Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250924
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
324 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2018

As of early this morning, clear skies and cool temperatures are in
place across the region as the strong lead wave and associated cold
front have pushed well east of the region. Temperatures will quickly
recover today, with high temperatures reaching the middle 40s over
northern MO to the middle 50s in west central MO. While most of the
day will be sunny, an increase in clouds will be noted this
afternoon and evening as the base of the primary trough approaches
the area. While mid-level clouds will increase, a dry subcloud layer
will persist, prohibiting precipitation for our area.

Weak upper ridging moves into the region Monday and Tuesday, with
surface winds becoming southerly. This will aid in a strong
warmup with above normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Look for
low clouds to potentially return on Tuesday as strong warm air
advection and moisture transport occurs, with surface dewpoints
returning well into the 40s. This increase in warmth and moisture
is in response to another large upper trough that looks to eject
neutrally-tilted into the Central Plains and middle MO Valley on
Wednesday. Model spread remains modest with respect to the
positioning of key features, but the general picture suggests a
surface low pressure and cold front moving across or nearby
portions of the forecast area Wednesday evening. This active
pattern will result in unsettled weather Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning, with several rounds of precipitation possible.
Sufficient instability and supportive wind shear will exist for
the potential for thunderstorms. Once the upper trough clears the
area on Thursday, quiet weather looks to continue through the
remainder of the week. With the Pacific origin of the departing
system, temperatures will generally remain above normal through
the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

Expecting VFR conditions through the night. Fog is a minor
possibility considering the wet ground from recent rains, but
given winds around 5 to 10 kts through the night fog formation
will likely be pretty patchy and brief. Considered a TEMPO for 3
hours around sunrise for temporary reduced VIS due to fog, but
winds prevented official forecast issuance of fog. Will continue
to monitor and amend if needed.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Leighton



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