Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151104

604 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms were developing over northwest Missouri into
portions of Iowa and Nebraska. This was in response to increasing
large scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough located over the
eastern Dakotas and weak warm air advection. Thus far, convective
coverage has been rather underwhelming compared to solutions from
earlier model runs. The latest guidance depicts a drier tropospheric
profile and likewise much less QPF generation. Based on the current
trends, hard to disagree with trending a little lower on
precipitation chances for today. However, still expect some increase
in convective activity over the forecast area, potentially
before/around sunrise, as continued moistening and warm air
advection upon a 35kt veered low level jet yield a somewhat
conducive environment. Otherwise, a shallow convective band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the surface
cold front as it pushes southward, although the highest probabilities
for precipitation may reside just south of the CWA by late
afternoon. Temperatures today will be coolest north of Interstate 70
where cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the area upon the
frontal passage will keep highs in the mainly in the 60s, with
middle 70s expected over the southern half of the area. Cloud cover
will clear from north to south during the afternoon/evening hours as
drier air move into the region, eventually becoming clear overnight.
Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight, and with
a good radiational cooling environment, expect to see low
temperatures fall into the 40s in many locations.

Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slowly moves off to the east of the
area on Tuesday, providing a cool post-frontal day with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
frontal boundary will begin to retreat northward Tuesday night over
Kansas, and with isentropic ascent, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to move back into the area on Wednesday, with
continued chances for convection during the day. Maximum readings
will be warmer, with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Northwest cyclonic flow at the start of the period will quickly be
replaced by building heights as mid-level high pressure takes form
across the southern Plains. Closer to the surface...a stalled
north-south oriented frontal boundary will serve as a focus for
early morning showers and thunderstorms as strengthening warm air
advection interacts with said front. Based on good agreement between
the operational long range models...have maintained slgt chc-chc
mention across the western and southern third of the fcst area early
Thursday morning. Lingering shwrs/storms will quickly be replaced by
warming temps Thursday afternoon as 850 temps range anywhere from
15-18C across the lwr Missouri Vly. This should support middle to
upper 70s across much of the region...with even warmer temps
expected on Friday /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as warm air advection
continues. Fairly big pattern change anticipated by the weekend as
upper ridging breaks down and CONUS flow becomes increasingly split
as large upper low takes shape over California. As this
occurs...increasing southwest flow across the eastern Pacific will
allow the remnants of Hurricane Odile to translate northeast with
time over the Desert Southwest...central Rockies...and eventually
into the central Plains. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary associated
with a northern stream disturbance will begin approaching from the
northwest which should eventually allow deep tropical moisture
associated with the remnant tropical system into our area.
Surprisingly...fcst models are very much in agreement on this
scenario and thus have maintained high chc pops Saturday into
Saturday night across much of the region. Beyond this...strong high
pressure to build in from the northern Plains which will provide dry
and cool conditions through the conclusion of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Current VFR conditions should be replaced by MVFR ceilings in the
next couple hours at TAF sites as stratus expands southward.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of
TAF sites through late morning into the early afternoon. Thereafter,
drier air will allow for a gradual improvement in ceilings, with a
return to VFR by late afternoon.




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