Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Water vapor imagery showing sprawling high pressure centered across
the American Southeast this afternoon...all in advance of a long wave
trough now working through the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. Along
the surface...long awaited weak trough/cold front now stalling just
south of the I-70 corridor...with northeast and easterly winds
prevailing in its wake across the greater KC Metro and much of
northern MO/eastern KS. Fortunately...cooler air continues to filter
into the region which has led to lower heat index values than
previous days. Inherited heat advisory to remain in effect through
00z this evening with no plans for additional heat headlines through
the remainder of the week.

Heading into tonight...main focus remains centered just to our north
as fcst models show redeveloping convection as the low-level jet
intensifies and impinges upon main synoptic front to our north. From
this vantage point...heaviest activity expected across southern NE/IA
as LLJ leads to best moisture convergence across these areas.
Regardless...models do indicate activity will work east along the
IA/MO state line during the predawn hrs as shortwave energy tracks
east along the northern periphery of upper ridge axis. For now...have
increased pops into the likely category across across the far
north...while also increasing pops to chc as far south as the
northern Metro. For areas removed from organized precip...tough call
with respect to cloud coverage. With main upper high directly to our
southeast...and with sfc ridging extending south from high pressure
across the upper Miss Rvr Vly...potential exists for develop fog for
areas that remain mostly clear. No mention in the grids at this point
due to uncertainty...but fcst models are making the suggestion none-
the-less.

By tomorrow...early morning activity to gradually track east during
the AM hrs with another warm and humid day expected in its wake.
Main synoptic scale front to remain north of the fcst area during the
day with no real hope of further southward progress as western Great
Lakes high pressure tracks east. Very hard to find any true forcing
mechanism through the day and as a result...have backtracked on pops
across the south and southeast through the afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today...with mid/upper 80s expected up north...while low
to mid 90s dominate further south.

Fcst becomes a tad more interesting Thu into Fri as previously
mentioned upper wave begins to track east into the central/southern
High Plains. As is the case with these types of systems...leeside
cyclogenesis expected to take place with developing low then expected
to track northeast through the conclusion of the short term period.
For now...best chc for developing shwrs/storms looks to arrive
Thursday night into Friday as sfc low approaches and moisture
advection again increases thanks to a straightening low-level jet. Based
on decent model agreement...have elected to increase pops both Thu
night and Friday which should finally allow main synoptic scale front
to sink south across the area. With weak winds aloft...large scale
severe weather is not expected with trough passage...but hopefully
all will benefit from some needed rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Upper trough will continue to lift eastward through the region on
Saturday allowing for weak ridging to build into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  There will be some lingering
precipitation chances during the day on Saturday with exiting
system, however Sunday looks to be mainly dry.  H8 temperatures in
the +16C to +18C range over the weekend should translate to surface
temperatures near normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Late on Sunday deepening upper trough over western CONUS should
begin to impact the region allowing for strengthening low-level
southerly flow.  As a result temperatures should return to values
above normal by the early part of next week, but should not be as
warm as we have seen the last several days.  ECMWF and GFS in agreement
indicating strong LLJ nosing into eastern Kansas on Monday morning
and to a lesser degree on Tuesday morning.  With surface boundary in
vicinity slight chance-chance PoPs seem reasonable especially across
northern Missouri on Monday and the rest of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue there might be storms that may develop across far
northwest Missouri early Wednesday morning. Have inserted VCTS for
the KSTJ terminal, but expectations are that activity will stay
farther north. Otherwise, expect east to southeast winds to persist
through the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Cutter







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