Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181706

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

Issued at 304 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The main concern in the short term will revolve around the potential
for severe weather Friday evening/night. However, in the interim
conditions will remain very warm today. Conditions will be similar
to yesterday with perhaps slightly deeper mixing and 850
temperatures a bit warmer. Consequently, this should yield highs a
degree or so warmer then yesterday. Expect highs ranging from around
90 to the mid 90s. Upper level flow across the CONUS is currently
split with a weak southern track transporting moisture from the
Pacific across the southern plains and lower Mississippi River
Valley. This moisture fetch coupled with a few weak disturbances in
the upper flow will bring the chance for thunderstorm to the region
tonight. Models are depicting that the best chance for storms will
be south of the area however, the southern CWA could experience a
storm overnight. Friday, the main feature of interest in the form of
a upper level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains. A lead shortwave trough is expected to move through
the area on the day Friday. There is potential for scattered
thunderstorms during the day associated with this lead shortwave
although it is believed weak capping should limit that potential.
Consequently, have slight chance to low end chance POPs in during
the day Friday. By Friday afternoon, the upper level trough is
expected to move into the northern Plains with an attendant cold
front extending from the Upper Midwest southwestward into central
Kansas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along this cold front
during the afternoon north and west of the area. These storms are
expected to develop into an MCS and move toward northwestern
Missouri during the late evening. The severity of the storms may be
contingent on what time storms reach the area. If storms reach the
area in the late evening, modest instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of
CAPE will be available for these storms. However, if storms hold off
until Friday night, instability will be quickly waning at that time.
If storms, can maximize the instability the main threat will be
damaging winds. Also, of concern may be the flash flooding threat as
storms will be very efficient as evidenced by PWAT values between
1.75"-2.00". Luckily, the upper trough will continue to dig Friday
night which should continue to help push the front southward and
limit training. The front is expected to exit the area by Saturday
morning with precipitation ending across the area by early saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal on
Saturday behind the front with highs in the mid 70s. Surface high
pressure is expected to build into the area Saturday night leading
to the coolest lows we have experiences since early June with lows
in the mid 50s.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended range will begin with very comfortable conditions for
late August standards. Surface high pressure and upper level
northwest flow across the area on Sunday will keep highs in the 70s.
Surface high pressure shifts east of the area Monday with a return
to southerly flow allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Tuesday, shortwave ridging will build into the area in
response to a shortwave trough digging into the western High Plains.
This will allow highs to rise into the lower 80s. Late Tuesday into
Wednesday the aforementioned upper level shortwave will bring the
next chance for storms to the area.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening hours
with winds remaining generally southerly. Patchy fog is possible in
the early morning Friday, though should only persist for a couple of
hours. Low level stratus expected to approach from the south may
limit development, depending on the timing of arrival Friday morning.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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