Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171118

618 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Issued at 317 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Main concerns for today will be temperatures in the wake of a cold
frontal passage and rain chances as a shortwave trough pushes east
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of cloud cover and any precipitation-associated cooling that occurs
this afternoon, especially as northerly winds and thus any cold air
advection will begin to wane during the early to mid afternoon.

Low- and midlevel dry air is fairly homogeneous across the CWA this
morning, and will be difficult to overcome for measurable precip to
occur this afternoon. Pacific moisture currently associated with the
approaching shortwave trough will mostly filter southeast with the
primary 700 mb low this afternoon, but most models are showing a
weak secondary shortwave trough ejecting northeast into the southern
half of the CWA and carrying with it a narrow finger of moisture in
the 700-800 mb layer. General model consensus including high-res
guidance is to keep most precipitation along and south of a line
from the southern KC metro to Macon, and even in these areas, total
precipitation should only be a few hundredths due to the weakness of
the incoming moisture and existing dry air. High temperatures will
be locally a few degrees cooler where very light precipitation and
thicker cloud cover is expected, but highs should still reach 50 to
55 degrees in most locations.

Any rain this afternoon will quickly diminish this evening as weak
high pressure filters in behind the departing system. Lows tonight
into Friday morning may fall into the mid to upper 30s under weak
surface flow, but widespread temperatures at or below the freezing
mark are not anticipated. A warming trend is expected Friday through
Saturday as southerly flow returns and an upper level ridge builds
across the central CONUS, bringing highs into the mid to upper 60s
for Friday and the mid to upper 70s by Saturday. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday into Monday as a
surface front stalls near the northern CWA border and slowly sinks
southward, holding temperatures down a bit for Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, above normal temperatures will return with readings near or
in excess of 80 degrees expected Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Broken stratocumulus with bases around 2 kft will gradually
scatter out by mid morning across the region, leaving behind
VFR conditions and scattered to broken ceilings around 12-15 kft.
Very light rain showers are possible along and south of a line from
the southern KC metro to Macon this afternoon, but are not expected
to significantly reduce ceilings or visibility. Northerly winds will
become light and variable by late afternoon, and will remain nearly
calm overnight.




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