Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 141837
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Today through Friday Afternoon/

As of this writing, showers and storms have formed along a dryline
just west of our Big Country counties. convection will remain
possible in the northwest as the dryline continues to move
eastward. Large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats.

Uncertainty remains on whether or not early afternoon storms will
fire up out near the dryline when it reaches closer as it moves
further into the region, as continued mesoscale lift will be
needed to completely erode the 850mb warm nose. Though continuing
to scatter, any lingering clouds atop our western counties will
play a factor in daytime heating and destabilization. Current
ACARS soundings show that the cap over DFW is still there, but has
significantly eroded since the 12Z RAOB. This conditionality will
keep rain chances closer to the I-35 low, as most guidance does
not have storms forming until late afternoon. As such, will
continue to advertise a low isolated chance for storms. If a
parcel of air were able to overcome the cap and produce a storm,
large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

The main show for today will likely take place late this afternoon
into this evening. As of current guidance, most CAMs are favoring a
later bloom of convection near the I-35 corridor around 5-6 PM this
evening. The locations that have the best chance to observe severe
weather are generally near and east of a Gainesville-Waco-Athens
curve, where HREF guidance shows the majority of members
initializing convection. Forecast soundings indicate a free-
convecting atmosphere with abundant CAPE, deep layer shear, and
steep mid-level lapse rates between 8-9 degrees. This environment
will promote severe storms capable of primarily large hail and
damaging wind gusts. A tertiary tornado threat will be present and
cannot be discounted, especially in the northeast (near/east
I-35, north I-20), where SPC currently has a 5-10% risk. Over the
afternoon and evening, storms will move northeast.

Meanwhile well to our north, a shortwave disturbance will move to
the northeast, sending its attendant cold front southward through
the Central Plains. Currently, the front is draped across Southern
Colorado and Kansas, and will continue to slowly move towards the
Red River today. The front will eventually reach the Red River
around 11PM-12AM, becoming a mesoscale focus for additional
shower and storms tonight. Best chances for precipitation
will be in the East/northeast overnight into Friday morning, with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats and a tertiary
tornado threat.

A shortwave disturbance will transit around the quasi-stationary
cut-off low over the Desert Southwest, increasing isentropic
ascent overtop the post-frontal airmass and allowing for morning
SW-NE moving clusters. The front will end up slowing as it moves
across Central Texas, eventually stalling just south of our CWA
border by Friday afternoon. This boundary will become a focus for
afternoon storm development across Central and South Texas. There
is a severe threat with the afternoon activity, but the location
heavily depends on the location of the front. Nonetheless, hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
/Friday through next Wednesday/

The amplified but largely stagnant upper level pattern will
prolong the period of unsettled weather across North and Central
Texas through the weekend. A Rex Block will continue to dominate
upper level flow over the western CONUS while an expansive upper
level ridge will be anchored just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Situated in between these two features, North and Central Texas
should remain positioned beneath persistent southwest flow. At the
surface, a slow-moving cold front extending from a low passing
through the Ohio River Valley will extend southwestward into the
Hill Country.

At the beginning of the period, convection will likely be ongoing
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. As the cold front slowly
sags southward, showers and storms should continue to develop
along and ahead of the front, with the more buoyant warm sector
settling near or just south of our southern zones. The CAMs are
beginning to indicate the potential for a break in convection
lasting into the early to mid afternoon Friday, as the morning
convection exits to the east and south. Delayed heating amid
partial cloud breaks may be sufficient for some destabilization,
which could allow for additional thunderstorm development south of
a Killeen- Waco-Palestine line Friday afternoon. The potential
effective shear / instability profiles may be supportive of a few
strong or severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and gusty
downburst winds.

Isentropic ascent on the cool side of the surface boundary, with
influence from passing perturbations in the mid levels, should
continue to create chances for showers and elevated thunderstorms
as far north as the Red River through the weekend. On Saturday, a
northern stream upper-level trough will rotate out of NW Manitoba
towards Ontario and the Great Lakes. At the surface, the cold
front trailing the deepening eastern Canada low will reach the
Southern Plains by Sunday. This front will deliver a reinforcing
shot of cooler and drier air and finally bring an end to the last
vestiges of precipitation.

Early to mid next week, the cutoff upper level low pressure
system over AZ/NM is forecast to gradually weaken/fill before
becoming an open wave and shifting eastward across the southern
Rockies. This will set-up returning storm chances across North and
Central Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. Cloudy skies and
forecast rainfall will help to ease the recent early spring heat
with daytime temperatures generally in the 60s and lower 70s
beginning Friday and lasting through next Wednesday. The most
(widespread) anomalously cool temperatures are expected early
next week in the wake of the reinforcing front. These temperatures
will be, on average, 5 to 10 degrees below climate normals for
this time of the year.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Clouds will continue to scatter out over the afternoon hours at
all TAF sites. DAL and GKY remain MVFR and will scatter out in the
next hour or so, while ACT will remain a bit more entrenched.

Scattered showers and storms will be on and off in the vicinity of
the TAF sites over the next 24-30 hours, with the best chances for
on-station impacts generally between 01-05Z for D10. Expect
poor conditions and increased winds and gusts if a storm goes over
the airport.

A front will move through and provide additional rain chances late
tonight. The front will shift winds to the north at D10 around 06Z
and ACT around 08Z.

MVFR cigs will return to ACT around 05Z and possibly DFW around
09Z in the early morning hours along with additional VCTS. While
the cigs will be temporary at D10, MVFR will stick around through
the end of the period for ACT.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  68  52  67  55 /  80  50  20  50  40
Waco                62  70  56  66  58 /  70  80  30  60  50
Paris               57  67  50  68  53 /  90  20  10  20  30
Denton              54  66  48  66  51 /  70  40  10  50  30
McKinney            56  67  50  67  53 /  80  40  20  40  40
Dallas              59  68  53  67  56 /  80  50  20  50  40
Terrell             59  68  53  67  55 /  80  50  20  40  50
Corsicana           64  72  57  69  59 /  80  70  30  50  60
Temple              63  73  55  67  57 /  70  80  30  70  60
Mineral Wells       54  68  49  64  51 /  50  60  20  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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