Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 191703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2017

Northwest flow prevailing over the region this morning as a closed
low spins south of Hudson Bay and upper ridging builds across the
American West. Latest water vapor imagery showing a host of weak
shortwave disturbances embedded within this flow, which combined
with weak 850-700 moisture convergence across northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska, is leading to light precip development across
the Central Plains this morning. Based on latest radar trends,
have included a morning sprinkle mention for the western third of
the fcst area. Moving on to later today, models continue to show
main shortwave trough passing off to our northeast by this
afternoon, with various solutions offering light QPF across our
region during peak heating. Considering much if not our entire
area will be on the backside of the departing wave, not overly
confident on the chances for measurable precipitation later today
based on weak synoptic forcing. BUFKIT soundings from across the
region also highlight a fairly dry low-level airmass, with just
enough shallow midlevel moisture to get isolated shwrs going if
we`re lucky. In any event, have maintained slgt chc pops across
the far northeast where slightly better forcing will exist.

Warm air advection to become better established across the region
on Tuesday as surface high pressure slides off to our southeast.
As this occurs, high pressure building into the upper Midwest will
send a weak frontal boundary south towards our area, with latest
model runs suggesting possible precip development by Tuesday
afternoon. Despite decent shear values aloft, area fcst soundings
show weak instability which may be enough to limit severe wx
concerns. Exact placement of frontal boundary by late afternoon
remains in question with the NAM currently the furthest southward
solution. In any event, have increased pops to slgt chc as far
south as the I-70 corridor for now. Tuesday will definitely be
warmer with upper 80s returning to much of the area.

Aforementioned boundary to lift back north as a warm front early
Wednesday morning with even warmer conditions expected by
afternoon as region becomes entrenched in a warm sector airmass.
Northern stream energy passing along the U.S./Canadian border will
help send a cold front south towards our area Wednesday night and
Thursday. Its possible models are overdoing the QPF as surface
ridging extending from the Ozarks into the Arklatex region just
north of the land falling tropical system across the western Gulf
may limit moisture return further north into our area.

Beyond this, precip chances look to increase as we head into
Friday/early Saturday as moisture laden outflow from decaying
tropical feature across the Deep South begins to interact with a
stalled surface boundary across our area. This looks to be
short lived however as high pressure building into the upper
Midwest once again should eventually send the front south sometime
on Saturday. If this occurs as advertised, an eventual drying
trend along with below normal temperatures should be in store for
the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal cumulus
develop is expected this afternoon with scattered bases of 7000 to
8000 feet. Westerly winds will diminish this evening and then
remain light into tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...CDB



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