Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Record cold is upon us as temperatures have dipped into the mid
single digits to lower teens this morning. The record low for MCI of
14 set in 1903 was already shattered at midnight when the temp was
10 degrees and temps continue to fall. The good news is temps will
moderate, somewhat, through the short term although, they will still
remain well below average.

A highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS with upper
level troughing over much of the eastern CONUS and upper level
ridging over the western CONUS is leaving the local area under
strong northwest flow aloft. This will continue to be the case today
keeping conditions cold. A ridge of surface high pressure resides
over the Plains early this morning. This ridge will continue to
slide south of the forecast area today. Meanwhile, a reinforcing
upper level shortwave rounding the Hudson Bay trough will sink
southward through the Canadian Plains. This will send a cold front
into the Plains today. Winds will increase today out of the
southwest on the back side of the departing surface high and ahead
of the approaching cold front. Despite the record cold start to the
day and strong northwest flow aloft, southwest winds should allow
temperatures to rebound a bit today with highs in the mid 20s to mid
30s. Have gone with a non-diurnal temperatures curve for tonight as
winds will drop off this evening and then increase late tonight out
ahead of the approaching cold front as clouds also increase. Lows in
the upper teens to mid 20s will most likely occur before midnight
and then rise over night. The aforementioned cold front will then
push through the area early Wednesday morning. Cold air advecting
behind the front will again keep temperatures well below average on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Wednesday night
high pressure will build into the forecast area with temperatures
dropping into the mid teens to lower 20s. Thursday, the upper level
pattern begins to flatten out across the CONUS and northwest flow
aloft begins to relax across the region. This will allow highs to
rise back into the lower 30s to lower 40s. This is still 10 to 15
degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM  CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday Night)

Major pattern shift to occur over the Lower 48 during the period as
long wave trough finally works off the East Coast and progressive
split zonal flow returns in its wake. This will finally allow some
relief from the record breaking cold that has gripped much of the
Nation in recent days. Warm air advection expected to get underway
on Friday as strong high pressure over the American Southeast
finally tracks east and southerly return flow kicks back in across
the Plains and Miss Rvr Vly. As this occurs...models in great
agreement that light warm advection precip will begin working into
the area during the day on Friday. As a result...have insert slgt
chc to chc pops during the day. Following this...main attention
turns to the southwest as southern stream trough ejects from the
southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As upper feature
approaches...fcst models agree that sfc low development will occur
over the Lone Star State with increased southerly flow expected
downstream over the Lwr Miss Rvr Vly. This will allow even warmer
air to return north over our region out in advance of the low as it
begins in northeastward journey up the I-44 corridor. Models show
increasing chances for rain for both Saturday and Sunday as sfc low
approaches. With fairly decent dynamics aloft thanks to secondary
shortwave energy which will be arriving from the central Plains and
favorable positioning under a strengthening jetstreak...confidence
is increasing that light to moderate rains will occur over the
weekend with the greatest likelihood east of the route 65 corridor.
By Sunday night...models agree sfc low will track northeast of the
area where it will eventually consolidate with another low over the
western Great Lakes/upper Midwest. This will ultimately delay the
arrival of the truly cold air until later Monday when secondary cold
front finally passes. For now...have delayed RA/SN mention until far
latter stages of the fcst period based on latest available model
trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Expect clear
skies this morning with just a few-sct high clouds filtering into the
terminals this afternoon and evening. Tonight a cold front will
approach the terminals and southwest winds btn 7-12kts will veer to
the west with a bkn deck around 10kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...73






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