going Sunday evening as a
shortwave trough rolls east through KS. Barring an outflow boundary
pushing the front south of the CWA it very well could stall over the
far southern counties Sunday night.

Monday through Saturday:

A relatively unsettled period with likely several instances of
scattered convection interspersed with several dry periods. Problem
is the primary mid/upper level circulation has a northwest flow
theme with numerous embedded/weak shortwaves traveling through the
NE/IA corridor making timing difficult. In addtion, a frontal
boundary will be close enough to warrant accepting the model blend
of carrying 30-50% PoPs in most periods, Tuesday being the lone dry
exception. Temperatures should be around seasonal values with high
humidity remaining in place.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

A few showers are developing across northeast KS/northwest MO but
are expected to remain isolated and weak. Any rain will be very
brief, 15 mins or less, and any lightning should be extremely
isolated if any at all. Better chance for scattered storms will
arrive Sunday evening as a cold front settles south into the area.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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