Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 051719

1219 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Issued at 319 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Today through Wednesday:

The blocking pattern that has been in place the past few days will
continue to hold today. A cutoff low over the southeastern CONUS
(which has helped bring catastrophic rain to parts of South Carolina)
and another over southern California will remain entrenched over
those areas today. In between those two upper systems, modest upper
level ridging will exist over the central CONUS. At the surface,
high pressure is building into the region. However, low level
moisture trapped underneath the ridge has brought overcast skies to
the area. Models are consistent and, continue to indicate that this
stratus will be slow to burn off especially under October sunlight
filtered by quite a bit of high cirrus. As such, have kept clouds in
the forecast through the day and trended on the low side of guidance
with high temperatures keeping them in the mid 60s to near 70.
Cloudy skies should also prevail through the night keeping
temperatures generally in the mid 50s despite light winds. On
Tuesday, the upper level pattern begins to "unblock" as the upper
low over the southeastern CONUS begins to open up and shift
eastward. Locally, upper level ridging remains in place and actually
strengthens in response to the western upper low shifting into the
southwestern CONUS. At the surface, the ridge axis will move
directly over the area providing enough dry air to the area to
finally begin to scatter out the overcast stratus by the afternoon.
In response to the strengthening upper ridge and some afternoon sun,
temperatures should rise into the low to mid 70s. Wednesday, will be
the warmest day of the week as winds pick up from the SSE out ahead
of an approaching cold front being ushered into the Plains by an
upper level trough moving across the northern tier states. Highs will
range into the mid 70s to near 80.

Wednesday night - Thursday night:

This will be the active period of weather as the aforementioned cold
front pushes through the area. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
will move into the northwestern CWA Wednesday night after midnight
and then spread across the area on Thursday as the cold front moves
through. Temperatures should still warm into the mid 70s to near 80
again on Thursday out ahead of the front.

Friday - Sunday:

Surface high pressure will build into the region behind the
departing cold front allowing for a cool day on Friday with highs in
the mid 60s. However, a warming trend is expected to progress
through the weekend as WAA will get underway Saturday as high
pressure shifts eastward. This will occur as upper level ridging
builds across the southern Plains through the weekend. Highs on
Saturday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s and will rise into the
mid 70s to the lower 80s on Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Low-level stratus will linger through the period with moisture
trapped underneath approaching ridge. Conditions should remain MVFR
though environment will once again become favorable for fog
overnight. IFR conditions are possible early Tuesday morning, but
will hold off on including in forecast for the time. Stratus deck
will finally erode Tuesday afternoon with cloud layer expected to
begin lifting by the mid-morning Tuesday.




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