Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200853
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 353 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Now for a break from the summer heat. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a large trough centered across the Hudson Bay to our
north, with an axis extending south into the Plains States. A potent
shortwave trough dived under the larger Canadian circulation over
the past 24 hours, which in turn shoved a front through our section
of Kansas and Missouri Friday along with a bit of rain. As of this
writing, the frontal boundary looks to have mostly cleared our
forecast area as the associated thunderstorms shifted east. And,
while a few showers may linger into the sunny hours of Saturday
morning, the overall trend for today will see clearing skies and very
pleasant conditions for late August.

Rest of the weekend will be dominated by rather nice conditions
--below normal temperatures with humidity values drying out-- as a
bit of cool Canadian air filters south across the Plains States
behind the frontal boundary that moved through overnight. This will
likely limit today`s high`s to the mid and upper 70s across the
region with 50s for overnight lows. However, the cool temperatures
will quickly begin to moderate back up --into the 80s-- as we head
into the work week. However, examination of mid range model
solutions indicate that there wont be much of a ridge following the
trough across the Nation in the coming work week; so temperatures,
while moderating back up, should range through the 80s Monday
through Wednesday. Then, another significant trough will move across
the Canadian Plains, sweeping another frontal boundary through the
region, likely bringing the return of storm chances Tuesday through
Wednesday, with high temperatures falling back into the 70s for the
tail end of the work week as more cool air filters south.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Patches of MVFR stratus have begun to expand on the back side of the
cold front currently advancing through the area, and may impact all
TAF sites between 06z and approximately 10z. It is possible that the
stratus could be more persistent than currently forecast, so will
continue to monitor conditions and amend as necessary. Winds will be
a bit variable in direction along the front over the next 1-2 hours,
then will be steadier in direction out of the northwest for the early
morning hours through the remainder of the TAF period. Stratus will
eventually mix out by mid Saturday morning, and will remain VFR
through the rest of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin


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