Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 181733
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

Name of the game for the foreseeable will be very warm temperatures
with values possibly reaching the century mark later this week.
Before we dive into those details however...we`re still monitoring
convection along the IA/MO state border this morning as a strong low-
level jet impinges upon an outflow boundary that`s slowly working
south this morning across northern Missouri...with additional
dynamics being supplied by strong upper divergence in the right
entrance region of an upper jet streak to our north. Latest MRMS
precip estimates suggest 3-hr precip totals in excess of 3 inches
across northern Nodaway and Worth Counties...but calls to local law
enforcement indicate no current hydro-related issues. In any
event...activity should slowly come to an end towards sunrise as the
low-level jet weakens with time.

Today will mark Day 2 of the ongoing heat wave as upper ridging
continues to build across the Nation`s midsection. Highs this
afternoon will reach well into the lower to middle 90s with low 70
degree dewpoints yielding afternoon heat indicies near or slightly
above the 100 degrees in many areas. Will have to watch across the
far north as lingering cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees
cooler than areas south of Route 36 but it should still feel
oppressive considering the added moisture from this morning`s
rainfall. Heading into tonight...slight chance for shwrs/storms as a
weak shortwave dives southeast in northwest flow aloft. Overall
however...best forcing from the low-level jet will remain north and
west of our area...and wouldn`t be surprised if much if not the
entire area remained dry.

Heading towards midweek...upper ridge to become well-entrenched across
the Heartland with latest GFS standardized anomalies suggesting 500
hPa heights 2-3 standard deviations above normal. This will result in
temps climbing even higher with upper mid/upper 90s likely on
Wednesday...with temps possibly reaching/exceeding the 100 degree
mark across portions of the area both Thursday and Friday. After
extensive collaboration with adjacent offices (thanks
TOP/ICT/SGF/LSX!)...have decided to extend the heat advisory out
through 00z on Saturday. Based on this morning`s model runs
however...its conceivable to believe that portions of our area may
need an upgrade to an excessive heat warning as the week progresses.
The heat monster looks to continue right through Saturday with a reprieve
finally expected to arrive Saturday night as a front sags south over
the region. This should set the stage for a return to near normal
temperatures early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist across the terminals through
the forecast period. Storms to the north have pushed an outflow
boundary south earlier this morning. Aside from associated cloud
cover, not anticipating much in the way of storm development along
this boundary, though an isolated storm or two remains possible
through the afternoon hours, just south of MCI. Winds will vary in
direction through the afternoon slightly in response to the boundary,
but southeasterly flow should resume through the late afternoon.
Otherwise, clouds will begin to dissipate after sunset with
additional overnight convection likely remaining well north of the
terminals.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ103>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-030>033-038>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028-029-
     037.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh


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