Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 229 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2017

Upper level cloud cover associated with the remnants of Irma will
continue to dissipate overhead early Wednesday morning, ushering in
ample sun today through the remainder of the work week. Surface
temperatures will climb slightly compared to Tuesday, with values
reaching the low to mid 80s across much of the local area. A
mid/upper level blocking pattern will develop through the remainder
of the week as Irma becomes a cut off low to the east, coupled with
a deepening trough situated over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
overhead steady warm advection at the surface will make for a brief
return of July/August type temperatures Thursday through Saturday,
with values approaching the 90 degree mark.

By Friday, the aforementioned troughing pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will have advanced further eastward and will force leeside
low pressure near western KS/NE. Considering the tight PGF ahead of
this feature underneath moderate 850 hPa flow, surface winds may
gust to 20 to 25 mph across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
Friday afternoon. Mid-level cloud cover will then build steadily
into the area Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. While
there is a chance of isolated storms within the warm sector Saturday
morning, better forcing for widespread storm coverage will hold off
until Saturday evening. Precipitation chances should steadily
increase from Saturday night into Sunday morning as moisture
fields deepen ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The
boundary looks to stall across central Missouri Sunday morning as
the main upper level trough slowly dissolves across southern
Canada. The surface front will, however, lift back north as a warm
front early next week as another troughing pattern develops to
the northwest. This feature will then approach the local area by
the mid-week, which will maintain a fairly active pattern
beginning Saturday through much of next week. Above normal
temperatures will begin to settle slightly through next week,
though will still remain a few degrees above normal as
astronomical fall approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2017

Surface winds will remain light and variable throughout much of
the day until becoming SSW after sunset. Other than a few passing
upper level clouds, sky conditions will remain relatively clear
through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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