000
FXUS63 KEAX 241121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Upper ridge over the High Plains will slowly shift eastward toward
the region today, with the ridge axis becoming somewhat stationary
from Missouri into Minnesota through the weekend. This will help
bring in warmer temperatures beginning today with highs likely rising
into the 80s by Sunday, depending on the extent of clouds and
precipitation.

This ridge will flatten slightly over the weekend, allowing multiple
weak waves to eject out of the Rockies and ride over the top of the
ridge. This will likely produce several rounds of thunderstorms
across the Plains and Midwest over the weekend, beginning as early
as late tonight. This activity will be aided by a recurring
nocturnal low-level jet which could cause the highest chances for
precipitation to be during the nighttime hours. Best focus for
thunderstorm activity Saturday through Sunday night will be across
Nebraska and Iowa where the track of these weak impulses will align
with the nose of the low-level jet. However, should convection
congeal into a convective complex, propagation vectors would favor
this activity dropping southward into northern Missouri. Timing any
such activity remains a challenge, so continued to broad brush chance
PoPs across most of the area beginning late tonight and persisting
through early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

The medium range forecast features a return of above normal
temperatures, along with renewed chances for thunderstorms towards
next weekend.  By Monday, mid-level ridging will slowly begin to
develop, but will likely remain sufficiently suppressed to allow for
renewed convection late Monday afternoon and Monday night over the
northern half of the CWA. However by Tuesday, increased troughing in
the southwestern CONUS will lead to increasing heights in the
midsection of the nation, shoving the effective baroclinic zone into
the Great Lakes.  The result will be dry conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 80s.

By Thursday, precipitation chances will begin to increase as the
upper trough in the Southwest begins to eject eastward. The ECMWF
has a much more meridional component to the mid-level flow, as
opposed to the more broad southwesterly flow of the GFS, which
results in timing differences of precipitation between the solutions
by about 12 hours.  Nevertheless, will begin to increase PoPs by
Thursday afternoon as temperatures remain in the 80s heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Mid/high clouds will stream overhead today while conditions remain
VFR. Any precipitation over KS should stay well west of the KC
terminals through the evening. May see additional convection develop
over IA overnight and drop south/southeast into MO. Better chances
for rain will be near IRK. Chances for MCI/STJ are not high enough to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel