Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 121823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
123 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 209 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2017

The remnants of Irma have crept into extreme southeastern Missouri
as of early Tuesday and will continue to slowly advect northwestward
through the afternoon. Precipitation will remain far outside the
local area, though associated upper level clouds have already
filtered in across southwestern to north central Missouri and will
linger in place as the system begins to stall as a cut off low.
For today, this will present a slight thermal gradient for
afternoon highs as northwest Missouri rises into the mid 80s and
central Missouri into the upper 70s. The cutoff low will be
absorbed back into the main flow aloft Wednesday, ushering in a
mid-week ridging pattern overhead. This will bring a temporary
period of above-normal temperatures until the late weekend.

Rain totals thus far in September are generally 1.5 to 2 inches
below normal across the area, and the lack of measurable rainfall
this month may come to an end this weekend. An active upper-level
pattern over the Northern Plains may help to provide sufficient
surface forcing and moisture supply ahead of a cold front for
widespread precipitation late in the weekend. Though signals for
deep layer moisture are lacking at the moment, ongoing tropical
activity across the Eastern Pacific may provide supplemental
moisture to increase rainfall totals as activity develops late in
the weekend. Also seeing signals of relatively active pattern by
the mid-week, which may provide additional much needed rain
across the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2017

High cloud remnants from IRMA will move through the area today
with a NE wind 5-10kts. VFR conditions will persist for the
majority of the area but some MVFR visibilities may develop near
the Missouri River and KSJT near sunrise. After the high clouds
move off overnight, clear skies and light variable winds will
remain through the rest of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Barham



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