Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242339

639 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain showers will lift up from the southwest this
evening and tonight, likely impacting all TAF sites between 02z and
at least 08z Monday. Ceilings with these showers are generally around
or slightly above 2 kft, although periods of lower-end MVFR will
become possible after 08z. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will scatter out
by mid-morning Monday, leaving behind VFR conditions for the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will gradually back to the south, increasing to
speeds around 10-12 kts by mid-morning Monday.


KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-



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