Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212117

417 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Light southeast winds and VFR conditions will continue as high
pressure over the region slowly shifts east. Expect increasing clouds
around 5k ft to spread eastward across eastern KS/western MO early
Wednesday morning. Could see isolated very light showers from southeast
NE into northwest MO during this time.




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