Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing across eastern
Kansas early this morning along an area of isentropic ascent visible
on the 300K-305K surfaces. This isentropic ascent is expected to
further increase through sunrise before weakening during the morning
hours. Consequently, have slight chance POPs through the morning
into the early afternoon. Also of concern this morning is the dense
fog reducing visibilities to less than a quarter of a mile in some
locations. This fog should dissipate from west to east this morning
as the aforementioned showers an thunderstorms move from west to
east. Conditions should dry out this afternoon and skies will clear
out helping temperatures rise into the mid 80s. Tonight a upper
level trough will move from the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian
Plains. This will force a cold front into the area by tomorrow
morning. With the much better forcing well north, in the vicinity of
the upper level system in Canada, and meager moisture, this front
should remain inactive most of the day. However, models are
consistent developing convection along this slowly sagging front
during the evening hours on Wednesday. This will be due to an
increase of moisture under southerly flow as well as a increase in a
weak southwesterly LLJ. Conditions do not necessarily suggest
organized severe storms however, instability may be enough for a
strong to isolated severe storm capable of damaging winds or large
hail. These storm are expected to persist through the overnight
hours into the morning hours of Thursday when the LLJ finally weakens.

On the day Thursday a upper level ridge extending from the eastern
Great Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and into
the Lower Mississippi River Valley will begin the retrograde slowly
westward. This will put the local area under the influence of the
ridge. This will keep conditions dry and warm from Thursday through
most of the weekend. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s. A strong
upper level trough will move from the Inter-Mountain West to the
Eastern Rockies over the weekend. This will force a cold front into
the Plains on Sunday. Some warm air advection showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday into Sunday night
although most of the forecast area will remain dry. Monday the upper
level ridge over the area will shift east in response to the
upstream upper level trough moving into the northern Plains. This
will force a cold front into the area bringing the next chance for
storms.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Satellite imagery and surface observations show fog and low
ceilings developing and spreading westward into the terminals.
This will likely bring IFR conditions to the area within an hour
or two. The other item of concern is an area of alto cumulus
developing in central KS. This may become an area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms that will move into the terminals around
sunrise tomorrow. Have adjusted the forecast to account for these
quickly changing trends. It still looks like by this afternoon
that winds will increase out of the south from 15kts sustained
with gusts around 25 kts. It also looks like these winds will
persist into the overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ002>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...CDB



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