Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2017

Spring has finally made a return after a prolonged cold snap and it
looks like it is here to stay for a while. Temperatures this
afternoon have risen into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight, a
cold front will move through the area with increasing clouds out
ahead of it. This will keep temperatures mild tonight with lows in
the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. Although there is very
little lift with this front, isentropic ascent on the 300K surface
may be strong enough for some drizzle or light rain generally
along and south of the I-70 corridor during the morning hours. The
front should quickly move through the area tomorrow morning
bringing a return to sunny skies in the afternoon and temperatures
rising into the 60s to near 70. surface high pressure builds into
the region Friday night into Saturday. This will allow
temperatures to fall back into the 30s Friday night. Weak mixing
on Saturday will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid
60s despite upper level ridging building into the region. Sunday,
surface high pressure shifts eastward ushering in strong WAA in
its wake. Aloft the upper level ridge axis will move directly
overhead making for a very warm day with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s. The next for precipitation will come Sunday night into
Monday as an upper level shortwave moves from the northern plains
into the Upper Midwest force an attendant cold front into the
forecast area. Shear is weak with this system but CAPE of
500-1000J/kg suggests a few thunderstorms are possible. This front
is expected to push through the area by Monday afternoon however
will little cold air behind the front high temperatures are still
expected to achieve the 60s. High pressure then builds back into
the area Monday night into Tuesday returning highs to near normal
in the 50s. Wednesday, an upper level trough will dig into
southern Rockies. gulf moisture will spread north ahead of this
system bringing the chance for warm air advection shower on
Wednesday. The upper trough moves out of the southern Rockies into
the Central Plains forcing a cold front towards the area and
bringing the next chance for organized thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2017

VFR conditions this evening will give way to MVFR cigs overnight
as low-level moisture continues to surge northward. Some potential
exists for IFR shortly after the 06z time frame, however would
like to monitor trends before going down that road. Otherwise,
expect improvements back to VFR expected shortly after 12z as
drier air works in following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...32



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