Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

Quiet and uneventful weather continues to dominate the forecast as
we go through the rest of the week, and into the weekend. Steady
light NW surface winds will continue to usher in cooler air into the
forecast area, resulting in gradually but steadily declining
temperatures for at least Wednesday and Thursday. For Friday the
surface ridge will move off to the east and southerly surface flow
will commence, albeit rather light. In the wake of a mid level low
that will bring a decent amount of snow to the TX Panhandle region,
warmer 850 mb temperatures will adorn the area for Friday. With the
S/SW surface flow and the slightly warmer H85 temps max temperatures
on Friday will rebound a bit from the cool down for the first half
of the week. Expecting temps to climb back into the 40s to lower 50s
for Friday. Despite a surface wind shift to the north on Friday
night, cold air advection is not anticipated at the surface, so will
keep temperatures steady through Saturday before Sunday`s potential
winter system.

Sunday, appears to bring the only appreciable chance for any kind of
precipitation in this forecast package. That being said, models seem
to be hinting that the system, originating from Saskatchewan could
glide east of the KC metro and affect only portions of the forecast
area east of I-35. Sunday`s max temperature could be tricky to pin
point this far out, since most recent GFS paints a more progressive
cold front, with sub zero H85 temperatures and NW surface flow
moving in by 12z on Sunday. Should that solution occur a fairly
dramatic drop to Sunday`s highs will be in order. ECMWF solution is
much different with a more neutral-temp advection wind shift moving
through Saturday night, with little effect on Sunday`s temperatures.
Given the uncertainty with what type of atmosphere this trough will
be working with, kept chances for a rain/snow mix going for Saturday
night through Sunday, with waning chances for precipitation Sunday
night. The best chance for any snow would likely be east of I-35,
and during the overnight hours on Sunday night for any lingering
precip that should occur once the cooler air arrives.

Thereafter, little change in the mid level flow is anticipated as
the west coast ridge stays firmly in place, providing the central
plains and the Lower Missouri River Valley with strong NW flow
aloft. Forecast temperatures will be quite a bit above normal, with
40s and 50s going for the extended temperature forecast through next
Mon-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. This afternoon
winds will pick up out of the NW to around 10 to 20 kts, then relax
around sunset. Some low clouds will also be possible later tonight,
but BKN/OVC coverage looks unlikely at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







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