884
FXUS63 KEAX 020829
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat and humidity gradually build through end of week and into
  first half of the weekend.
  - High temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s
  - Heat Index values into the mid-upper 90s, possible ~100 in
    urban areas

* 4th of July/Independence Day: Low (<25-30%) chance for
  showers/storms in the afternoon and evening over eastern Kansas
  and western Missouri.
  - Chances increase (30-50%) and overspread the area overnight and
    into the weekend.

* Unsettled pattern into next week, currently yielding sporadic
  storm chances and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Quiet and mostly clear conditions reside across much of the area
currently. GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery does show scattered
fog development, predominantly through central and eastern Missouri,
along with some scattered high level clouds. This fog development is
expected to be similar to previous night in that it will primarily
be relegated to prone areas and quickly dissipate in the morning
given the clear skies and rapidly increasingly diurnal heating post-
sunrise. Further W/NW, various GOES imagery clearly shows compact
shortwave disturbance gliding across central/eastern Nebraska within
the broader NW flow. This MCS/MCV is of casual note given its
trajectory, which could take it into portions of NW/N Missouri.
Early morning SPC Mesoanalysis depicts a widely unsupportive
environment out ahead of this activity, given the widespread surface
ridge and dry air mass. However, the convective activity primarily
resides on the leading edge of LLJ induced moisture return. HRRR/RAP
runs overnight have handled its placement and initial progression
well, and are adamant on it rapidly falling apart over the next
couple of hours. Unfortunately, reality has yet to truly show that.
Radar depictions over central Nebraska suggest that southward
building of weak/moderate convection may be the prevailing solution
until LLJ weakens this morning/after sunrise. This may bring NE
Kansas/NW Missouri into play before fully subsiding. Will keep an
eye on this activity over the next couple of hours...

Remainder of work week and into Independence Day/4th of July will be
highlighted by temperatures a couple/few degrees warmer and re-
moistening of the boundary layer as southerly flow returns today and
remains for coming days. Nothing outrageous is expected by any
stretch with the peak 850mb thermal ridge remaining displaced west,
but confidence remains high in temperatures back around 90/low 90s
and dew points climbing back into the upper 60s/low 70s. This too
results in heat index values back into the mid/upper 90s. Possible
KC Urban Heat island flirts with heat index values around 100.
Progression will see temperatures return first, today actually, with
upper 60s/low 70s dew points lagging a day or so. Many will note
this is pretty normal for July, and they would not be wrong. But
considering the Independence Day holiday, it is at least casually
noteworthy. Heat and humidity of any kind can be sneaky when there
is an expectation for ample outdoor festivities. Be sure to stay
hydrated and prevent sunburns on the 4th, let alone surrounding
days!

By the 4th, precipitation chances begin to creep back into the area
forecast with the established southerly flow and moistening of the
boundary layer. Not large scale features are expected for the
holiday, keeping the daytime and evening on the dry side. But, as we
work into the night and especially overnight Friday, chances do
begin to increase. At this juncture, moderate to high confidence in
scattered convection over central/eastern Kansas in response to an
increasing LLJ, and may see activity spread into the CWA (far
eastern Kansas/western Missouri). It may be late enough that
most/all outdoor pyrotechnic activities may be complete. Otherwise,
this activity and general progression of PoPs overspreads the area
overnight Friday and Saturday as an embedded shortwave pushes the
upper ridge eastward. This introduces more widespread/broad lift,
increasing PoPs into the 40% to 60% range. Put another way,
confidence in convective activity over the wide area is quite high,
but PoPs do not necessarily reflect this because the areal coverage
is expected to be more scattered in nature. To summarize, confidence
in convection over Missouri is high into the weekend, but the areal
coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature. Point soundings
depict poor shear profiles overall for organization, but the
moisture/thermal profiles suggest an opportunity or two for enhanced
downdrafts or brief hail with storms that are able to initiate.
Frontal boundary move across the area Sunday, continuing at least
some convective opportunity, but model consensus too begins to
diverge here. Expect details to continue to come into focus over
coming cycles.

Peering into next week, flow pattern weak and unsettled across the
region with potential for multiple shortwaves move through and/or
convective complexes moving out of the Central/Northern Plains.
Suffice it to say confidence is severely limited and reflected by
semi-persistent low-end (15%-30%) NBM PoPs. Regardless of
shower/storm chances, this pattern suggests seasonable temperatures
to remain, mid 80s - low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions with just some passing high clouds are expected
through the period. Light and variable winds tonight should
become south southwesterly by early Wednesday morning, remaining
light (8 knots or less).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Williams