Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 282359
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
659 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

It`s looking a bit wet as a couple of large troughs are expected to
sweep across the Nation over the next week.

Satellite imagery today shows one, in what will be a series, of
large troughs shifting east across the Four Corners region today;
which will then lift across the Lower Missouri River Valley
Wednesday through Thursday. Another large trough is expected to
follow the mid-work week trough into and out of the Four Corners
region; effecting the Central Plains over the up coming weekend into
early next work week. And, that`s not even the end of it as models
continue to advertise some fast moving open shortwave troughs
zipping east later next week; all of which might bring some
stormy weather.

Late tonight the Four Corners trough will begin to eject into and
through the Plains States. Abundant moisture has already spread
north from the Gulf thanks to the system this past weekend. With the
moisture in place, and more to come, the trough will have no issue
generating some widespread stormy activity over the next couple of
days as it slowly ejects northeast across the Plains. Current track
of the upper level and surface features indicate that the best
potential for severe weather with this system will be south of our
area; with the focus down in Arkansas and points south. But, that
doesn`t preclude some strong storms as far north as central
Missouri.

As the trough exits the Four Corners warm air advection will start
over running the Plains with the help of the nocturnal jet. With
both strong warm air and moisture advection expected on the nose
of this jet, rain will develop and spread northeast into eastern
Kansas and Missouri before sunrise Wednesday. Instability will be
a bit hard to find across the northern half of Kansas and Missouri
tomorrow due to cloud cover and prevailing showers, but as the
trough begins to approach cooling aloft will help induce some --up
to 900 J/KG-- elevated instability for storms to work with for
the afternoon and evening hours. As for shear, 0-6KM values will
be running in the 60 to 70 knot range by the afternoon hours. All
this means that areas of east central Kansas into Central Missouri
--south of Highway 50-- will have some threat of for severe
weather; with what severe threat there is decreasing rapidly as
you move north. Primary threats from the weather look to be large
hail, though some strong gusty winds will also be possible given
the strong winds aloft. Otherwise, as precipitable water values
will be around 1 to 1.25 inches, which is in the 90% range for
this time of year, and we are expecting sufficient rainfall that
some flash flooding could be an issue along with significant rises
on areas rivers and streams.

Next bout of rain will then arrive over the weekend as the next
large trough moves into and slowly through the Plains. Storms from
this second trough will likely arrive late Saturday night and
persist through at least Sunday into Monday, and maybe Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Low MVFR conditions will persist until the early morning hours
when over-running moisture enters the area dropping ceilings and
visibility into the IFR and then LIFR categories for most of the
forecast area. This is all thanks to a surface low approaching
from the south-southwest. Scattered to widespread showers and a
few thunderstorms will also move into the area in the early
morning hours and should stick around for the remainder of the
forecast period. Most of the instability will remain south of HWY
36, but can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two along and north.
Winds will be gusty tomorrow morning as the low gets closer to the
area. CIG and VIS conditions will not improve as the day goes on
tomorrow, due to the surface low taking its time moving through
the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Grana



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