Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 230531
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1131 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Issued at 342 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Little change to the forecast through the period. The theme
continues of warming temperatures through the work week, followed by
increasing chances of precipitation by mid-week. Much warmer
temperatures were noted this afternoon as breezy southwesterly winds
overspread the area. Readings crept closer to near-normal levels,
with afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 40s. This warming
trend will stretch into Monday and persist through Thursday as upper
level ridging develops over the Plains states and warming H85
temperatures overspread the region upon southwesterly flow. Maximum
readings will reach the 50s each day in most locations, with a few
60s possible Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture will also be on the
increase, especially Wednesday into Thursday as surface dewpoints
return to the lower to middle 50s.
With increasing ascent, deeper moisture, and the approach of a cold
front, chances for precipitation will increase Wednesday in the form
of drizzle or light rain, and most notably late Wednesday night into
Thursday as the cold front begins to move through the forecast area.
Up to two inches of rain may be possible during the multi-day event.
The surface cold front is expected to push south of the CWA by
Thursday night, filtering in much cooler air. There remains
considerable uncertainty to the coverage of precipitation lingering
behind the cold front as colder air begins to advect into the area.
If light precipitation remains, then a slight chance of light snow
would be possible as vertical temperature profiles begin to support
snowfall. That said, any remaining precipitation would be light in
nature and the window of opportunity short, therefore no
accumulation is expected with the scenario at this time. High
pressure will build into the Central Plains on Saturday, ushering in
cooler and drier air, providing an airmass that should be initially
too dry for precipitation to reach the surface. Models greatly
diverge by Sunday on the return of moisture ahead of the next
approaching upper trough, albeit the airmass in place could
potentially support some wintry weather with the initial
precipitation. Still nearly a week away, so plenty of time to watch
the evolution of these features at play. Temperature-wise, below
normal temperatures will return for Friday into the weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with clear to mostly
clear skies and light winds. Winds will be from a generally westerly
direction overnight and into the day tomorrow before shifting to a
southerly direction by tomorrow afternoon.