Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241709

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 312 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Short Range (Today through Wednesday night):

Modest cold air advection is occurring early this morning behind a
cold front that moved through the forecast area last night. However,
this CAA will be short-lived as winds veer from the north to the
east this morning. This will lead to a cooler day than we
experienced on Sunday however, temperatures will still be mild for
late October standards. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the short range forecast period
as upper level shortwave ridging builds into the region ahead of an
upper level shortwave trough moving into the western Plains. A
surface low associated with the upper shortwave will move from
eastern Colorado to eastern Nebraska during the day lifting a warm
front across the area. This will allow highs to rise into the mid
60s (north) to the mid 70s (south). A few WAA showers will be
possible during the day across the northern CWA however the better
chance for precipitation will not occur until Tuesday night. By
Tuesday night the warm front will reside just north of the CWA across
southern Iowa. A 40-50kt southwesterly LLJ will increase and nose
into central Iowa initially developing precipitation north of the
CWA. However, as the surface low moves from eastern Nebraska into
central Iowa Tuesday night, this will drag a trailing cold front
through the area and bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A few stronger storms ca not be ruled out for extreme northwestern
Missouri in the vicinity of the surface low but otherwise just
general thunderstorms are expected. The cold front will have pushed
through the area by late Wednesday morning bring precipitation to an
end. However, will no discernible cold air behind the front,
temperatures will remain mild with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Extended Range (Thursday through Sunday):

The extended period continues to look dry and generally mild.
Surface high pressure will be in control on Thursday will highs in
the mid 60s to near 70s. However, Thursday night, strong WAA will
get underway leading to a warm Friday. Highs Friday will run close
to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the mid 70s to near 80.
Late Friday into Friday night an upper level trough digging from
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will force a quick moving
cold front through the area. The frontal passage will be generally
dry with just the chance for a shower across the extreme
northeastern CWA. Surface high pressure will build into the area on
Saturday but conditions will remain mild with highs in the mid 60s
to near 70. Another quick moving upper shortwave moving through the
Upper Midwest will push yet another cold front through the area. The
frontal passage will be dry but, it will return temperatures closer
to normal with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Ceilings are expected to develop and lower late tonight and tomorrow
morning across eastern KS and western MO. Cloud bases will likely be
in the 4,000 to 5,000 ft range but may be lower depending on how
strong the moist advection is into the region. Winds will gradually
veer to the southeast late tonight and tomorrow morning but should
remain less than 12kts.




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