Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201702
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

Quiet weather is still the main story for the forecast area as we go
into a new work week. Coming off of the record or near-record high
temperatures on Sunday a surface ridge will take form over the
northern and central plains, and nose into the lower Missouri River
Valley through the day on Sunday. This ridge will usher in some
cooler temperatures into the area; however, temperatures will still
remain well above normal for the day as highs will be in the upper
40s to middle 50s. With steady NW surface flow into the area
temperatures through the week will correct back toward normal, as
Wed/Thurs highs will be in the 40s. Tuesday could bring a slight
chance for some very light sprinkles across SE Kansas and SW
Missouri. Generally expect the bulk of any showery activity to
remain south of the forecast area, but there could also be a few
random sprinkles, mainly across the far southern part of the
forecast area. With the best area of saturation residing in the mid
levels of the atmosphere it`s unlikely that any precipitation that
forms this afternoon/evening will be able to survive the low level
dry air to bring any measurable precipitation.

The next weather making system of any note could move through the
area on Saturday night and Sunday. Models have been very consistent
regarding a trough digging southward out of Saskatchewan, through
the northern plains, and into northern Missouri. While this trough
looks to be the best chance to get any measurable precipitation into
the forecast area there is no reason as of yet to think it`ll bring
any kind of impactful weather. With daytime highs on Sunday expected
to be in the 40s it`s likely that any precipitation will fall as
rain, although there could be some snow mixed in as the colder air
filters into the area behind the trough. By Sunday night any
lingering precipitation could fall as some light snow, once enough
cold air works its way south to adequately cool off the atmospheric
profile. While there is still quite a bit of time for this system
become more substantial, at this time it does not appear to be a
much noteworthy system. Other than the chance for some light
sprinkles on Tuesday and the Sunday trough, the forecast period
looks to be uneventful.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Mid-level cloud cover
should begin to thin out this evening as winds continue out of the
west to northwest. Nearby precipitation will likely remain to the
south, but a random sprinkle or two is possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Welsh





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