Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 300934
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Issued at 331 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015
The upper level system that has been entrenched over the central
Rockies the past few days will finally be on the move today bringing
one more day of unsettled weather. The good news is the
precipitation will be in liquid form.
The upper level trough with a closed low currently centered over
Wyoming will push into Nebraska today. This will allow for surface
cyclogenesis to occur with a surface low developing over eastern
Kansas this morning. This surface low will lift north thru the day
along the Missouri River into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa by this
evening. This will force a cold front through the area and allow
rain to overspread the area yet again today. Temperatures this
morning are ranging from just above freezing near the MO/IA border
and are otherwise in the mid to upper 30s. As the surface low
develops across eastern Kansas and lifts northward, warm air will be
drawn northward as winds pick up out of the south to southwest this
afternoon. That will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 30s to
mid 40s and keep precipitation in the form of rain. By early tonight
the front will have exited the eastern CWA however with a lack of
cold air behind the front temperatures will only dip into the upper
20s to lower 30s tonight. There may be enough moisture present
tonight behind the front to see rain briefly change over to snow
across northwestern Missouri. However, model soundings suggest that
there may not be ice crystals in the snow growth zone when
temperatures drop below freezing.
The upper level low and surface low become nearly stacked across
southern Minnesota tonight. This stacked system will then slowly
push east into the Great Lake Region Tuesday through Tuesday night.
This will allow for increased cloud cover across the northern CWA.
Also, a few vort maxes will move through the area on the back side
of the low. This may be enough to allow for a few snow showers
across the northern CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night however, no
accumulations are expected. Highs Tuesday will remain cool in the
mid 30s to mid 40s.
The remainder of the forecast period looks dry with a warming trend
through the period. Wednesday will remain cool under strong
northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Thursday, surface high pressure will build into the region as
northwesterly flow aloft relaxes over the region. Highs Thursday
with rise to near normal into the 40s. Upper level ridging will
build into the region for Friday and Saturday which will be the
warmest days of the forecast period with highs in the mid 40s to mid
50s. Models are consistent at this time in depicting an upper low
digging into the southern Plains on Sunday. Clouds will be in the
increase ahead of this system during the day keeping highs a degree
or two cooler with the next chance of precipitation Sunday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Scattered rain showers and periods of drizzle will continue over the
next several hours before a swath of rain moves in. HRRR hi-res model
brings this swath in between 10-11Z. Light rain will continue into
the late morning hours before ending. Cloud decks are expected to
remain IFR or lower and vsby may bounce between categories.
Conditions will begin to improve by late tomorrow afternoon and
evening as precip moves out of the region.