Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280357
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.

Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.

Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.

And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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