Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182103
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Afternoon/Tonight: Radar reflectivity echoes have rapidly diminished
over the past few hours as precipitation in the form of light snow
has dissipated. Outside of a few pockets of flurries or light
drizzle, do not expect any additional precipitation nor accumulation
through this evening. Low stratus has remain locked into place
across the region and do not expect that to change through the
night. Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing, but only into
the middle 20s to lower 30s in part thanks to the cloud cover and
negligible cold air advection in the wake of the system. Could be
patchy black ice as liquid refreezes late tonight on secondary
roadways that remained untreated or infrequently traveled, but
overall impacts should be low. Otherwise, will also monitor
potential for patchy fog, and with the lowest 3kft saturated with a
period of weak ascent, could see perhaps a few patchy areas of
freezing drizzle as ice does not look to be introduced into the
column for flurries. The probability of light freezing drizzle is
fairly low and will not mention in forecast at this time, and any
that does occur is not expected to have an impact.

Friday through Monday Night: A gradual warming trend will begin
tomorrow and continue through Monday. Models are in general
agreement during the period. On Friday, a quick-moving upper system
will move from Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with all notable
weather remaining well to the south of the forecast area. The upper
pattern will deamplify and flatten in its wake, with warming H85
temperatures. The upper pattern over the central CONUS will once
again transition early next week, with a large positively-tilted to
neutrally-tilted upper trough evolving as a series of disturbances
ride southeastward across the region. Dry weather is expected on
Friday into Saturday, with increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases and deep ascent
overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected to be in the from of
rain as all the lowest 6kft will remain above 0C within the warm
sector. A cold front is projected to move through the forecast area
on Monday afternoon, ushering in cooler air and bringing an end to
the most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some
post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and some
of this may be in the form of light snow in northern Missouri, with
little to no accumulation anticipated at this time. As for
temperatures, readings will climb each day from the 30s on Friday to
the warmest temperatures in the next 7 days on Monday with highs in
the middle to upper 40s.

Extended: Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near
seasonal averages for this time of year. Outside of the remnant
post-frontal precipitation on Tuesday described above, the forecast
is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Much of the
model guidance is in surprisingly good agreement by the end of the
forecast period that features a strong upper disturbance diving into
the central High Plains on Thursday. It is too early to determine
what type, if any, of appreciable weather can be expected from this
system for the Christmas timeframe, but a colder shot of air may be
in the works.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair





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