Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212322

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Another beautiful day across the Lower Missouri Valley as surface
high pressure continues to slowly slide east over the area. Winds
have slowly shifted back to the south over the western forecast area
which is the first sign of developing warm air advection which will
continue through the overnight period. As a result...overnight lows
will not be as cool as last night`s with most areas falling into the
lower to middle 40s by morning. Southwest winds to increase on
Saturday as leeside troughing develops along the Front Range.
Continued southerly flow will increase 850 temps to the 14 to 16C
range which will support highs in the lower 70s Saturday afternoon.
Fcst models continue to highlight an approaching cold front Sunday
afternoon which should slide into the area during the late afternoon
and evening hours. Limited moisture in advance of this feature along
with the fact that the best forcing for ascent will be tied to the
polar jet well to our north...should prevent any precip development
along the feature as it moves into our area. Aside from
this...continued warming 850 temps will likely support even warmer
afternoon highs with mid 70s possible through the afternoon hours.

Cooler but continued dry conditions expected across the region on
Monday as high pressure noses in from the north. Sunday`s front will
begin lifting back as a warm front Monday night/early Tuesday as a
leeside low pressure center begins tracking northeast from the
central High Plains. Fcst models have had... and continue to be in
good agreement on this feature with both ECMWF and GFS maintaining
their suggestion that feature will lift northeast just west of our
area through the day on Tuesday. As this occurs...warm advection
shwrs/storms may develop across the area by Tuesday afternoon with
the main show expected to arrive Tuesday night as the trailing cold
front begins working through the area. Fcst models highlight enough
instability to allow for thunderstorm activity along the boundary
before feature finally clears the area by late Wednesday morning.
Following its passage...dry weather looks to return to the area
however a major cooldown is not expected as southerly flow looks to
quickly return ahead of the next developing areas of low pressure
over the High Plains. In fact...temps look to remain well above
average through much of the period.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with surface
winds generally remaining out of the S to SW. Main concern will be
with the potential for low level wind shear Saturday morning as a
weak low level jet develops over the terminals. As of now, winds are
just below criteria for a mention in the forecast, though may need to
introduce this potential for the next issuance. 2kft winds out of the
SW are expected to sustain near 30kts during this time. Directional
shear is the main factor at this point, though should values exceed
30kts, the resulting combined effect will warrant mention of LLWS
for the 06Z forecast.




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