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000
FXUS63 KEAX 172037
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

It has a very interesting afternoon weather wise, featuring a 200
mile long band of rain that has an average width of 5 miles. This
mesoscale banded feature has been handled quite well by the models
over the past few days, and setup exactly where predicted. The
elongated area of mid level baroclinity, tied a shortwave impulse
over western Oklahoma, will gradually shift southeast through early
this evening. Light rain will continue over Linn and Bates counties
for the next several hours, with a few sprinkles across surrounding
counties (Cass, Miami, Henry), and come to an end by 00Z.

Elsewhere, high clouds streaming northeast from the aforementioned
trough will steadily clear from northwest to southeast, leaving clear
skies and light winds overnight. Readings over the nrn half of the
CWA should bottom out just above freezing at 2m, with areas of frost
likely in sheltered areas.

For Friday, upper ridging will amplify just west of the area, with a
dry light easterly flow at the surface. Despite the chilly start, a
strong April sun angle will boost afternoon temperatures into the
middle and upper 60s. Low level southerlies will return on Saturday
with highs into the middle 70s.

The upper ridge will pass east of the area Saturday night, and flow
trajectories suggest that an elevated mixed layer will advect
northeast from the southern Plains. The GFS, discounted yesterday for
its early and very wet forecast for Sunday, has now come around to
the preferred European solution keeping precipitation mainly west of
the area during the day. A slow moving southern stream trough will
meander into the area Sunday night, before being swept eastward by a
much stronger northern stream wave on Monday. Large scale ascent and
modest instability should be sufficient for scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday morning
(perhaps beginning later Monday afternoon ern KS/NW MO), but the
degree of instability forecast and weak winds suggest little chance
of strong to severe storms once the activity progresses into the
eastern Plains.

In the wake of this system, a touch cooler, but certainly drier, air
will arrive along the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure
that will graze the area Monday and Tuesday. Beyond this time frame,
the focus will shift toward a powerful Spring western CONUS trough
that typically suggests that the beginning of severe weather season
is upon us. In the meantime, the Day 7 forecast for Wednesday shows
unseasonably warm and increasingly humid air surging north into the
region with a high degree of confidence. Would not be surprised to
see 80 degree temperatures in many areas as an EML/thermal ridge overspreads
the area behind some possible morning elevated convection north of
the advancing warm front.

As it is the season of change, this will be my last forecast serving
the great folks of central/northern Missouri and eastern Kansas...as
I head back east toward Appalachia. It has been a distinct pleasure
serving you for the past 9 years. I hope these discussions have
served both an educational and scientific purpose in providing
you...the media, emergency managers, spotters, first responders and
the public...the necessary information to be informed and most of
all, prepared. Best wishes to all of you.

Bookbinder

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Broken strato-cumulus with bases at or just above 2 kft will begin to
scatter out across the KC terminals within the next hour. This will
leave broken mid cloud ceilings around 15 kft through much of the
afternoon.

Northerly winds will become light and variable by late afternoon,
and will remain nearly calm overnight into early Friday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
AVIATION...Bookbinder