Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261141

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 325 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

Active weather will affect the area today however, the remainder of
the forecast period will be mild and dry until the very end of the
period. Last night, storms developed out ahead of a cold front
across southeastern Nebraska into central Kansas as a LLJ
strengthened. These storms have progressed eastward early this
morning and have weakened as they moved into the forecast area. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to push slowly east across the
forecast area this morning and weaken as they do. Meanwhile, the
front which storms developed ahead of, continues to lag back to the
west extending from near Omaha to Dodge City. This front will also push
slowly eastward today and may be the focus for thunderstorms
developing across the extreme southeastern CWA this afternoon.
Forcing and shear will be weak however, instability will be
sufficient enough for storms with around 1000J/kg of MUCAPE. However,
by tonight, the front will push east of the area and surface high
pressure will begin to build into the region. Highs today will be in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Conditions then look very mild and dry to close out the week and
into the weekend. Thursday, high pressure will remain in control
until later in the day when WAA will get underway. Expect highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Friday will be the warmest day of the
forecast period as upper level ridging builds into the area aloft and
strong WAA will prevail at the surface. Highs will rise into the mid
70s to lower 80s. Saturday a weak cold front will sag into the area
and become stationary over the area through Sunday. Highs Saturday
will still reach the mid to upper 70s but only reach the mid 60s to
mid 70s Sunday which is still 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Sunday
night the stalled front will lift north of the area as a warm front
and WAA will again bring very warm temperatures into the area on
Monday. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s. A cold front
moving through the area on Tuesday will bring the next chance for
thunderstorms however, temperatures will remain above normal in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

Showers are exiting the terminals this morning however, a stray
shower can not be ruled out for the next hour or two.
Otrw...conditions will remain dry thru the pd. Conds should remain
VFR, however, models are suggesting the potential for MVFR cigs btn
14Z-16Z however those MVFR cigs have not materialized along the cold
front so have excluded those lower cigs from the TAF. Expect mid-lvl
clouds thru mid-afternoon before giving way to high clouds. Skies
will clear out tonight. Winds will be out of the SSW this morning but
will veer to the west by late morning as a cold front slowly
approaches and moves through the terminals. This afternoon winds will
continue to veer to the northwest before becoming light and variable




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