Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Issued at 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Weak upper trough passing overhead is focusing most of the shower
activity to the east of the area early this morning across southern
and central/eastern MO. However, additional light showers may
redevelop further west across eastern KS/western MO through the
morning in response to a sheared vort max on the back side of the
trough and an area of upper divergence in the vicinity of a curved
jet max. This activity should gradually scatter out through the
early afternoon hours as the upper trough axis pushes toward the
Mississippi River. Any rainfall amounts today will be light -
generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Upper ridge will build into the Plains on Saturday, though low-level
flow will be slow to switch from easterly to southerly with low-level
ridging keeping a strong hold on the region. This will keep
temperatures a couple of degrees below average Friday night into
Saturday. Meanwhile a weak upper wave will round the upper ridge and
drop into the area Saturday and Saturday night. However, with
expansive low-level ridging in place, this feature will have to
battle quite a bit of dry air in place so precip chances do not look
overly impressive.

Upper ridge will slide overhead on Sunday and allow temperatures to
rise a bit into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As this feature slides
eastward, a strengthening low-level jet will feed increasing
moisture into the area Sunday night. This will the stage for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Monday as upper
flow becomes southwesterly and brings several impulses of energy into
the area. A steady increase in moisture and instability heading into
the middle of next week could set the stage for some stronger storms
and/or heavy rain, but much will depend on subtle details within
these embedded upper waves that won`t really be resolvable until
early next week.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Scattered showers, generally very light, will drift across the area
for a few more hours before scattering out later this morning.
Conditions should remain VFR for the most part, although MVFR
ceilings just to the west across eastern/central KS could briefly
spread into western Missouri this morning. IFR activity should remain
to the west.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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