Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201130

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 332 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Coldest day of the next 7 days will be today --highs in the 50s and
low 60s--, but we are expecting a return to nice, if above normal,
temperatures for the weekend much of next week. Water vapor imagery
this morning shows a progressive longwave trough shifting across the
Plains States. The low level jet associated with this trough has
kept showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri
yesterday through the early morning hours, with a secondary area of
light rain in eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas thanks to the
frontogenic forcing along a secondary cold front that will sweep
into the region today.

The showers sliding into far northwest Missouri will slowly
dissipate through the morning hours as forcing along this secondary
boundary lets up; however, a few showers or sprinkles will be
possible through the morning hours. The cool air that the north
winds will bring today will suppress afternoon highs, keeping today`s
readings a bit below normal. This cool spell will result in lows
Thursday morning in the mid to upper 30s across the region. Current
projections indicate that it wont be cold enough for a freeze,
though some frost may be possible thanks to clear skies and calm

The cool weather wont last long as the progressive trough`s axis,
that is allowing the cool air to spill south, will move to our east
later tonight placing Kansas and Missouri under the expanding
influence of an upper level ridge. This will allow temperatures to
start creeping back up on Friday -highs in the 60s-, but the notable
warmup to above normal temperatures will occur over the weekend with
70s expected for afternoon highs. This run of above normal
temperatures looks to run well into next week with 70s for highs.
Next chance for widespread rain looks to wait till the later half of
next week.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as north winds
persist through the day. Temperatures tonight might cool enough to
produce some fog, but currently we are too far out and have too
little confidence in the fog formation to add it to the end of the
TAF cycle at this time.




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