Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 292112
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Issued at 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Thunderstorms currently erupting across central KS into northern OK
are anchored by boundaries in their vicinity. Localized moisture
pooling, an uncapped and unstable atmosphere, and steep lapse rates
are all contributing to the upscale growth this afternoon. While some
of these parameters bleed into the western portions of this forecast
area, the local atmosphere is drier, and without much for storms to
hang their hats on, chances of storm development and/or maintenance remains
low. Additionally, a lack of deep layer shear and a large-scale
lifting mechanism keeps storm growth spatially and temporally at bay.
Note though that the chances of pop-up pulsy storms are not nil -
they just remain on the low side.
Better convection chances arrive late tomorrow through early
Wednesday. While the area has had a bit of a break from the unsettled
pattern this weekend, a few more days of unsettled weather returns.
Surface southerly flow returns for Memorial Day and coupled with
another unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates during the
afternoon, storms will be possible. However, 0-6km shear remains
marginal at best for organized development and severe potential so
the storm mode of choice will likely be pulsy in nature. As a frontal
boundary and upper-level trough approaches the area late Tuesday,
storm organization as well as coverage will be on the increase. Shear
will remain in question with respect to severe chances though.
For the latter half of the week, should finally see a decent period
of dry weather as surface high pressure visits the area. The next
chance for precip could arrive next weekend as a boundary and
seemingly weak trough axis rotates through but the limiting factor
could be moisture. Too far out at this point to linger on the details
at this point. Temperatures will be rather seasonable for this time
of year, ranging in the 70s and 80s throughout the forecast period.
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
VFR is likely to prevail throughout the TAF period as thunderstorm
chances look to largely remain outside of the terminal areas, off
toward the south and west. However, can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm popping up in the vicinity this afternoon into this
evening. Lack of confidence in a direct impact to terminals precludes
mention in the TAF. Will AMD as necessary.
Through tonight, winds will become more southerly, allowing for more
moisture to advect into the region tomorrow. Convective chances will
be on the increase tomorrow but those increasing chances largely fall
outside of this period.