Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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043
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.Discussion...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON MAR 20 2017

A weak ridge, looking more like a zonal flow locally due to the
shortwave trough moving east across the Canadian Plains, will
continue to prevail across the Central Plains of the United States
today. This will allow temperatures to once again range well above
normal; though whether the readings reach record breaking levels
like Sunday`s temperatures remains to be seen as the Canadian trough
will finish forcing a weak dry cold front south across Missouri
later this morning under the aforementioned upper level ridge.

The front will settle into Southern Missouri later this afternoon
and provide a bit of focus for thunderstorm activity late tonight
into Tuesday morning as a modest little 700mb trough points the
nocturnal jet at the frontal boundary. The front might be
wallowing as far south as Arkansas, generating some isentropic
lift to work with the returning Gulf moisture late tonight. This
will likely result in a band of storms late tonight/early Tuesday
morning across southern Missouri, though it`s not impossible that
some activity might be as far north as Highway 50 by sunrise
Tuesday morning. While the rain may spread farther north through
the day Tuesday, the amount of total rain possible looks rather
limited; so not much help with our current run of dry weather.

Temperatures will remain around to below normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the cool air behind the cold front finally settles
south into the region. However, our cool temperatures in the middle
of the work week will bound back above normal for the end of the
week as a large trough digs into the West Coast and induces a down
stream southwest flow across the Southern and Central Plains.
However, with the returning warm air will come sufficient moisture to
bring a decent chance at widespread rain in a couple of periods late
this work week. The widespread chance of rain will return starting
Thursday morning as a warm front lifts across the region. Once the
warm front has lifted to our north --Thursday night-- we will then
look towards the associated surface low and cold front to sweep east
during the day Friday to generate more storms which might linger
into the overnight hours. Otherwise, with the passage of the cold
front late Friday, weekend temperatures will end up running near
to just above normal.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAR 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected with winds shifting from the north to
the northwest by 00Z for all sites.  After 00Z, winds will continue
from the northwest near 10kts.  Precipitation and lower ceilings
early tomorrow morning look to remain south of the terminals at this
time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Heller



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