Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 101736

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Issued at 311 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2017

The persistent upper level pattern of ridging across the western
CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Region
will continue through Thursday. This will keep the area under dry
northwest flow aloft. The main forecast challenge will be
temperatures as several reinforcing shortwaves rounding the upper
level trough to the east will force attendant cold fronts through
the area. A weak cold front will drop through the area this
afternoon however temperatures will rise into the mid 40s to mid
50s before it does. With no cold air behind the front temperatures
will remain above normal on Monday with highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s even as another cold front moves through the area.
Conditions will be breezy on Monday and with recent dry
conditions, this will lead to an elevated fore danger. Canadian
surface high pressure builds into the area Monday night into
Tuesday and that will return temperatures to near normal with
highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday, another cold front
will push through the area during the afternoon. High temperatures
will range from the lower 40s across the northeastern CWA to the
mid 50s across the southwestern CWA. There will be a slight chance
for light snow changing to light rain over the northeastern CWA
on Wednesday morning ahead of the front. CAA will filter in behind
the front on Wednesday night setting up a cooler day on Thursday
as high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the upper
30s to mid 40s. Models also try and produce light precipitation on
Thursday however conditions look too dry to support it.

Friday we finally begin to see the upper level pattern break down as
a upper level shortwave flattens out the western ridge. This will
lead to a more zonal type upper level flow and consequently, warmer
temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday
and Saturday. The initialization loaded a chance for slight chance
to chance POPs across the northern CWA on Saturday however, those
appear to be an artifact of the 12Z runs. The 00Z GFS and EC keep
the offending shortwave north of the region and thusly the
precipitation north of the CWA.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2017

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through this TAF period at
all of the terminals. Biggest impact to aviation interests will
be the increasing winds by tomorrow morning, becoming rather
breezy and out of the NW by midday.




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