Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 262025

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 324 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

After today the weather across the local forecast area of eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri will be rather benign with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures dominating the forecast
over the next week. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows us a
ridge in place to our west with the axis across the Rocky Mountains
and a shortwave trough downstream of the ridge axis, sliding east
across the Mississippi River this afternoon. The surface reflection
of the trough, a cold front, is presently sweeping southeast through
eastern Kansas and Missouri; currently along a line from
Kansas City to Kirksville.

Despite the cold front sweeping southeast today, we expect neither
more rain or even cold temperatures thanks to the ridge to our west.
As the front moves through overnight we might see clouds clear and a
bit of fog early Thursday morning, but otherwise we will just see a
wind shift late this afternoon and this evening --from southwest to
northwest--. However, the surface high behind the front is not very
large so winds will swing back to the south by Thursday afternoon
allowing temperatures to rebound for Thursday afternoon into the 60s
and 70s. Otherwise, as we look forward through the weekend, the
western ridge will expand east but flattens out as multiple fast
moving shortwave troughs continue to ride up and over the ridge. The
ridge placement will keep the storm track well to our north through
the weekend into the middle of next work week. As a result, expect
afternoon highs and overnight lows to both run well above normal
through next week. Friday might be the warmest day thanks to the
sunshine and south winds ahead of another front that will have formed
across the northern Plains, helping boost afternoon highs into the
low 80s. We are not quite forecasting record high temperatures for
Friday --record high for the 28th in KC is 84 degrees from 1944--
but we are close.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

Clouds have been hanging in at the terminals through the morning
hours thanks to the showers and thunderstorms that moved through. A
cold front is now sinking south into the region and will work its way
through the terminals this afternoon. Cold air advection on the back
side of the front is generating some MVFR to IFR conditions in
southeast Nebraska that might swing as far south as the terminals
this afternoon, but confidence is sufficiently low enough to not add
the IFR conditions to the TAF at this time. Additionally, fog may be
an issue for the terminals early Thursday morning if the skies can
completely clear out.




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