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000
FXUS63 KEAX 122037
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT Sun May 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

Large surface high dominating much of the central and eastern U.S. is
centered just south of Kansas City this afternoon. This feature will
begin shift eastward tonight and Monday allowing warmer temperatures
to spread into the region. Temperatures on Monday should be close
to, if not slightly above average with highs in the 70s. Didn`t bring
temps to their warmest potential since there could be some mid/high
clouds through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

Deep upper ridge over the Rockies will begin to break down and shift
toward the Plains on Tuesday. While the ridge will not be nearly as
deep by the time it moves overhead, its current strength is allowing
the high terrain out west to warm significantly, and westerly flow
will quickly advect these warm temperatures into the Plains Tuesday
afternoon in the form of a strong elevated mixed layer. In fact,
temperatures as warm as 25 C at 850 hPa may spread as far east as
northwest MO on Tues. Depending on how deep the boundary layer mixes
on Tues, we could easily reach 90 degrees or higher especially to the
north and west of KC where 850 temps will be highest. Believe models
may be starting us off too cool on Tuesday morning and not mixing
high enough through the afternoon. Therefore went quite a bit warmer
than most guidance with highs in the lower to even mid 90s across
northwest MO and northeast KS and near 90 everywhere else. These
readings could approach records for the day (93 at St. Joseph, 91 at
Kansas City).

Cold front dropping out of the Northern Plains will weaken and stall
over northern MO on Wednesday. This will set the stage for scattered
convection through the day as a weak shortwave tracks overhead and
interacts with the boundary. Upper level flow will be very weak so
severe storms should not be an issue, although flow may be so weak
that we may need to watch for a heavy rain threat with any storms
that stall near the boundary.

Upper flow will become quasi-zonal across most of the country by
Thursday and Friday while a warm and humid airmass will encompass
much of the region. Resulting instability and a few weak waves in an
ill-defined upper pattern could result in low chances for showers and
thunderstorms any time through the end of the week, though
pinpointing the best timing is difficult at this time. Most areas
will probably stay dry through the period, especially if capping
becomes strong enough. Better chances for organized storms will
arrive over the weekend as a shortwave tracks eastward across the
Plains. May need to watch this system for potential severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the prevailing TAF
period. Shortwave trough currently moving into and across Kansas
will bring some scattered clouds across the terminals but will
quickly clear early this evening. Winds will remain light and
variable overnight becoming southerly by tomorrow morning ahead
of a deepening surface trough across western Kansas.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM