Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 010457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

The upper level ridge positioned across the western half of the
CONUS has kept the local region under northwest flow aloft. This has
allowed for another hazy day as smoke from Canadian wildfires has
spread down into the North and Central Plains. Additional CCN has
likely allowed the cirrus deck to become a bit thicker than it might
have under normal circumstances, keeping temperatures a bit cooler
across much of the CWA this afternoon.

A more active period of weather will begin tonight with several
rounds of convective activity expected through the remainder of the
week as multiple disturbances round the ridge. For tonight...initial
activity will begin as scattered showers and thunderstorms as
isentropic lift increases across the region near a weak front moving
into the CWA. A shortwave trough will be rounding the ridge and will
approach the region overnight. This will kick off an area of
thunderstorms across Nebraska which will congeal and move southward
towards northwest Missouri. This large thunderstorm complex will
move down out of Nebraska overnight and be the primary concern for
heavy rain for portions of central Missouri. PWAT values of 1.5 to
2.5 inches will allow any convection to be capable of heavy rainfall
and could quickly lead to flooding issues over central Missouri. The
850 nocturnal jet will develop over Kansas overnight with the nose
nudging into western Missouri. In addition, the front will settle
across central Missouri with shear vectors progged to be normal to
the convective line. Bulk shear values of 35-45 kts will allow for
bowing segments to develop along the convection line which may be
capable of strong, damaging winds. The expected MCS will likely dive
southward behind the front and then take a slight easterly turn as
it nears the frontal boundary. Given the above conditions, a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued for tonight through Thursday morning for
expected precipitation.

Outflow from overnight convection will help enhance the boundary and
will be the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon and evening across southeastern portion of the
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

The same trends are expected to continue through the extended with
the region under deep layer northwest flow allowing for the passage
of multiple low amplitude shortwave troughs. This would result in
continued precip chances each day and evening. The latest GFS
indicates perhaps a gradual warming trend in the far extended portion
of the fcst as mid-level heights slowly rise due to a slight eastern
expansion of the western CONUS ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the terminals by TAF
issuance. These storms extend back into eastern Nebraska and will
cont to drop SE into the terminals thru the overnight hours.
Generally light thundershowers are expected occasionally reducing
vsbys to 5SM however there may be a pd btn 07Z-09Z of heavier rain
where vsbys may be reduced to 3SM. Otrw...cigs will remain VFR with
cigs around 5kft expected in storms. This round of storms will come
to an end by 11Z- 13Z. Conds should then remain VFR and dry thru the
remainder of the TAF cycle altho a low level jet is expected to
increase tomorrow afternoon which may spark another round of
thunderstorms at the terminals around 21Z-22Z however, the main focus
to the low level jet should be south of the terminals. However, to
account for the potential for thunderstorms around the terminals have
included a VCTS from 22Z-02Z (with the exception of STJ which should
remain dry). Winds around 10kts are out of the ESE tonight but will
veer to the SSE by morning before backing to the east again by the
evening hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
     038>040-044>046-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73





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