Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

Surface ridge has moved its way into the area through the afternoon
hours, and this has sufficiently brought enough subsidence and dryer
air to the area to slowly erode the seemingly everlasting stratus
deck this early afternoon from west to east. As the axis of the
ridge moves eastward through the evening and overnight hours winds
will respond out of the south. As this surface ridge moves eastward
the pressure gradient between the western periphery of the ridge and
the deepening surface low over the High Plains will strengthen and
cause winds to respond by increasing to around 10 to 20 mph for
Saturday. This will set the stage for the next round of marginally
impactful weather late this weekend. Shortwave mid level ridging
will take place for Saturday, which in conjunction with the mixed
lower atmosphere could bring temperatures in the upper 50s to
perhaps lower 60s. By Sunday the pressure gradient east of the
surface low will become rather tight, which will cause breezy
conditions through the day on Sunday. Surface winds should be in the
15 to 25 mph range due to the strong surface pressure gradient.
Along with the strong southerly winds will be a decent amount of
warm/moist air advection which should provide an upstream trough
with at least some moisture to make precipitation with.  Early
Sunday morning and most of the day thereafter should be
characterized as cloudy, as the low level moisture streams into the
area. While H85 winds will likely be around 40 to 50 knots, perhaps
slightly higher than that, the low level cloud cover should mitigate
deep enough mixing to get the strong 40+ mph winds to the surface on
Sunday. That being said, it`s still conceivable to see gusts
approach 30 to 40 mph on Sunday. While the moisture streams into the
area there could be some morning and afternoon drizzle or light rain
as forecast soundings indicate very little mid level moisture, very
little initial instability, and only marginal lift associate with
the glancing blow of the mid level wave. In fact warming
temperatures with height should keep the cloud bearing layer rather
thin at least through the first part of the day on Sunday, which
would lend more to drizzle or perhaps very light rain, as opposed to
accumulating rain. By the mid afternoon to evening hours more lower
to mid level moisture will work its way into the area to bring some
very very minor instability. This could introduce the potential for
a few rumbles of thunder, but given the low level temperature
profile and the very limited instability, the potential for any
strong/severe storms is virtually NIL. The highest accumulation from
this rain will likely occur north of the Missouri River, even more
toward the MO/IA border.

The precipitation on Sunday night should be pretty progressive
considering the elevated nature of the showers as well as the strong
low to mid level flow. Expect only a few hundredths of an inch of
rain south of I-70/Mo River and perhaps around a quarter to half
inch toward the Iowa/Missouri border. In the wake of the departing
trough a cold front will zip into the area, bringing a dip to the
temperatures through mid week. Expect lows in the 20s/30s for
Wed/Thu, with highs in the 40s and 50s with dry conditions through
the extended forecast. in the deep extended forecast models continue
to point toward a deep mid level low that carves its way into the
flow over the desert southwest, then cuts off. This may be the next
feature to watch as we go into next weekend as it remains well
southwest of the area and could eject with the next kicker trough to
move in down the road.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception of
periodic overnight fog at STJ. This potential may linger until
sunrise, though generally thinking that increasing winds after 10Z
will help to mitigate fog formation as surface ridge over southern
Missouri continues to push eastward. Elsewhere, main impact tomorrow
will be increased southerly winds beginning in the mid morning
through sunset. Given a notable capping inversion as warm air advects
into the region from the southwest, will hold off on mentioning gusts
in the forecast as these should remain at or below 20 kts during peak
heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Welsh



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