Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 132318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 239 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Thick stratocu has developing this afternoon in response
increasing moisture and instability; however, a stout capping
inversion around ~750 hPa evident on ACARS soundings, plus the
destructive nature of the cu has thus far kept any isolated
shower/storm activity from developing this afternoon. While a
brief sprinkle can`t be completely ruled out along far southern
portions of the CWA where the cu is visually more agitated and the
cap may be a bit weaker, did not feel the chance of measurable
precip was high enough to warrant PoPs.

A similar story is expected Monday, but a weak outflow boundary
from nocturnal convection across the northern Plains could settle
into northern portions of the CWA and provide enough lift for a
few showers and storms during the afternoon; otherwise, capping
should remain strong enough to hold PoPs down across the CWA. LLJ
convection could develop late Monday night across south central KS
and lift northeast into the forecast area by Tuesday morning, but
would also be in a weakening/dissipating stage by the time any
storms reached the western edge of the CWA, keeping PoPs fairly
low through at least Tuesday evening. While a few model solutions
are developing precipitation across the CWA on Tuesday afternoon,
do not feel that the chance is warranted with capping in place,
and appears to be agreement from the NAM Nest that is able to
resolve the strength of the cap without convective contamination.
The best chance for precip on Tuesday will come during the very
late overnight into Wednesday morning as an MCS dives southeast
across NE and potentially into northwest MO, but will depend on
exactly where (and if) that feature develops.

A cold front will push through the CWA on Wednesday, sparking
scattered storms during the afternoon and evening. Instability and
shear should support strong to possibly severe storms, although
surface-based instability will be dependent on any morning storms
and how much time elapses between rounds of precip. The front will
clear out of the area by Wednesday night, and while a few precip
chances will linger into the end of the week, these chances are
low with the boundary hanging south of the forecast area.

&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Models continue to indicate a possible MCS/nocturnal convection
in the area Sunday night into Monday morning, but have sped up
slightly with this feature a bit from the last several runs and
have started to clear precipitation out of the region by the
afternoon. Low-level moisture/overall flow is still supportive
of at least scattered clouds, but the pattern doesn`t look quite
as wet as it has for Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Current VFR conditions may eventually yield to scattered areas of
MVFR cigs/vis prior to sunrise Monday. Confidence remains
relatively low, but enough signal exists for a mention in
forecast. Otherwise expect steady return to VFR by mid to late
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Blair


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