Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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450
FXUS63 KEAX 242309
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Tonight - Monday:

An extensive area of mid thick mid level cloud cover with embedded
light showers/sprinkles will continue to spread east across northern
MO with increasing high-based mid level clouds advancing through
west central MO. Lacking a push from the north and a hot and steamy
airmass to the south a weak cold front has made little progress
today. The boundary lies between MCI and STJ and extends through the
northeast corner of the CWA and to the west southwest into central
KS. A very warm elevated layer has kept convection in check. Believe
we have a small window between 23z and 02z for surface based
convection to form along the front. Should this activity fail to
develop we may have to wait until after midnight for any convective
activity to move in from the west. Have lowered PoPs some due to
closing window for surface based convection as well as the possible
delay until after midnight.

Tuesday through Sunday:

Compared to this past week next week continues to look rather
unsettled with multiple periods of precipitation chances after
Tuesday night. As the broad upper high reforms/retrogrades westward
into the intermountain region the flow becomes increasingly
dominated by northwesterly winds with embedded shortwaves/impulses
dropping southeast and through the Upper MS and mid MO River
Valleys. A nebulous surface pattern will exist with high pressure
shifting east and allowing a constant flow of moisture northward.
So, lacking timing consistency and surface boundaries am forced to
broadbrush PoPs throughout the forecast. Also favor going with
seasonal temperatures which is handled by the models.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

A weak front slowly moving through the area may trigger a few showers
or storms this evening/tonight. But not confident anything will form
at all so have just mentioned a VCTS group. There is some potential
for additional storms to move into the area tomorrow morning, but at
this point any signal is not strong to carry a mention at this time.
Otherwise, conditions look to be VFR with light northeasterly winds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...CDB



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