Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

For the remainder of the afternoon, temperatures will once again
rise into the lower 90s across the area as steady warm advection
continues. Dew point values have risen into the lower to mid 70s,
making for heat indices near the 100 degree mark for areas across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Fortunately, this transpired
only recently as subsidence in the wake of early morning
convection helped to temporarily scour out at least some of the
low-level moisture content this morning.

Aside from the heat, the main impact in the short-term will come in
the form of additional thunderstorm activity approaching eastern
Kansas and western Missouri near sunset this evening. Convection has
recently formed across central Kansas near leeside surface low
pressure underneath increasing 850 hPa wind fields within a
very unstable air mass. Additional storms are expected to fire
across central Kansas, eventually forming an MCS by this evening.
This cluster of activity will then push ESE with time, arriving
into eastern Kansas near sunset. With the loss of convergence,
diurnal heating, and decreasing 850 hPa winds, storms are
expected to generally weaken as they approach the CWA. With that
said, an elevated highly unstable air mass will remain over the
area, coupled with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Thus,
despite the overall weakening storm trend, the environment will
still support large hail and damaging winds for eastern Kansas and
western Missouri this evening. Storms will then continue to
weaken before arriving into central Missouri, and should clear
east of the local area by early Friday morning.

Friday`s setup will be very similar to Thursday. The warm sector
will remain over the region as high temperatures approach the low
90s. Dry conditions are expected through much of the day in the wake
of dissipating storms early Friday morning. Another progged MCS will
then develop upstream Friday evening, this one being formed over
southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Near-zonal flow aloft
will become northwesterly, which should direct storms over northwest
to north central Missouri Friday night. Once again anticipating
potential large hail and strong winds Friday night into Saturday
morning for areas particularly north of Highway 36, though this
potential may continue well into central Missouri depending on how
storms progress southward into Saturday morning.

Dew point values will continue to increase Saturday, eventually
rising into the mid 70s for areas south of the Missouri River. The
prolonged duration of the resulting increased heat indices near
criteria values may warrant a Heat Advisory for Saturday
afternoon, especially in light of weekend activities. Another
round of thunderstorms are then expected to form along a cold
front Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upstream boundary
finally receives enough of a push to advance through the local
area. Ample convergence along the front, increasing wind fields
aloft ahead of a deepening upper-level trough to the north, and
the existing unstable environment may support the best chance of
widespread severe potential locally throughout this multi-day
event. Widespread rain along the front is also anticipated,
though the progressive nature of the front should limit rainfall
amounts to generally half an inch or less.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will then follow early Sunday
and Monday as a surface ridge advances into the area. The pattern
will then become active once again by the mid-week as southerly
flow returns to the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

Gusty southwest winds are a very near-term concern as a wake low
moves through the KC area; however, winds should die down once
this feature moves through and will return back to the SSW at 10
kts or less by 08z-09z. Midlevel clouds based above 6-10 kft will
drift off to the southeast over the next few hours, and while a
few passing showers or perhaps a rogue lightning strike are both
possible through 08z, primarily VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin



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