Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170452

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Issued at 142 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

In the wake of the cold front which pushed through the area early
this morning, dry conditions have been observed for most areas
through Sunday morning. However, areas of light precipitation
have recently formed west to east, mainly across central Kansas to
western Missouri. Building high pressure over southwestern Iowa
is generating an expansive area of convergence near 850 hPa, along
the northern extent of the residual moist airmass from yesterday.
This will continue to expand in coverage through the afternoon,
with resulting light to moderate rain showers sliding eastward
through the afternoon hours. An isolated thunderstorm or two is
possible within this activity, though severe weather is not
anticipated. The cold front which pushed through the local area
this morning has stalled over southern Missouri underneath
weakening flow aloft. Surface low pressure centered over the
Oklahoma Panhandle will lift this boundary back to the north as a
warm front this evening. Thus, additional rain showers and
thunderstorms are possible for areas mostly south of the Missouri
River this evening as the boundary lifts north. The worked over
environment should limit the overall severe potential locally. The
main uncertainty with the northward extent of evening storms
resides with the magnitude of southern push the surface ridge to
the north is able to assume against the frontal boundary to the
south. Still generally thinking that greater storm chances will
remain south of the Missouri River, though light activity is not
out of question across the northern CWA through Monday morning.

Will see mostly dry conditions Monday as weak mid-level ridging
returns to the Central Plains, briefly. The active pattern will then
quickly resume as an upper-level shortwave crosses over the Dakotas
and eventually into the Great Lakes Region Tuesday afternoon.
Consecutive model runs continue to place this feature further north,
though ample moisture will once again be drawn northward into the
CWA, bringing additional chances of thunderstorms to the area
beginning Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, all underneath a
strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night. By Wednesday night, a
much more pronounced upper wave will eject out of the Central
Rockies, which will maintain the active pattern into Thursday. As
of now, this appears to be the best chance for the next severe
potential as favorable upper-level dynamics return to the area.

The upper-level jet will take a southward push by the late week,
which will help to cool temperatures heading into the weekend. By
that time, an upper-level trough will develop overhead of the
local area, which will maintain precip chances through the end of
the forecast period. With all considered, rivers and streams will
need close monitoring as new seven day rainfall totals approach 4
to 5 inches across the western and southern CWA.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

Rain showers are still making their way across the forecast area
to the east-southeast. They should exit the area in the late
morning hours. VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected for
most of the forecast area thanks to a surface high and upper level
shortwave ridge moving east, north of our area. A warm front will
start to lift north later tonight bringing MVFR ceilings with it.
General model consensus is the warm front, and therefore lower
ceilings, should only lift into the southern part of the forecast
area near Butler and Clinton. It is possible the front lifts
further north, so have hinted at the possibility of MVFR ceilings
at IXD. As the upper level ridge continues to move east tomorrow
afternoon, any lower ceilings will lift to VFR for the remainder
of the period. Winds should be fairly light and out of east-
southeast for the forecast period.




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