Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 172309
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-freezing conditions expected tonight.  A flurry or
two could not be ruled out with any lingering cloud cover.

- Below normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) are expected to continue
into Monday.

- Warming conditions expected Tuesday with dry conditions
  continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Northerly flow across the central US leading to below normal
temperatures.  Cumulostratus has spilled in from the north, and is
coincident with the dendritic layer leading to incredibly efficient
ice production and the potential for a few flurries at the surface.
Modest cold air advection is expected to continue throughout the
night.  While we will loose convective element with the setting of
the sun, boundary layer will likely remain somewhat mixed with cold
air advection remaining.  As a result, expect gusty northwest winds
with partly cloudy skies with the potential for an isolated flurry
or two throughout the night. 925 hpa temps fall to near -7 C by
tomorrow morning, leading to widespread temperatures well below
freezing overnight.  Growing degree days 50 range from 70 to 120
across the region, which is a little shy of where we would like to
be for frost freeze headlines so will continue to just message
freezing conditions without a freeze headline.

Temperatures will remain cool on Monday as surface ridge slides
south across the western high plains. As flow weakens through the
afternoon, temperatures across eastern Kansas into western Missouri
are expected to warm into the low to mid 40s.

Area of low pressure moving from central Canada into the Great Lakes
region will increase the pressure gradient Monday night leading to
non-diurnal temperatures Tuesday morning.  Dynamic warming continues
into the daylight hours on Tuesday leading to mild temperatures
returning for the first day of spring.  Cold front associated with
this wave is expected to move through the region Wednesday morning,
but dry nature of the atmosphere will keep conditions dry.

A couple of phased waves are expected to work into the central US
midweek creating a slight chance (~20 %) for precipitation Thursday
into Thursday night.

A more significant chance of precipitation is expected late next
weekend as a more organized trough digs into the western US and
shifts into the central US late in the weekend.  While this wave
appears to be fairly dynamic, limited amounts of moisture are
expected with southerly flow from the gulf not developing till
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Scattered to
possibly broken mid-level clouds, with bases around 5000 ft will
persist through the overnight hours, then diminish tomorrow
morning. Winds will be steady from the northwest through the
forecast. Winds may be gusty for the initial hour of the
forecast but those gusts will diminish quickly with sustained
winds of 10-12 kts expected through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB


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