Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221117

617 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface wind speeds
will gradually veer from northeast to southeast by this evening.




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