Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 192348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016
Issued at 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016
Short Term (Today - Sunday night):
The main concern in the short term is the potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening into tonight. The main threat with these
storms will be the potential for damaging winds and flash flooding.
Storms have begun to initiate along the cold front from southwestern
Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and further southwest into central
Kansas. These storms are expect to develop into a linear MCS and
move into the area this evening. Sufficient instability of 1500-
2500J/kg of CAPE will be available with these storms however, 0-6km
shear continues to be relatively weak between 20-30kts.
Consequently, their is the potential, particularly this evening,
with the potential for damaging winds with this line of storms.
Instability as we move into the night time hours will quickly wane
so severe potential will diminish as well. These storms will also be
effective rain producers as PWAT values hover right around 2 inches
however, storms are not expected to train and should push relatively
quickly to the southeast. So, the potential for flash flooding is
low but because heavy rain is likely it can not completely be ruled
out. After midnight, severe potential will have ended however,
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. The front will have cleared the
CWA tomorrow morning however shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances will continue through tomorrow morning as the upper level
trough associated with the cold front swings through the region.
Skies will then look to clear out west to east Saturday afternoon.
Conditions will be much cooler behind the front Saturday with highs
in the mid 70s. High pressure will then move into the area Saturday
night and remain over the area through Sunday night bring fair and
some of the coolest weather of the season thus far. Lows Saturday
and Sunday night will bottom out on the mid to upper 50s with highs
on Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Extended Range (Monday - Thursday):
Monday, high pressure will shift off to the east and WAA will begin
to get underway allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 80s.
However, as we head into the middle part of next week conditions
look to become unsettled again as another upper level trough moves
from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. WAA storms
will move into the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the
upper trough moves into the northern Plains on Wednesday it will
send a sagging cold front towards the area continuing thunderstorm
chances on Wednesday. The front then looks to stall across the area
with thunderstorms remaining possible through Thursday. Highs for
most of next week look to remain in the ow to mid 80s range.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016
A line of thunderstorms will impact all TAF sites between 01z and at
least 04z, then some weaker convection could linger through around
06z. A few very isolated showers and storms are possible ahead of the
line, but the main concern will be when the heavier thunderstorms
arrive. Winds in the storms will be out of the west to northwest and
could contain gusts of up to 40 to 45 kts, and visibilities could be
temporarily reduced to below 1 mile. After storms pass through, a few
spotty showers and MVFR ceilings are possible before ceilings begin
to gradually lift and drier air moves in. Winds will switch to the
northwest in and behind the storms, and will remain out of the NW to
NNW through the remainder of the TAF period.