Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 052138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

An upper low will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley
overnight, but influence will be limited to high clouds moving
through the area as precipitation will remain well to the south and
east of the CWA. A cold front currently located over central
Nebraska will make steady progress and move through the forecast
area tonight, beginning a markedly colder period for the remainder
of the week. Latest model runs have suggested a few sprinkles may be
possible with the frontal passage overnight, although confidence is
relatively low at this time. If this does occur, surface
temperatures should still be a few degrees above freezing, so no
impacts would be expected. Surface high pressure builds into the
area on Tuesday with relatively quiet weather conditions. Highs will
be cooler in the middle 30s to lower 40s, even with mostly sunny
skies.

Concern turns to snow potential and cold temperatures in the middle
to late portion of the work week. The biggest change to the new
forecast is to reduce snowfall amounts on Wednesday. Models have
trended with less QPF in response to weakening the ascent and mid-
level baroclinic zone over the area. Operational guidance is
relatively consistent with the timing, with the daylight hours
Wednesday as the most likely window for accumulating snowfall.
Forecast soundings show vertical temperature profile to support snow,
but considerable low-level dry air to overcome, so areas without the
preferred snow growth conditions will have a difficult time
saturating, resulting in the potential for a sharp gradient between
accumulating snow and flurries. Currently, up to one-half of an inch
of total snow is expected along and south of the Interstate 70
corridor. Temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees below normal on
Thursday, with highs in the 20s and lows in the lower teens. The cold
airmass will persist Wednesday into Friday before temperatures
gradually moderate during the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST MON DEC 5 2016

Stratus at IXD and points south should quickly erode the next hour
and make little to no additional progress northward. Otherwise will
see another round of stratus associated with a cold frontal passage
overnight, with wind directions becoming northwest and ceilings
approaching near-MVFR levels. Low clouds are expected to clear
terminal space near or just after sunrise.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair


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