Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131959

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast. The upper
pattern will remain in place through the end of the week but will
become more amplified. The troughing over the east and riding over
the west will both become stronger by the end of the week. This will
allow for another front to sweep through the area Thursday night.
The chances for precipitation while the front passes through
continue to look low and at this point and probably low enough to
remove from the forecast. But like the other morning in northeastern
Missouri, there may be a few sprinkles or very light, transient
showers, but measurable precipitation looks like a long shot with
this frontal passage given how dry the low levels of the atmosphere
will be.

That front will usher in a colder air mass to the region. Saturday
morning lows will likely be in the 30s and lower 40s as clear skies,
dry air and surface ridging/light winds prevail. Similar conditions
are possible Sunday morning but the coldest temperatures will likely
be confined to the Kirksville area and vicinity as other portions of
the forecast will shifted to a light south wind. Given the cold
morning lows, areas of frost are likely both mornings with at least
some potential for frost headlines.

By the beginning of next week the upper pattern will have shifted
slightly, becoming more zonal across the central CONUS with a weak
upper low, that has been trapped under the western ridge, slowly
shifting eastward. This may be enough to give southwesterly low to
mid level flow and advect some moisture back into the area. By
Tuesday into Wednesday of next, it looks like we`ll finally have a
decent chance for meaningful rainfall to hopefully ease the short-
term dryness that has spread through the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 608 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue within a very dry air mass
over the region. Winds will be light and variable through the period.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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