Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

A relatively dry air mass currently in place will slowly erode early
Tuesday morning as southerly return flow commences underneath a
weakening upper-level ridge. The ridge will undergo the weakening
trend as a deepening upper low situated across southern Canada
advances further east through Wednesday morning. Locally, this
will bring a return of low level moisture and above normal
temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat indices will
rise into the low 100s Tuesday and will approach 105 degrees
Wednesday, generally for areas along and south of the Missouri
River. This will likely warrant the issuance of a Heat Advisory
for Wednesday afternoon in subsequent updates.

Aside from the brief mid-week heat event, a return of widespread
precipitation looks to return to the area Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of and along a trailing cold front. Multiple
hazards are possible during the frontal passage, with the most
likely being in the form of strong to damaging winds, particularly
across north central to northeastern Missouri, within a
moderately unstable environment. Ample deep layer moisture is also
possible, which combined with parallel low level flow atop the
cold front, and PWAT values near 2.0 inches, may result in a flash
flood scenario. Antecedent conditions have improved across
northern Missouri recently, where higher precipitation totals are
expected Wednesday night. This will still bear monitoring heading
into Wednesday for both hydrologic and severe weather concerns.
For now, expect rainfall totals to range from half an inch to 1
inch across northern Missouri, with lesser amounts expected
further south. Higher amounts, in addition to localized flash
flooding, remain possible given the expected environmental
conditions leading into the event.

By late Thursday morning, storms should continue to exit the local
area as the front advances to the southeast. Should the boundary
begin to stall overnight, may see redeveloping storms Thursday
afternoon along the boundary, particularly for areas south of
Highway 50. Regardless, pleasant conditions await behind the
boundary as we head into the weekend. A multi-day period of below
normal temperatures are expected, along with dry conditions as a
broad surface ridge builds into the region.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

Surface high pressure to the northeast will maintain dry
conditions through the forecast period. Easterly winds will veer
slightly Tuesday morning as high pressure pushes eastward. Shallow
fog may develop over the terminal sites early Tuesday morning,
though increasing surface winds during this time may minimize this
to some extent.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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