Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 282106

306 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

Issued at 306 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

In the short term, the main feature to watch will be a cold front
and its parent shortwave trough that will sweep through the region
on Monday evening. Although the system is currently supporting some
light snow across central and eastern MT, the already limited
moisture associated with it will continue to diminish and will
likely slide more south than east through the central Plains Monday,
remaining mainly west of the forecast area. Have kept a few tenths
of an inch of snowfall brushing far northwest MO late tomorrow
afternoon through the evening, but even this may be overdoing what
the wave is capable of producing this far east. Elsewhere, model
soundings indicate a fairly deep layer in the snow growth zone, and
at least 80% RH in this layer with modest lift as the wave passes
over, so have broad brushed scattered flurries throughout the CWA
from 00z- 12z Tuesday.

Quiet and very chilly conditions are expected behind the front as
925 mb temperatures fall into the -14 to -16 degree C range. This
will translate to lows in the single digits on Tuesday morning, and
our first below zero temperatures of the season Wednesday morning.
Surface high pressure will remain west of the CWA, allowing north
northeast winds to remain sustained at 5 to 10 mph as temperatures
drop, resulting in wind chills below zero area-wide Wednesday AM,
and as low as -15 to -18 degrees in far northwest MO both mornings.

Model spread remains large for the weekend system that will develop
over southern CA Wednesday-Thursday and lift northeastward into the
central Plains Friday-Saturday. Precipitation looks fairly probable
especially across the southeastern half of the CWA, but precip type
is still in question. Initial precip is likely to be associated with
WAA/elevated warm front, indicating a possibility of mixed wintry
precipitation (freezing rain or sleet). Depending on how far north
the surface warm front can lift, precip may briefly change over to
rain or may stay mixed, but should eventually transition to snow
late Friday night or Saturday as the surface low pushes east of the
CWA. Due to uncertainties in the track, timing, and precipitation
amounts associated with the system it is still too early to even
hazard a guess at snow accumulations, but at least a period of
accumulating snow is indicated in both the EC and GFS. Temperatures
will also depend on the system`s track, but frigid, below normal
conditions are possible just beyond the end of the forecast period
in the wake of the weekend system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually back to the southeast this evening and tonight,
but at speeds less than 10 kts. A midlevel cloud deck between 10-15
kft is expected to build southward into the area between 12z-15z
Monday, and will linger through the end of the forecast period.




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