Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

A reprieve from the active weather will define the latter half of
the holiday weekend both today and Monday. Widespread convection
currently over Oklahoma and Arkansas will continue to surge
southward through Sunday morning. Mid to upper-level cloud cover
associated with this activity will continue to advect into central
Missouri through the early morning, though this will begin to
scatter out over the local area as the mid-levels begin to
quickly dry out heading into the afternoon. Deep mixing and
clearing skies will bring a slight warming trend back into the
region today, as highs reach into the upper 70s for most areas.
May see some gusty winds out of the NNW during peak heating
between 15 to 20 mph, perhaps up to 25 mph across northern
Missouri, as 850 hPa winds increase upstream of a deepening trough
situated over the Northern Plains.

A weak frontal boundary may support a few sprinkles across
northwestern Missouri Monday morning, though residual dry air within
the lower levels should limit this potential. Better chances for
precipitation should hold off until the boundary approaches
central to southern Missouri Monday afternoon, where low level
moisture is slightly more favorable. The next round of storm
chances will arrive Tuesday, as a weak shortwave associated with
the previously mentioned upper level system will advance over the
area, coincident with the passage of a cold front over northwest
Missouri. Areas more likely to see precipitation with this feature
will reside south of Highway 36 and north of the Missouri River.
While instability should remain marginal ahead of the boundary,
adequate wind fields aloft could support isolated deep convection
and resulting large hail and strong winds Tuesday afternoon and
evening, mostly across west central Missouri and portions of
eastern Kansas.

Additional precip chances will resume by the late week as a warm
front lifts across the area. Widespread low-level moisture advection
extending up to the Northern Plains will prime the area for storm
chances to continue heading into the weekend underneath progged
mid-level disturbances overhead. Very weak wind fields aloft
should limit the potential for severe weather during this time as
the upper-level jet develops well north of the Central Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period and
into the early week as a surface ridge builds from the west.
Winds will back slightly by Sunday evening, becoming
southwesterly by Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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