Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200822

322 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period with only few to scattered
high level clouds. Winds will increase from the south this afternoon
and then diminish some overnight. Winds should be in the 12 to 15 kt
range with gusts around 20kts.




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